The 2025/26 NHL season has a wide array of contenders across North America, and on Thursday, we’ll see two teams off to underwhelming starts go head-to-head with our Dallas Stars vs. Tampa Bay Lightning prediction.
The Dallas Stars (6-3-1) were off to a very slow start in 2025/26, but on the back of three straight victories, they’ve once again begun resembling the contending squad they were meant to be when the campaign began.
On Thursday, they take on the Tampa Bay Lightning (4-4-2), a team that also comes into this one on the back of three straight wins, and with so much star power on the ice, this is bound to be a thrilling contest. Read on to see our Dallas Stars vs. Tampa Bay Lightning prediction.
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Can the Stars keep the momentum going?
The Dallas Stars have been close to chasing a Stanley Cup over the past two seasons, and while their 2025/26 campaign started slow, the team is now back to 6-3-1 on the year on the back of three straight wins and a 3-1-0 record away from home. Unfortunately for the Stars, the offense is yet to pick up as they average just 2.80 goals a game this season, but with a team that allows just 3.00 goals a night, if they can strike the right balance, this is a team that has all the potential to be a true contender.
Unsurprisingly, it’s the dynamic duo of Mikko Rantanen and Wyatt Johnston leading the way with 12 and 10 points, and with solid depth around them, this is a team that’s clearly starting to pick up major momentum. Last time out for the Stars was a tight win over the Washington Capitals, with the lone goal to Tyler Seguin leading the way as Jake Oettinger dominated, stopping all 24 shots he saw on the night as they came away winners 1-0.
Expected starting goaltender: Jake Oettinger (2.61 GAA and a .909 save percentage in eight games).
Can the Lightning turn their season around?
The Tampa Bay Lightning have been overshadowed by their Florida rivals in recent years, and in 2025/26 they started off terribly slow themselves, and even with a three-game win streak, they currently sit in seventh place in the Atlantic Division. Like their opponents, the Lightning have been rock solid in net, allowing 3.00 goals per game this season, but if they are to be contenders this season, they too need to improve from their 2.90 goals per game mark.
This season, it’s been the duo of Nikita Kucherov and Jake Guentzel with 10 points each to this point, but if they are to be serious threats, they will need the rest of their big-name stars to step up around them in a hurry. Last time out for the Lightning was a dominant win over the Nashville Predators, with four players tallying two points each on the night as Andrei Vasilevsky saved 18 of the 20 shots he saw on the night as they picked up another crucial victory, 5-2.
Expected starting goaltender: Andrei Vasilevsky (2.86 GAA and an .893 save percentage in seven games).
Dallas Stars vs. Tampa Bay Lightning picksMoneyline pick for Stars vs. Lightning
As of right now, both of these teams find themselves in very similar positions this season, as they come into this one with three-game winning streaks after slow starts, and with the Lightning holding a tight 6-4 advantage in their last 10 head-to-head matchups, this one could go either way.
However, the Lightning have picked up two straight victories at home, and with an offense finally finding their groove, scoring 11 goals in their three-game winning streak, expect them to put it together and pick up a big win in this one.
Over/under pick for Stars vs. Lightning
Despite the offense picking up for both teams, it’s the Oettinger vs. Vasilevsky matchup that should define this game, with their last three head-to-head encounters resulting in a total of 15 combined goals scored.
For the Stars, the under sits at 6-4 in their last 10 overall games, with a total of seven goals allowed in their last four games, and for the Lightning, the under comes in at 5-5 in their past 10, with three or less goals allowed in their last eight games.
Keep it simple, take the under.
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