This week, I wanted to look into four notable breakout performances we are witnessing early this NHL season. Each player’s situation is unique, but there is a unifying theme with all four players: the environment around them has improved, and they are making the most of their newfound opportunity.
I’ve selected one player from each division, focusing heavily on the guys surprisingly stealing headlines early this regular season. We’ll start in the Atlantic Division:
Jakub Dobes, Montreal Canadiens (G)
Last week, we analyzed the utter dominance of Montreal’s top line, featuring Cole Caufield, Nick Suzuki, and Juraj Slafkovsky. They are crushing the opposition at 5-on-5, and a key reason why Montreal is sitting near the top of the league standings.
There is a second reason Montreal looks so fierce early on, and that’s goaltender Jakub Dobes. Montreal is still a top-heavy team and one that’s outscored when the top line is off the ice, so the Canadiens need to lean into a strength elsewhere.
Considering his play last season, it would have been reasonable to bank on Sam Montembeault’s goaltending outperformance, but the 29-year-old netminder has been a shell of himself to start the year, stopping just 86 per cent of shots faced. That’s a difficult scenario for any team – doubly so for a Canadiens franchise that’s still trying to prove itself as a serious playoff contender.
But Dobes has offset Montembeault’s struggles and then some. In fact, he’s grading out as one of the league’s best goaltenders when adjusting for the difficulty of shots faced. Dobes is stopping 92 per cent of shots on the year, but look at where he grades in goals saved versus expected – near the top of the NHL, and among a class of otherwise elite goaltenders:
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Alexander Nikishin, Carolina Hurricanes (D)
After several years playing with SKA St. Petersburg in the KHL, the Carolina Hurricanes brought former third-round pick Nikishin to Raleigh, and he’s brought nothing but on-ice dominance since slotting into the lineup.
Carolina routinely ices one of the deepest rosters in the league and it’s typically a boon for the defensive corps who benefit from a sea of capable two-way forwards in front of them.
What’s interesting is the big-bodied Nikishin isn’t being insulated by playing with an elite defenceman on his hip a la Jaccob Slavin; he’s played with a rotation of Sean Walker, Shayne Gostisbehere, and Jalen Chatfield. And in all scenarios he’s thriving.
Some of that surely ties to the fact that the Hurricanes remain one of the league’s preeminent forces at even strength, but the fact Carolina’s producing big goal differentials with Nikishin deployed in a mix of units is extremely encouraging.
Season to date, Carolina’s outscoring the opposition 21-8 (+13) with him deployed. On a per-60 basis, that’s the best number you will find in the NHL:
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Connor Bedard, Chicago Blackhawks (F)
Bedard is one of those generational prospects, so gifted and so skilled that it almost feels like a backhanded compliment to say he’s having a breakout season.
We expected greatness from Bedard from the moment he entered the league, and already in his third year, he looks like one of the most electric forwards in hockey.
But amidst an incredibly deep rebuild in Chicago, it was reasonable to assume it might take time for Bedard’s individual greatness to translate into something more meaningful at the team level.
Well, perhaps one of this season’s curveballs will be the return of competitiveness from the Blackhawks, a suddenly feisty team once more in the Central Division (8-5-3 record; 97-point pace).
While a key reason for their surge is the goaltending performance from Spencer Knight, Chicago also has a dangerous top line anchored by Bedard – the same Bedard who currently sits second in scoring (nine goals and 16 assists for 25 points), trailing only the legendary Nathan MacKinnon in Colorado.
The Blackhawks may be some time away from icing a real contender in May, but a super-charged first line and elite goaltending combination has carried a great number of teams into the playoffs. We’ll see if Bedard and company can keep this early season surprise on track into the winter months.
Cutter Gauthier, Anaheim Ducks (F)
It’s been a long time since the Anaheim Ducks were a factor of any kind in the Western Conference, but an offensive explosion of the highest order has the Ducks brain trust thinking postseason as soon as this season.
A key reason for their offensive outburst is former fifth-overall pick Cutter Gauthier, acquired from the Philadelphia Flyers a season ago for the cost of defenceman Jamie Drysdale and a second-round pick.
It’s a trade that will be evaluated for years forward, but Anaheim must be over the moon with how Gauthier has slotted into their lineup. Playing primarily with Mason McTavish and Beckett Sennecke, Gauthier’s scoring touch has been on full display, tallying 11 goals and nine assists (20 points) in 15 games.
Scoring is inherently volatile; setting aside players like Connor McDavid and MacKinnon, just about every forward goes through surges and slumps.
What makes Gauthier’s scoring frenzy so notable isn’t solely because he’s got some puck luck on his side. He’s also part of one of the most dangerous lines in the league, a trio capable of producing high volumes of scoring chances from the deadliest areas of the offensive zone, usually indicative of a player who can sustain high levels of production (shot profile via HockeyViz):
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The only negative you can put on the table for Gauthier’s start to the season is that he’s a restricted free agent at the end of this season. So, if he puts together this sort of a “contract year,” Anaheim is going to be making a sizable and long-term investment against their salary cap in short order.
Data via Natural Stat Trick, NHL.com, Evolving Hockey