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There was no clear Stanley Cup favorite on Opening Night. Instead, the oddsmakers installed a cohort of teams — the Florida Panthers, Edmonton Oilers, Carolina Hurricanes, Vegas Golden Knights, Colorado Avalanche, Dallas Stars, and Tampa Bay Lightning — at the top of the board.
Seemingly every sportsbook had a different order among those teams, but it was clear that this group was projected to be the cream of the crop.
That group is still sitting at the top of the board across the betting landscape, and they’ve been joined by the Devils, but it may not be too long before we see things get shaken up. Most of those teams are off to uninspiring starts, leaving us to wonder if there is going to be a true heavyweight in the NHL this season.
The Panthers and Oilers are both sitting at .500 and dealing with some real issues.
For Florida, it’s about injuries. Aleksander Barkov is out for the regular season, while Matthew Tkachuk has yet to play a game. The mission for the two-time defending champions is to just get into the playoffs, but that doesn’t feel like a foregone conclusion after a 7-7-1 start.
Florida’s statistical profile is actually quite impressive, so perhaps it’s just a matter of time before they round into form, but the Eastern Conference won’t wait around for the Cats to figure it out.
Edmonton’s problems are not as straightforward. The Oilers are near the bottom of the league in save percentage, but they’re also just 17th in goals per game (2.94). Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins are all producing at a high level, but they are getting very little support. There should be real concern in Edmonton.
Vegas looked like it was going to establish itself as the team to beat in the Western Conference with a 5-0-2 start, but a 2-3-2 run since then has cooled that hype, leaving the Knights as part of the pack, rather than its leader.
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The Hurricanes are off to a strong start despite a host of injuries, but we’ve seen this song and dance from Carolina plenty of times in recent seasons. The goaltending is still an issue, too.
The Stars have been to the Western Conference Finals three seasons on the spin and were expected to be one of the heavy-hitters again in 2025-26, but they have the look of a paper tiger right now. Dallas’ 8-6-3 record looks OK, but it has just six regulation wins and owns a minus-3 goal differential. Don’t be surprised to see the Stars struggle to hang in the race in the Central Division.
New Jersey’s strong start also seems dubious. The Devils are rolling at 11-4-0, but their goal difference is just plus-8, and they’ve got some work to do at 5-on-5. New Jersey ranks 24th in high-danger scoring chance rate and 28th in expected goals percentage through the first month of the season. Regression should come.
Jack Hughes and the Devils are off to a terrific start this season. NHLI via Getty Images
That leaves two teams: the Avalanche and Lightning, who are +650 and +1200, respectively, to win the Stanley Cup at BetMGM.
The Lightning were one of the trendiest picks to win the East in the offseason, but a 1-4-2 start raised some eyebrows. The Bolts have won seven of eight since, and it looks like only a matter of time before they take over the Atlantic Division. Tampa’s statistical profile is among the best in the league, too.
Tampa should be considered the class of the East, but the Bolts are still lagging behind the only true heavyweight in the NHL.
The Avalanche’s 9-1-5 record looks weird, but what matters most is that this team has just one regulation loss, and is absolutely dominating teams at 5-on-5. Colorado’s offensive punch is prolific, and Nathan Mackinnon and Cale Makar are playing at an MVP-level, but the most impressive part of Colorado’s start is their stingy defense, which is allowing just 2.24 expected goals per 60 minutes. An elite defense behind the league’s most potent offense is a scary proposition.
There are plenty of good teams in the NHL this season, but the Avs are in a class of their own right now. They should be the clear favorite as we head towards the first-quarter pole.
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.