After the second worst October in Calgary Flames franchise history, the Flames have dug themselves a gigantic hole just a few weeks into the season. Playoffs have always been the target for this team internally, but that goal already seems like an impossible feat after a terrible start to the year. Sitting at 4-10-2 and dead last in the NHL, forget the playoffs, the Calgary Flames would be lucky not to finish in the bottom 10 by years end.

The playoffs are out of reach

It seems strange to say considering we’re only in November, but the Flames playoff hopes have already completely evaporated. While they of course haven’t been mathematically eliminated, their path to the playoffs after a 4-10-2 start looks virtually impossible.

Yikes. Across all three models, the Flames are already sitting at under 10% chance to make the playoffs. That’s what being the first team in the NHL to 10 regulation losses will do. While one can argue it’s still early into the season, the Flames’ inability to string more than two wins together has left them in a massive hole. They’re fighting a gigantic uphill battle right now to get back into the playoff race, with most models giving them little to no chance of getting there.

Looking to achieve a first this century

We all know the Flames are in tough to make the playoffs, but history really puts into perspective just how much of a longshot the playoffs are right now. As of November 1st, the Flames sat last place in the entire NHL. Sitting in that position as of November 1st has historically been a death sentence for a teams playoff hopes.

You’d have to go all the way back to the 1998-99 season to find the last time a team sat in last place on November 1st but ended up making the playoffs. That season the San Jose Sharks went from last on November 1st to the playoffs, finishing seventh in the Western conference. They ended up losing in the first round of the playoffs in six games.

In other words, it’s been 27 years since a team achieved a feat the Flames will need to if they hope to make the playoffs this season. The last 25 teams in the Flames position failed to make the playoffs, can they buck the trend and become the first team this century to achieve the feat?

An all-time heater is their only hope

Coming into the season, the organization was continually touting the “1 more point” narrative. After missing the playoffs with 96 points last year, the goal was to get to the 97 point mark this year. Well if that’s still the goal, good luck. After a 4-10-2 start, the Flames are playing .313 hockey right now. Across an entire 82 game season that’s a point pace of 51 points. Let’s assume the Flames were right and 97 points is the threshold for making the playoffs this year. Here’s how they’d have to play to reach that with 66 games remaining.

With 10 points through 16 games, the Flames will need another 87 points in their final 66 games to hit the 97 point mark and presumably the second wild card spot. With a total of 132 points left up for grabs, the team would need to grab 87 of 132 points to close out the season. That equates to .660 point pace from now until the end of the season. In other words, the Flames would need a record of around 42-21-3 the rest of the way just to get into the second wildcard spot.

For context just three teams in the entire NHL played at a .660 pace last season, the Golden Knights, Jets, and Capitals.

The bottom 10 seems inevitable

Team tank fans rejoice. The Calgary Flames look earmarked for a bottom 10 finish this season given how big of a hole they’ve dug for themselves. Last season, the 10th worst team in the NHL was the N.Y. Islanders with 82 points and a point percentage of .500 on the year. Given the Flames start, they still need another 72 points to hit the 82 point mark.

With 132 points left up for grabs, they’d need to grab 72 of 132 points to finish the year. That equals a .545 point pace, or a record right around 31-25-10. I find it very hard to believe a team that has won four of it’s first 16 games can suddenly turn it around and win 31 of their final 66.

In fact, even if the Flames play exactly .500 hockey the rest of the season they’d still only gather up another 66 points. That’d leave them with a point total of 76 to end the season. Last year, 76 points would leave you tied for 29th place in the NHL.

Abandon all hope

As we enter the middle of November, it’s becoming more and more clear that the Flames start isn’t just a blip. This is not a good hockey team. Even with a solid .545 finish to the season, the Flames would still likely land in the bottom 10 at years end. Outside of an all-time heater to close out the season, the Calgary Flames are on a rocket ship straight to the bottom 10 in the NHL.

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