The Washington Capitals (6-3-0) and Dallas Stars (5-3-1) square off Tuesday. Puck drop from the American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas, is set for 8:30 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NHL odds around the Capitals vs. Stars odds and make our expert NHL picks and predictions.
2024-25 season series: Split 1-1
The Capitals were overwhelmed Saturday night, falling 7-1 to the Ottawa Senators at home as a -118 favorite as the Over (5.5) cashed. G Charlie Lindgren got roughed up, allowing all 7 goals on 34 shots. D Trevor van Riemsdyk scored Washington’s lone tally in the third period. Despite the lopsided defeat, the Capitals have still won 6 of their last 8 games.
The Stars capped a strong weekend with their second straight victory, edging the Nashville Predators 3-2 Sunday. Dallas delivered as a -154 road favorite as the Under (6) cashed. RW Mikko Rantanen provided the decisive tally midway through the third period, his fourth goal of the young season. Centers Oskar Bäck and Wyatt Johnston also scored, helping the Stars continue their winning momentum.
Capitals at Stars odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11 a.m. ET.
Moneyline (ML): Capitals +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Stars -140 (bet $140 to win $100)Puck line (PL)/Against the spread (ATS): Capitals +1.5 (-210) | Stars -1.5 (+170)Over/Under (O/U): 6 (O: -105 | U: -115)Capitals at Stars projected goalies
Logan Thompson (5-1-0, 1.50 GAA, .937 SV%) vs. Jake Oettinger (4-2-1, 2.98 GAA, .899 SV%)
Thompson enters Tuesday riding a 5-start winning streak, most recently backstopping a 5-1 victory over the Columbus Blue Jackets Friday with 34 saves on 35 shots (.971 SV%). His last meeting with Dallas came in the 2024 postseason while with the Vegas Golden Knights, a 4-2 loss in Game 4 in which he allowed 3 goals on 31 shots.
Oettinger ended a 3-game skid Saturday with a 3-2 win over the Carolina Hurricanes, turning aside 26 of 28 shots (.929 SV%). The Stars’ netminder has dominated Washington throughout his career. In his most recent matchup with the Capitals Dec. 16, 2024, he stopped 25 of 26 in a 3-1 victory. Oettinger is 5-0-0 lifetime vs. Washington with a 1.49 GAA, .952 SV% and 1 shutout.
Capitals at Stars picks and predictionsPrediction
Capitals 2, Stars 1
BET CAPITALS (+115).
I really like the Capitals as a live underdog Tuesday. Washington has quietly turned into one of the best defensive teams in the league early on, holding opponents to just 2.2 goals per game. It isn’t doing anything flashy — it’s just incredibly disciplined, sound structurally and tough to break down at 5-on-5.
And honestly, a huge part of that is Thompson. He’s been lights-out to start the year, winning 5 straight with a save percentage hovering around the .950 mark. Yes, Oettinger has a perfect career record against Washington, but right now Thompson is simply playing better hockey.
Another reason I’m backing the Caps? They’ve been great on the road — 3-0-0 so far — and they don’t rattle easily in tough environments. Spencer Carbery has this group completely bought in, and the veteran leadership makes sure they stay steady when games get tight.
Dallas is still dangerous, but it has been inconsistent. It gives up goals in bunches at times and can be slow getting into games. If Washington keeps the tempo where it wants it, protects the middle of the ice and turns this into a grind-it-out style matchup, I think it can absolutely walk out of there with a win.
Getting the Caps at plus money? I’m grabbing it.
PASS.
There’s no need to play with the puck line when you’ve got the Capitals getting plus odds on the moneyline. I’m going to keep my wager there.
BET UNDER 6 (-115).
With 2 goaltenders in strong form, the Under is the smart play Tuesday. Thompson has been outstanding, and this matchup has a recent history of low scoring — the Under has cashed in 7 of the last 10 meetings. Washington is 5-3-2 to the Under in its last 10 games, while Dallas has gone Under in 5 straight. Expect a tight, defensive battle with goals at a premium.
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