Of the individuals off to a great start to the season, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is among the brighter spots of the Oilers’ lineup. It has been a bit of a roller coaster for Nugent-Hopkins the past few seasons. After setting a career high with 104 points in 2022–23, smashing his previous best of 68, Nugent-Hopkins’ production has declined since, with a much quieter 49 points last season.

Some are more fickle than others, but corners of the fan base even pondered what a trade might look like, calling him an overpriced third line centre. The summer prior, others might have considered him among the better value contracts in the league. Now, in his 32-year-old season, recency bias has had a huge impact on the perception of Nugent-Hopkins as a player. Where does the truth lie? Let’s take a deeper look at how Nugent Hopkins fits into the Oilers’ lineup.

Nugent-Hopkins’ production

To some extent, Nugent-Hopkins’ status as a former first overall pick colours the conversation around him. The expectations of long ago might seem a bit too distant to be relevant, but from a historical context, more can be understood. Each year, one player must earn the distinction, and the results of their careers are often compared to each other or against their fellow draft class.

Keeping in mind that Nugent-Hopkins is a slight and skilled playmaking centre, from afar, some might be critical of his career as a whole. Averaging roughly 68 points per 82 games across his career, Nugent-Hopkins is in tough against the high performers of his draft position.

His 100-point season is something of an anomaly throughout his career. At the same time, production does not encapsulate the impact that Nugent-Hopkins has had on the Oilers. In some ways, a depressed point total earlier in his career might be giving way to an elevated point total in the back half of his career.

Legacy

Nugent-Hopkins might reach 1000 games played this season, an often-overlooked metric. Though a bit further away, 1000 points is well within reach for him as well, considering a much more prestigious achievement. Herein might be a lesson for fan bases around the league, simply because a once-top prospect does not achieve a point per game average, or define the top line of a franchise, does not mean failure or inadequacy on their part. It is never on a single player to save a franchise, or rather, it should not be.

There were a lot of good players in the 2011 NHL Draft, including late-round steals like Nikita Kucherov and Johnny Gaudreau, who might be considered the two best players from that draft. Amongst the first-round picks, Nugent-Hopkins’ production is strong compared to standouts like Jonathan Huberdeau, J.T. Miller, and Mark Scheifele. This is an impressive group that many would consider to be better than Nugent-Hopkins.

Needless to say, it is not a fair assessment to be disappointed in Nugent-Hopkins’ career so far. The biggest question remaining might be whether Nugent-Hopkins can become a Hall of Fame player, already being worthy of recognition from the Oilers. With a lot of terms left on his current deal, not to mention a rising salary cap, Nugent-Hopkins will continue to be a great value against the cap as well as on the ice. This should help the Oilers as a team, not to mention his reputation across Oil Country.

Nugent-Hopkins’ role on the team

Although he is often thought of as a centre, a combination of factors mitigates this perception. Nugent-Hopkins’ face-off percentage has improved over the seasons, but his effectiveness in the playoffs in this regard underscores his limitations here. While Nugent-Hopkins does offer some defensive utility, his struggles here limit some usage.

Especially given the fact that the Oilers employ both Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, Nugent-Hopkins is in an interesting position as a centre. Ideally, the Oilers would have a third centre who can handle a lot of defensive assignments, allowing McDavid and Draisaitl to be given offensive opportunities with abandon. It is entirely unrealistic for Nugent-Hopkins to occupy this role. The Oilers might elect to use all three as centres temporarily, but unless either McDavid or Draisaitl are used in defensive roles, this will not last long.

Instead, thanks in large part to his hockey sense, Nugent-Hopkins can shift to the wing. This might be the best-case scenario for the Oilers, though Nugent-Hopkins’ versatility is still an asset for juggling the lineup through injuries or otherwise.

Nugent-Hopkins this season

At roughly a point per game pace to start the season, Nugent-Hopkins’ pace is impressive versus his career norm. Naturally, Nugent-Hopkins benefits from the Oilers’ power play, yet he has been a vital part of the unit’s success as well. His elevated shooting percentage does not seem sustainable, though his career season in 2022–23 was within this range. Nugent-Hopkins scored 37 that season, and at this rate, he might have a shot at his second 30-goal season.

With this optimistic projection, this season Nugent-Hopkins might have the chance to hit 300 goals, 500 assists, and 800 points for his career. This would be a huge individual accomplishment, but it would also be a great thing for the Oilers as a whole. Nugent-Hopkins ends after his age 35 season, at the end of 2028–29.

This is one season after McDavid’s contract is up, and regardless of what the Oilers accomplish between now and then, it will be important for the team to remain on a positive trajectory to extend McDavid once more. Some might have feared a decline for Nugent-Hopkins since his career season, but another stellar season would go a long way to projecting his performance until 2028–29.

Perhaps young players like Matthew Savoie or Isaac Howard can overtake Nugent-Hopkins at some point. While this would hurt Nugent-Hopkins’ production, it would be a good problem for the Oilers to have. The good news, for Nugent-Hopkins, is that his chemistry with McDavid and Draisaitl is undeniable. Even if other players become more impactful overall, the strength of the Oilers’ power play should help Nugent-Hopkins stay in the mix.

What to expect from Nugent-Hopkins going forward

In all, Nugent-Hopkins has been and is still a valued contributor to the Oilers’ success. He has had a strong career, fulfilling his contributions in expected ways, like his smart offensive game, as well as some less expected ways. As a proven playoff performer, Nugent-Hopkins has shown the grit and toughness required to succeed. At one point, this might have been a concern for him, with a slighter frame, but Nugent-Hopkins has embraced the physical challenge of playing in contested ice. One highlight worth mentioning is a clean win in a fight against a bigger opponent in Justin Holl.

Though age will chip away at his effectiveness, Oilers fans should be confident that Nugent-Hopkins’ game can hold up into his mid-thirties. Perhaps his cerebral style of play will allow him to age gracefully. In all, he should be a big part of the Oilers’ successes during McDavid’s current deal, as well as a reason for McDavid to sign another extension prior.

Like this:

Like Loading…