The Calgary Flames have finally ended their eight game losing streak, beating the New York Rangers by a whopping score of 5–1. The Flames scored 25% of their total goals so far this season in just this one game alone. It’s good to see them finally start to find some offence; however, it does not discount the fact that their start to the season has been less than ideal.

The Flames are now 2–8–1, giving them five points over their first ten games. There are very loud whispers from the Flames media that a rebuild may be coming, as even Eric Francis has come out suggesting a rebuild should be on the horizon. If this is the case, where are the Flames likely to select in the first round of this upcoming draft?

I went back to analyze the first 10 games of each season from every team in the cap era, to note which starts are the most similar to the Flames, and where their first-round pick ended up being at season’s end. However, this doesn’t necessarily mean the player ended up on this team, as the team may have traded away their first-round pick. Each team listed had at most five points after the first 10 games of the season.

History of draft picks

SeasonTeamWinsLossesOTLPointsDraft Year1st Round Draft PickPlayer Drafted2024-25San Jose Sharks172420252Michael Misa2023-24Calgary Flames271520249Zayne Parekh2023-24San Jose Sharks091120241Macklin Celebrini2023-24Edmonton Oilers2715202431Ben Danford2021-22Montreal Canadiens280420221Juraj Salfkovsky2021-22Chicago Blackhawks280420226David Jiricek2021-22Arizona Coyotes091120223Logan Cooley2020-21Ottawa Senators1813202110Tyler Boucher2019-20Ottawa Senators271520205Jake Sanderson2018-19Los Angeles Kings271520195Alex Turcotte2018-19Detroit Red Wings172420196Moritz Seider2017-18Arizona Coyotes091120185Barrett Hayton2017-18Montreal Canadiens271520183Jesperi Kotkaniemi2015–16Columbus Blue Jackets280420163Pierre-Luc Dubois2015–16Calgary Flames271520166Matthew Tkachuk2015–16Anaheim Ducks1724201624Max Jones2015–16Toronto Maple Leafs172420161Auston Matthews2014-15Buffalo Sabers280420152Jack Eichel2013-14Buffalo Sabers181320142Sam Reinhart2012-13Washington Capitals2715201323Andre Burakovsky2011-12Columbus Blue Jackets181320122Ryan Murray2010-11New Jersey Devils271520114Adam Larsson2009-10Toronto Maple Leafs172420102Tyler Seguin2009-10Florida Panthers271520103Erik Gudbranson2008-09New York Islanders271520091John Tavares2007-08Winnipeg Jets280420083Zach Bogosian2006-07Arizona Coyotes280420073Kyle Turris2006-07Philadelphia Flyers271520072James Van Riemsdyk

A high draft pick is very likely

First things first, wow, there is a lot of talent listed in this table. Auston Matthews, Jack Eichel, Macklin Celebrini, John Tavares, Matthew Tkachuk, Logan Cooley, and more. There are so many star players in this table. Sure, some names ended up being misses as well, but many of these picks are quite high picks, which is exactly what the Flames would love to see if they do find themselves in the draft lottery.

Based on the above, more often than not, the team’s first-round draft pick ends up in a pretty optimal spot. For all teams that have secured at most five points in their first 10 games since 2005:

89% of the draft picks ended up being in the top 10

71% of the draft picks ended up being in the top 5

61% of the draft picks ended up being in the top 4

57% of the draft picks ended up being in the top 3

36% of the draft picks ended up being in the top 2

14% of the draft picks ended up being first overall

This is fantastic news for Calgary, as based on this historical data, they have a greater than 50% chance to draft one of Gavin McKenna, Keaton Verhoeff, or Ivan Stenberg. The first two names have been discussed as franchise talents, potentially generational. Stenberg, on the other hand, may not get the same hype as the other two, but he is flirting with being a point per game in the SHL as an 18-year-old. No question about it, he would be a potential star for the Flames.

Additionally, of all teams that have secured at most five points in their first 10 games, the average draft pick positioning is sixth overall. If Calgary ends up with the sixth overall pick in the upcoming draft, this would be the highest they have drafted since selecting Matthew Tkachuk in 2016.

Now, if you are curious about what the data looks like for teams that have only secured five points in their first 10 games of the season:

82% of the draft picks ended up being in the top 10

64% of the draft picks ended up being in the top 5

45% of the draft picks ended up being in the top 4

36% of the draft picks ended up being in the top 3

18% of the draft picks ended up being in the top 2

9% of the draft picks ended up being first overall

Additionally, the average draft pick for teams with five points in their first 10 games is 8th overall. However, it is important to note that this is somewhat skewed by the Edmonton Oilers and their start from 2023, where they started the year 2–7–1. However, this same year, they made an incredible run to make their way to the Stanley Cup Finals. Because they have a Stanley Cup-calibre roster and have had one for quite some time, I would consider this an outlier. If we don’t include Edmonton’s season, the average draft pick ends up being sixth overall once again. This is fantastic news for the franchise that is hoping to take full advantage of this very talented and deep draft class.

Flames might have a star on their hands

The numbers indicate that the Flames might find themselves with a top-five pick by year’s end, and there is a strong likelihood that this pick is in the top three as well. If this pick does end up being in the top 3, this would the the highest draft pick in Flames history, and it would give the team a big boost in building their team to get back to a contending status. This season may be a long and gruelling watch, but the numbers don’t lie; the future is starting to look very bright for this franchise.

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