The Edmonton Oilers were not themselves on their five game road trip, which saw them win two games but lose three. Edmonton was lucky to have that solid a record, given the Grade A shot differential overall in the five games.
Edmonton gave up 14.2 Grade A shots per game, while creating 9.2 per game. This from a team that usually averages giving up just 12 Grade A shots per game, while creating about 15. They went from a +3 Grade A shots per game team these past few seasons to a -5 Grade A shots per game team so fr this season.
That’s not OK. That’s far from OK.
What is going wrong? Some says it’s the slog of two long seasons dragging into late June chasing the Stanley Cup. Others point to slumps from the top players, such as Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Evan Bouchard. Some say it’s too many ineffectual points shots from defencemen. Others will blame the constant line-changing of coach Kris Knoblauch, and his under-utilization of new players, especially Noah Philp. Others will point by an overall large of spark, of gamesmanship, of the giving-a-damn quotient, personified by the vanilla play of Trent Frederic, who was supposed to bring some ferocity.
There’s something to all of those explanations, but I’ll suggest the mystery of what ailed the Oilers on this five-game trip was best summed up by two former Oilers, Craig MacTavish and Jason Strudwick, now perhaps the two most astute regular commentators on Oilers hockey you’ll find.
They both point to the same thing, a lack of what former Oilers coach Glen Sather called: GTTFN, Go-to-the-f*ckin-net.
MacTavish speaks
Said MacTavish on Monday to Oilers Now host Bob Stauffer: “Connor (McDavid) talked about it the other day, about bodies and pucks to the net. That’s where you get lucky offensively. You make it happen by driving the net. What Mark Messier said from time to time, ‘You got to play the game like the back of the net’s boarded off and everything goes through the crease.’ The puck goes there, the bodies go through there, and you don’t go in behind the net because that’s historically a pretty safe area. And, you know, you got to get to the net. You got to pay the price there.”
Strudwick speaks
On his podcast Struddy’s World, Strudwick came to the same conclusion. “We’re going to talk about how they have to get into that type of winning mentality and the way they can do that. I believe that is to get to the middle of the ice more… As a (former NHL) defender, I loved it when guys would stay on the perimeter, whether it was shooting from the perimeter for a goaltenders or not driving the middle of the ice as a defender for me.
“You have to be decisive in your planning and your preparation as a team. Say, ‘We are going to get to middle of the ice.’ … Goalies don’t like it. Bodies moving in different directions. You saw how difficult it was for Stu Skinner to see that one goal last night with literally two Senators, like their butts together like this right in front of his face.
“That is a decision to go to the net. That’s a decision to carry the puck to middle of the net or to middle the ice and then shoot from the middle the ice. And I don’t think they’re doing any of those at all. Not enough.”
Strudwick and MacTavish make an excellent point. In your mind’s eye can you recall an example of an Oilers forward driving the puck to the net this year to score? David Tomasek did it a few times one game, but that’s all I can recall just now.
After Tomasek made three bull rushes in one game, he was promoted to the top line. Evidently the Oilers coaches are keen to reward that kind of play.
Hard plays on Grade A shots
If you’re of an analytical bent you will note that the in the past two years the Oilers made, on average, 8+ hard plays on the net every game to create Grade A shots. These are hard charges, jam shots, tips, goalie screens and board battles won to create Grade A shots. This year they are down to 6.1 per game.
Hard plays 7 games
One alternative theory
I do have one alternative theory to Strudwick and MacTavish’s take. This is going to be a less popular opinion because it’s harshly hammering on our defence, but what I’ve seen so far this year on the Oil blueline is a mess, with players like Darnell Nurse, Evan Bouchard, Ty Emberson, Troy Stecher and Brett Kulak performing well below their level of play in previous seasons.
As a group at even strength so far this year, the d-men are making significantly fewer major contributions to Grade A shots and significantly more mistakes on Grade A shots against.
Injuries to Jake Walman and Alec Regular haven’t helped but outside of Mattias Ekholm, they’ve all been playing like they want a one-way ticket to the American Hockey League.
Yes, this is a harsh assessment. And maybe the return of Jake Walman will help get them out of their collective offensive and defensive slumps.
I wonder if there’s a confidence issue at play here, players making mistakes, then worrying about making those mistakes, then making more, then getting blasted in Oil Country, then becoming tentative, then making even more.
Whatever it is, it’s time for them to tune out everything else, including (if my theory is correct) their own self-doubt, and bring their collective “A” games pronto. Why not?
They’ve all done it in the past. They can do it now.
Memento Mori.
Carpe Diem!
dmen 7 games
At the Cult of Hockey
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