This in from hockey stats analyst Brad McPherson, one stat he’s come up with that best explains the weirdness of the Edmonton Oilers after the first ten games of the 2025-26 season.

Said McPherson on-line, “There are 106 forward lines (in the NHL) that have played 30 minutes together this season. That is an average of 3.3 lines per team. The Oilers have ZERO!”

The endless line combinations of the Oilers have been a defining feature of the team so far this year. Coach Kris Knoblauch hasn’t found one trio that’s really worked, though the newly-formed threesome of Leon Draisaitl, Jack Roslovic and Vasily Podkolzin were on the ice for two goals for in Game 10 against Vancouver. They are the first Oilers line to manufacture two even strength goals this entire year.

Part of the issue is that the Oilers are breaking in seven new forwards this year, Andrew Mangiapane, Jack Roslovic, David Tomasek, Noah Philp, Ike Howard, Matt Savoie and Curtis Lazar.

And part of the issue that not even the usually prolific combo of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl have been able to score much at even strength.

And part is that when players like Tomasek, Howard, Savoie and Podkolzin have played well, they’ve been promoted to the top line with McDavid, then quickly played their least effective hockey of the year.

But some fans will also suggest that the biggest issue is a too itchy trigger finger from Knoblauch when it comes to going to the blender and mixing up his lines.

My own sense is that Knoblauch’s actions make some sense, as he’s been willing to stick with solid two-way lines in the past. He just hasn’t found any he can rely on so far this year. That said, I suspect we’ll see more of Draisaitl, Roslovic and Podkolzin.

Overall, the team’s play has been mediocre, just like their record of four wins, four losses and two overtime losses suggests.

For years, our old friend Bruce McCurdy did 10 game segment reviews of the Oilers for the Cult of Hockey. McCurdy was a master of such work, just as he was the master of game grades. I’ll try to do some of what he did, carrying on with his 10-game segment review project, starting with a review of what he found in recent previous seasons.

Segment Review #1: Games 1 to 10

Oilers 10 games segments reviews 2022-25 (compiled by Bruce McCurdy from Natural Stat Trick)

2022-23

Games 1 -10: 7-3-0, .700 | 41 GF, 32 GA | 334 SF, 338 SA | 1.028 PDO
Games 11-20: 3-7-0, .300 | 25 GF, 40 GA | 304 SF, 346 SA | .964 PDO
Games 21-30: 7-3-0, .700 | 43 GF, 30 GA | 317 SF, 313 SA | 1.040 PDO
Games 31-40: 4-4-2, .500 | 33 GF, 31 GA | 332 SF, 289 SA | .992 PDO
Games 41-50: 7-1-2, .800 | 45 GF, 28 GA | 367 SF, 310 SA | 1.032 PDO
Games 51-60: 4-2-4, .600 | 43 GF, 36 GA | 360 SF, 324 SA | 1.008 PDO
Games 61-70: 7-3-0, .700 | 44 GF, 34 GA | 295 SF, 323 SA | 1.044 PDO
Games 71-80: 9-0-1, .950 | 44 GF, 22 GA | 364 SF, 289 SA | 1.045 PDO

2023-24

Games 1 – 10: 2-7-1, .250 | 27 GF, 41 GA | 334 SF, 302 SA | .945 PDO
Games 11-20: 5-5-0, .500 | 39 GF, 33 GA | 328 SF, 272 SA | .998 PDO
Games 21-30: 7-3-0, .700 | 37 GF, 29 GA | 371 SF, 271 SA | .993 PDO
Games 31-40: 10-0-0, 1.000 | 37 GF, 16 GA | 340 SF, 278 SA | 1.051 PDO
Games 41-50: 7-3-0, .700 | 35 GF, 25 GA | 310 SF, 284 SA | 1.025 PDO
Games 51-60: 7-2-1, .750 | 37 GF, 29 GA | 324 SF, 286 SA | 1.013 PDO
Games 61-70: 5-3-2, .600 | 38 GF, 30 GA | 364 SF, 294 SA | 1.002 PDO
Games 71-80: 6-2-2, .700 | 39 GF, 23 GA | 341 SF, 268 SA | 1.029 PDO

2024-25

Games 1 –10: 4-5-1, .450 | 22 GF, 35 GA | 343 SF, 261 SA | .930 PDO
Games 11-20: 6-3-1, .650 | 33 GF, 27 GA | 318 SF, 249 SA | .995 PDO
Games 21-30: 8-2-0, .800 | 42 GF, 22 GA | 314 SF, 281 SA | 1.055 PDO
Games 31-40: 7-2-1, .750 | 35 GF, 25 GA | 304 SF, 258 SA | 1.018 PDO
Games 41-50: 7-3-0, .700 | 34 GF, 26 GA | 317 SF, 273 SA | 1.012 PDO
Games 51-60: 3-6-1, .350 | 29 GF, 38 GA | 324 SF, 323 SA | .972 PDO
Games 61-70: 6-3-1, .650 | 34 GF, 29 GA | 315 SF, 252 SA | .993 PDO
Games 71-82: 7-5-0, .583 | 30 GF, 33 GA | 387 SF, 312 SA | .972 PDO

Over the full 2024-25 season, the OIlers had a .616 points percentage, a 54.3 Shots For%, a 52.4 Goals For% and a PDO of .992.

This year, in the first 10 game segment, here are Edmonton’s numbers:

2025-26

Games 1-10: 4-4-2, .500 | 29 GF, 31 GA, 48.3% | 291 SF, 238 SA, 55.0% | .969 PDO

Games 1-10 Grade A shots for 131, Grade A against 137, 48.9 GrA shots% | 5-alarm shots for 60, 5-alarm shots against 53, 53.1 5-alarm shots%.

Edmonton’s won-loss record is just OK but a bit better than they did last year, with their shots percentage a bit worse but their goals percentage much better. They had worse puck luck/shooting accuracy/goaltending last year, reflected in their .930 PD0, but still haven’t had great puck luck/shooting accuracy/goaltending this year, as reflected in their .969 PD0.

Video analysis at the Cult of Hockey had the the Oilers with 54.3% of Grade A shots and 52.6% of the most dangerous, 5-alarm shots, in the first 10 games of 2024-25.

This year they’re down in Grade A shots at 49.8%, but ahead in 5-alarmers, 53.1%, so a mixed bag there.

Overall, though, when it comes to Grade A shot metrics, they’re playing like a mediocre team, exactly as their record indicates they are.

Key takeway:  Yes, the Oilers are out-shooting opposing teams on average, but they’re not getting more dangerous shots than the opposition, they’re getting about the same.

Player GradesPlayer Grades Game 1 to 10

Player Grades Game 1 to 10

When it comes to individual performance as ranked by Kurt Leavins and myself in game grades, we see that at even strength Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins are all playing well.

Most of the other players are under-performing reasonable expectations for them, with Evan Bouchard, Trent Frederic, Ike Howard,  Troy Stecher and Ty Emberson struggling the most so far.

Individual contributions/mistakes on Grade A shots at even strength

We see the same three players, McDavid, Draisaitl and RNH, all doing well when it comes to both creating Grade A shots at even strength and defending against them.

McDavid’s Grade A shots plus-minus per game of +2.46 is essentially the same as last season when he was at +2.5 per game.  But he’s down from his outstanding 2023-24 season high of +2.94 per game.

Draisaitl is down from his outstanding +2.99 Grade A shots per game last year, but still going strong at +2.17 per game.

RNH’s +1.88 per game is an improvement on his Grade A shots plus-minus from the past three years. He’s never been a better two-way player.

Adam Henrique is also off to a solid start, so the Oil’s issue is not with the team’s centres. It’s on the wings and on defence, where all the regular players are down significantly from last year. Edmonton’s d-men are struggling immensely.

The rebound of this team will start with the forwards combining and connecting more at even strength, and with the d-men playing a better game collectively, not making so may rash pinches, passing the puck more adroitly, and playing sounder positional defence in their own zone.

Grade A 10 games

Grade A 10 games

At the Cult of Hockey

STAPLES: Even as Oilers kinda stink, Edmonton was just ranked NHL’s second “most watchable” team

LEAVINS: Edmonton Oilers claw back to earn a single point in Vancouver: Cult of Hockey Player Grades

LEAVINS: You miss 100% of the shots you never take – 9 Things.

STAPLES: Kraken solve the Oilers 3-2 in Seattle