Welcome back to another edition of NHL Predictions. Each day, our writers here at Last Word on Hockey look at the games and give in-depth analysis. Our team breaks down the key matchups, storylines, and stats, then makes predictions based on how they might play out. This edition features the Anaheim Ducks taking on the Colorado Avalanche. Don’t forget to check out more NHL Predictions, as our writers continue this series throughout the 2025–26 season.
2025–26 Season Series: First meeting this season (2024–25: Ducks 0-3 Avalanche)
Time: 9:30 PM Eastern Standard Time (EST); 6:30 PM Pacific Standard Time (PST)
US TV: TNT, truTV, HBO Max
Canada TV: Sportsnet, SN360
Setting the Stage
The Anaheim Ducks (11–3–1) and Colorado Avalanche (10–1–5) meet in a matchup between two of the NHL’s top-ranked teams, both featured at the top of The Athletic’s latest power rankings. Anaheim arrives riding a seven-game winning streak, their longest since 2021, powered by Leo Carlsson’s 10-game point streak and a resurgent power play that has struck in five straight games. Joel Quenneville’s group has turned early-season optimism into structure, confidence, and results.
Meanwhile, the Avalanche continue to look like a team playing a different sport. Nathan MacKinnon is the league’s leading scorer with 29 points in 16 games, and Cale Makar’s 22 points from the back end keep Colorado’s transition game operating at warp speed. They have earned points in seven straight and lead the NHL in five-on-five shot share and expected goals. It’s a classic heavyweight-versus-upstart meeting: a polished champion against a contender learning to act like one.
Anaheim Ducks Storyline
The Ducks’ surge has defied the odds and been defined by growth and cohesion. Carlsson has evolved into the team’s offensive centrepiece, with 25 points in 15 games, while Cutter Gauthier and Troy Terry continue to complement his blend of poise and playmaking. Anaheim’s five-on-five numbers show maturity (52 percent Corsi For and a 56.5 percent goals-for rate), but their 48.5 expected goals percentage reveals they’re finishing above expectation.
Lukas Dostal has stabilised the crease with a .908 save percentage and remains one of the league’s busiest goaltenders. The power play, ranked tenth at 23.7 percent, has become a difference-maker. Quenneville’s lineup has found balance, and his young core is thriving under pressure, turning high-skill sequences into sustained scoring. However, their next game will be their biggest test yet.
Power play goal for Anaheim!Scored by Leo Carlsson with 17:13 remaining in the 3rd period.Assisted by Chris Kreider and Jackson LaCombe.Anaheim: 4Winnipeg: 1#WPGvsANA #FlyTogether #GoJetsGo
— NHL Goals (@nhlgoals.bsky.social) 2025-11-10T05:13:00.620995Z
Colorado Avalanche Storyline
Colorado is once again the NHL’s measuring stick. The Avalanche’s five-on-five dominance is staggering: 61.9 percent goals-for, 58.5 percent Corsi, and 60.5 expected goals share. They’re scoring 3.78 goals per 60 while allowing just 2.32, both top-three marks leaguewide. MacKinnon’s nine-game point streak has coincided with Makar’s road point streak reaching ten, the longest season-opening run in franchise history. Supporting depth has quietly been excellent too, with Artturi Lehkonen, Valeri Nichushkin, and Martin Necas all driving secondary production. Goaltender Scott Wedgewood (.906 save percentage) has given Colorado enough steadiness behind a defensive unit that limits chances through pure territorial control. In short, they’re deep, fast, and frighteningly consistent.
Colorado goal!Scored by Gavin Brindley with 03:52 remaining in the OT period.Assisted by Cale Makar and Nathan MacKinnon.Vancouver: 4Colorado: 5#COLvsVAN #Canucks #GoAvsGo
— NHL Goals (@nhlgoals.bsky.social) 2025-11-10T05:51:53.768496Z
The Model
Our blended model simulates this matchup 10,000 times using four independent inputs: the in-house projection, MoneyPuck, the betting market (vig removed), and Advanced Hockey Stats. Each source is equally weighted to provide a balanced probability view. Results are recalculated nightly to reflect updated team strengths and recent form.
Across the simulations, Colorado wins 66 percent of outcomes (fair odds ~–194), while Anaheim claims 34 percent (+194). The Avalanche’s superior expected-goal metrics and possession dominance provide the edge, but Anaheim’s special teams efficiency narrows the gap slightly. Time will tell if the Ducks’ current shooting surge will be stable long-term, yet their momentum and confidence make them a legitimate test for any team right now.
NHL Prediction
Expect fireworks. Colorado’s offence will dictate tempo early, but Anaheim’s power play should keep them within striking distance. If Dostal holds firm through the first twenty, the Ducks can make it interesting late. However, the Avalanche’s depth and home-ice advantage usually tilt these contests back their way. MacKinnon’s current form borders on inevitable, and Anaheim’s penalty kill will have its hands full against a resurgent Colorado power play that just snapped an eight-game drought.
Prediction: Avalanche win 4–2 (66% win probability)
2025–26 Season Prediction Record: 3–3
Prop Bets of the Night
We close this NHL Prediction by following a theme of sustained offence. The Avalanche team total over 3.5 goals (−155) stands out, given Colorado’s 4.13 goals per game and Anaheim’s tendency to trade chances in transition. The second play focuses on Leo Carlsson to record over 0.5 points (−180). The Ducks’ top centre has been on a tear to start the season, registering at least a point in ten straight. The third angle is a fun momentum lean: over 1.5 goals in the first period (+300). Anaheim tends to start aggressively even on the road, while Colorado’s first-period xGF sits top three leaguewide. If either goaltender blinks early, this one could open up fast.
2025–26 Season Betting Record: 5–9 (−4.03 units)
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Main Photo: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images