With the Edmonton Oilers meeting the New York Rangers Thursday night, we’ve got three first overall picks on the playbill over the last 15 years.
One generational player, Connor McDavid, 2015, who already has 1,096 points and is only 29 years old.
One touch-every-base forward, McDavid’s teammate Ryan Nugent Hopkins, 2011, who is 30 games from 1,000 and has 760 points.
And one average left-winger, Rangers Alexis Lafreniere, 2020, who is five years into his NHL career and may be what he appears to be a player who gets a point about every second game.
Teenagers who go first, run a very large gamut, especially here. Nail Yakupov (2012) loved playing hockey in the best league in the world but didn’t think the game well enough (350 games, 136 points). McDavid wears the same Oilers jersey but, as athletes go, he’s is an uncommon man.
“Sometimes when players are first overall picks there’s an expectation they are generational talents and my experience is that’s not always the case. And when they’re not? I don’t think it’s (criticism) fair,” said Rangers head coach Mike Sullivan.
“It doesn’t mean they’re not good players, it’s just that they’re not generational. How often does that (word) generational come around?”
Sullivan would know because he had Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin when he was behind the Pittsburgh bench for two Stanley Cups.
“You had two,” a reporter pointed out.
“I did,” said Sullivan.
“When you look at the history of the league generation players are in a unique category. There’s a lot of very good players in our league but generational talent is a whole different level,” he said
Same opinion, different voice.
“I’ve gotten away from using the word generational when I’m looking at junior players. Unless a player comes along and shows he’s Connor McDavid, I’m not calling anybody generational,” said TSN’s Craig Button.
Over the last 20 years or so, McDavid, Crosby, who just got his 1,700th point, and Alex Ovechkin, one goal from 900, are locks as generational after being the first name out the hat at the draft. Over the last 40 years, you can add Mario Lemieux to that exclusive club.
But, it’s rare group.
“Look at all the great Oilers teams. Wayne Gretkzky was generational. Mark Messier was a superstar, Paul Coffey was a great player. Bobby Orr was generational. Today, Cale Makar might turn out to be generational,” Button said.
Truth is, Malkin (1,392 points) who was the pick right after Ovechkin in 2004, may be in the ultra-elite category, but not generational. Put him in with the supremely gifted winger Patrick Kane (three up rings and 1,348 points), along with centre Nathan MacKinnon (1,032 points and only 30) in Colorado. Going farther back, “Jumbo” Joe Thornton (Hart, Art Ross, 1,539 points).
New York Rangers’ Alexis Lafreniere (13) and Edmonton Oilers’ Brett Kulak (27) battle for the puck during first period NHL action in Edmonton on Saturday, November 23, 2024.
‘It’s been a mixed bag’ for Lafreniere: Sullivan
But, back to Lafreniere. When the Rangers won the lottery in 2020, they were dancing because they were getting a junior player averaging two points a game in Rimouski. He was a clear cut-above everybody else in junior, but as an NHLer he’s been meh. He’s played 391 games and has 197 points. His seasonal high is 59. So far this season, he has four points in 11 games.
Before the 2020 draft, Lafreniere’s competiveness and hockey smarts set him apart. He could drive the play as a winger, rare stuff. But, as an NHLer, his hockey IQ is still there but his fire? It hasn’t burned red-hot. And his legs? He’s only 24-years-old and other first overall picks like Vincent Lecavalier and Thornton certainly started slowly, too. Jumbo is in the Hall of Fame and Lecavalier finished 51 points from 1,000.
“Alexis was a helluva junior and he’s very talented and he showed a couple of years ago he could initiate and push the pace, with the Rangers a little better but last season and this, he’s not as fast,” said Button.
“Cole Caufield looks faster, Alexis Lafreniere looks slower. The game is getting faster by the minute. I never looked at him and said ‘he’s not a good skater’ but he’s not up to the pace of the game. It’s dropped off. He’s late arriving,” said Button.
Sullivan knows Lafreniere has skill, but…
“It’s been a mixed bag. He’s had some games where he’s played really well, some strong games” said Sullivan, in his first year running the show behind the Rangers’ bench.
But, facts are facts. Sam Carrick, the ex-Oiler, fourth-line, ultra-tough Rangers centre, has one more point than Lafreniere to start the season. Lafreniere landed a staggering seven-year deal worth $7.4 million AAV because he had one very strong playoff (14 points in 16 games) in 2024.
After 21, 31 and 39 points his first three seasons, he has exceeded 40 only twice. There’s been no explosive breakthrough. He may well play 1,000 games; he’s already played close to 400. He may get 650 points, but he may also be on more than one team because the winger leaves you wanting more with his abundant skill-set which was so much higher than his peers back in Quebec, and all across the Canadian Hockey League.
Button was a big fan before his draft year, but it hasn’t translated to the NHL.
“I think he’s going to fall into the 50-55 point range. That’s his ceiling. There’s enough body of work to say he’s better than what he is now but he’s not going to be a point-a-game player. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him traded,” said Button.
“He’s a talented guy who can create something out of nothing and we’ve moved him around our top six to find some combinations that could help us have more finish to our game,” added Sullivan.
“Obviously we have higher expectations from a production stand-point. Our message to him is make sure you’re playing the game the right way. Focus on the process and the by-product of that is you’ll get opportunities and when they do come, take advantage,” he said.
Igor Shesterkin #31 of the New York Rangers makes a second period save against Ryan Nugent-Hopkins #93 of the Edmonton Oilers at Madison Square Garden on March 16, 2025 in New York City.
Nugent-Hopkins ‘a Swiss army knife’
Over the last 20 years, first overall picks Auston Matthews (60-goal season, 406 goals total), MacKinnon (Hart trophy, scoring title) John Tavares (1,127 points), Steve Stamkos (583 goals) and Kane (Art Ross and Hart) have all been studs.
Yakupov is the loudest swing and a miss forward, clearly over the last 20 years.
Nugent-Hopkins is the poster-boy for Very Good Player. He’ll hit 1,000 games with Oilers on New Year’s Eve, if he stays healthy. With those 760 points, he should exceed 900 because he’s only 32. Again, if his body doesn’t break down.
“He’s (Nugent-Hopkins) been the brightest spot, brightest performance for us this year and it’s great to see at his age,” said Oiler defenceman Mattias Ekholm.
“He’s always been a Swiss army knife for us.”
“It says how valuable he is. There’s no situation (ES, PP, PK) he doesn’t touch,” Ekholm said. “He’s out there for everything and starts and ends with his smartness. His hockey IQ is through the roof. (I) Think the world of him as a player.”
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