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Happy Halloween, hockey folks. Did you know the first-ever painted goalie mask was inspired by “It’s the Great Pumpkin, Charlie Brown”? Doug Favell donned an all-orange look on Oct. 31, 1970, which started a trend that continues today.
(Alex Goodlett / Getty Images)
What’s real and what’s not?
Today marks the end of October, meaning 177 NHL games have been played – or 13.5 percent of a full season — in a little less than a month. (Yes, the Olympic-year schedule crunch is real.)
It’s not a huge sample size, but it’s enough to start examining how the landscape is shifting by looking at the standings.
Including last night’s slate of 11 games, three teams in each conference that missed the playoffs last season are on pace for 100-plus points this season:
East risers: Pittsburgh, Detroit, Philadelphia
West risers: Utah, Seattle, Anaheim
And, correspondingly, three teams in each conference that made the playoffs last year are on pace for fewer than 90 points this season:
East fallers: Florida, Toronto, Ottawa
West fallers: St. Louis, Minnesota, Edmonton
Let’s use a couple of advanced stats and some intuition to sort these results into five buckets.
1️⃣ They’re Good – and it could be real: Utah, Detroit, Philadelphia
The Mammoth are impressive so far, with the NHL’s fourth-best record (8-3-0) and some strong performances against the Avs and Jets. There’s probably even some upside here because netminder Karel Vejmelka hasn’t been as airtight as he was last season.
Detroit and Philadelphia come as even bigger surprises, as the two longtime rebuilders with new-ish coaches are playing a better all-around game than a year ago.
The Flyers are clearly being lifted by getting more saves, as Dan Vladar has been dominant in the early going, with a .939 save percentage that ranks first among all netminders (minimum four starts). They don’t score a whole lot, but they are good enough defensively that it could make them competitive if their crease situation is solved.
The Red Wings, meanwhile, have won a ton (8-3-0), but sometimes it’s been in spite of their ’tenders, who have had some tough nights. If they can get closer to a .900 save percentage from John Gibson, who’s at .876, and Cam Talbot (.897), they’ll look like a playoff team.
2️⃣ They’re Bad – and it could be real: Minnesota
I really thought this was going to be a big season for the Wild – with better health than a year ago and some intriguing young players joining the big club – but it’s been a mess of a start. After getting thumped by the Penguins last night, the Wild have the fourth-worst record in the NHL (3-6-3), and their underlying numbers aren’t great.
If there’s reason for optimism, it’s that their shooting percentage is so low; goals should come easier in the weeks to come. But they need to play far better to make the playoffs – especially with Utah looking likely to take someone’s seat in the Central.
(Justin Berl / Getty Images)
3️⃣ They’re Good – and it could be unsustainable: Pittsburgh, Seattle and Anaheim
I love the Penguins’ feel-good story, as no one thought they’d be anything but cannon fodder this year. How can you not root for a rejuvenated Evgeni Malkin and Sidney Crosby having something to play for?
Pittsburgh’s 8-2-2 start gives the Penguins the second-best record in the league (?!), but they’ve done it with the second-highest shooting percentage, highest save percentage and a 106 all-situations PDO that’s just not going to stay that high.
Still, new coach Dan Muse has them playing some inspired hockey, and that counts for something.
The Kraken and Ducks, meanwhile, have been beaten up pretty good territorially and on scoring chance counts; we expect they’ll have a hard time hanging onto a .600 points percentage past midseason.
4️⃣ They’re Bad – and it should get better: St. Louis, Ottawa and Florida
The Panthers (5-5-1) are no surprise here. Yes, they miss Aleksander Barkov and Matthew Tkachuk, but they’re controlling play and have just been snakebitten. Florida should, over the long run, be fine – and the two-time defending champs get the benefit of the doubt, anyway.
The Senators and Blues, however, have mostly been undone by their goalies, who have combined to give them the two worst team save percentages in the league. It feels unlikely that Linus Ullmark and Jordan Binnington are going to be .860 ’tenders all year, so we’ll chalk that up to it being early.
5️⃣ Too tough to call: Toronto
Things are not pretty for the Maple Leafs right now. They’re not getting enough saves. Auston Matthews is on a 60-point pace. And they have six injuries, including missing key cogs in William Nylander and Chris Tanev.
Clearly, they’re not the 108-point, division-winning team of last season. But they also should be better than their current non-playoff pace, and they’ve overcome slow Octobers repeatedly in the past.
But the headwinds are stronger than ever, and it’s at least possible Toronto is in tough in what looks like a much more competitive Atlantic Division.
💡 MirTrivia question
I’m thinking of a mystery player who meets this description …
Has more than 1,000 games played
Five teams: Boston, Chicago, Columbus, Ottawa and Toronto
Was once traded straight up for Marc Methot
And is the only player in the NHL born on Halloween
This grizzled vet also remains active in the league. Who is it? The answer is below.
Hint: Here’s a recent photo of his face 👇
(Steph Chambers / Getty Images)
Coast to coast
🏒 Incredibly, 91 rookies have played at least one game already this season. Harman Dayal has a look at seven under-the-radar rooks off to a strong start in his latest piece.
❤️🔥 Speaking of freshmen, Max Bultman has the inspiring story of Red Wings rookie Emmitt Finnie, who has been putting up big numbers despite being drafted 201st — in the draft’s final round — only two years ago.
💸 On the heels of the big contracts signed this week (more on that below), Pierre LeBrun digs in with his latest rumblings from around the league on what all that money flying around means.
🎃 Just in time for Halloween: It’s one scary stat for all 32 teams. Just like with “Freddy vs. Jason,” you might want to bring a friend along for this one.
👻 Not to be outdone, the Power Rankings Boys rounded up their favorite Halloween “costumes” from around the league for The Athletic’s first-ever power rankings costume contest. Oh, and there’s a new No. 1 team on the ice.
✈️ Mark Lazerus was in Winnipeg as new Jets vet Jonathan Toews faced his former team, the Chicago Blackhawks, for the first time. The Jets won 6-3, and Toews chipped in with an assist and six shots on goal in a whopping 20:21 of ice time.
(Matthew Stockman / Getty Images)
💰 Ca$hing in
There was a run on big contracts at the start of the month, and there’s been another mini-burst to end October with three huge eight-year contracts to young players this week.
Here’s the latest cap carnage from three teams atop the Western Conference standings:
Tuesday: Thomas Harley, Dallas, $10.6M AAV
Wednesday: Logan Cooley, Utah, $10M AAV
Thursday: Martin Nečas, Colorado, $11.5M AAV
Those deals all kick in next season. Nečas is currently tied for the 11th-biggest cap hit in 2026-27, while Harley is alone in 17th and Cooley sits tied for 20th.
The company they’re joining wallet-wise is pretty eye-opening: Nečas will earn as much as William Nylander and more than David Pastrňák next year. Cooley – who has scored all of 53 career goals – will make as much as Aleksander Barkov and more than Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point and Matthew Tkachuk.
Harley, meanwhile, is set to become the fourth-highest-paid defenseman in the NHL, trailing only Erik Karlsson, Drew Doughty and Rasmus Dahlin. He played in his 208th game last night, the equivalent of only two and a half seasons in the league.
We know why it’s happening: The salary cap is set to skyrocket to at least $113.5 million by 2027, a rise of 30 percent in three seasons. But it’s still going to take some time to wrap our heads around such inexperienced players getting the bag without proving that much in the league. That could result in some misfire contracts.
NHL teams are so reluctant to walk from their stars – with a thin free agency looming and blockbuster trades difficult to make – that they’re ponying up with major term and dollars early in their careers. It’ll be fascinating to see who the winners and losers end up being four or five years from now, as a changing of the guard is starting to take place in the standings and on cap sheets.
For now, the big winner might be someone like Utah’s Nick Schmaltz. The 29-year-old is set to become one of the top unrestricted free agents in 2026 and has already piled up seven goals and 17 points in 11 games as one of the league’s leaders one month in.
Other stars set to go UFA? Adrian Kempe in Los Angeles, Alex Tuch in Buffalo and Artemi Panarin with the Rangers, all three of whom could re-sign where they are.
Beyond that, there’s not much, so feel free to enjoy your Canada Day next July 1. (No, not you, James Duthie.)
🎃 Your MirTrivia answer
(Steph Chambers / Getty Images)
It’s Blackhawks captain Nick Foligno.
The now 38-year-old is ninth among all active players with 1,240 games played and just 18 away from joining the NHL’s top 100 all-time.
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