There are very few Calgary Flames who have looked good this season, but there are a few who have been called out publicly for their play. Rightly or wrongly, Matt Coronato has been one of those guys. His struggles have been clearly called out, and he has seen the press box disproportionately for a player who netted a massive extension this summer.

But is he struggling? Through 16 games this season, he sits seventh on the team with six points. His plus minus, however, is a brutal -13, second worst on the team right now. Let’s look under the hood to see what’s going on in his analytics.

Individual metrics

Taking a look at his numbers at 5v5, using data from Natural Stat Trick, his numbers are remarkably similar to last season. His shot attempts (Corsi), scoring chances for, and high danger chances for are all similar to last year. Take a look at his relative numbers from last year to this year, using relative (per 60 minutes of icetime) numbers to account for the difference in games played:

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His production this season has actually been better so far this season. He’s shooting the puck more this season than he did last year at 5v5, and actually sits fourth on the team, despite playing 50 fewer minutes than Nazem Kadri this season. Relative to icetime, Coronato sits third on the team in scoring chances for at 5v5. He’s definitely getting looks.

The problem honestly, is his shooting percentage has been horrendous, sitting at 3.23%. Among players who have scored, only Rasmus Andersson has a worse 5v5 shooting percentage. This is really, really bad for a guy who is known for his scoring prowess. Watching the games, he just can’t get the puck to the parts of the net that he can score from.

Thankfully, Coronato has redeemed himself a little bit on the power play, where he leads the team in goals with a measly two, but at 5v,5 the puck simply has not been going in.

On-ice metrics

Even on the backend, Coronato has been serviceable. The team is above 50% on all the major possession metrics when he’s on the ice, despite him playing with a mixed bag of linemates all year. It’s hard to look at Coronato as the problem here.

Looking even deeper at how he has done with certain linemates, most players have looked better with Coronato than without him. He formed a fantastic partnership with rookie Matvei Gridin early in the season, but also looked really good with Nazem Kadri. He also managed to elevate both Ryan Lomberg and Yegor Sharangovich- truly a Herculean task.

The one player who has looked much better without him is Jonathan Huberdeau, although this line with Morgan Frost did look very good against the Minnesota Wild in the team’s 2–0 loss. They led the way with the most shot attempts, scoring chances and high danger chances of any line. Coronato also led all Flames forwards with eight shot attempts and five scoring chances at 5v5.

What is going wrong with Matt Coronato

The challenge has been that when he’s on the ice, the team can’t hold it together effectively. His shooting percentage isn’t being supported by anyone else’s when he’s playing, and the on-ice save percentage is brutal as well. It’s not like he’s on the ice for a massive number of chances against either, having been on the ice for 30 high-danger chances against this season, tenth on the team.

Frankly, the team has been remarkably unlucky when he’s on the ice, and he’s incredibly snakebitten. Looking at his PDO, the luck coefficient that looks at on-ice shooting percentage and on-ice save percentage, he’s at a 0.931. Most players shoot to be at 1. This is a massive drop-off.

This has to fix itself in time, right? Coronato has to become less snakebitten in time, but it will take him working on the following things. First, he needs to refine his shot a little to hit the right areas of the net. He’s not making the most of his chances the way he did in the past.

The Flames also need to do a better job of playing him with better linemates. You cannot play your top young winger on the fourth line with Ryan Lomberg and Adam Klapka. That’s not setting him or the team up for success.

Finally, the Flames should hope to get more from him in terms of his two-way game. His metrics are fine at 5v5, but he could do a better job playing team defence. When he was at Harvard in the NCAA, Coronato played on the penalty kill and was regularly relied on to play heavy defensive minutes. The team needs to get him back to that.

If they can get him to refine just a bit, Coronato should go back to being one of their top performers, but don’t kid yourself, he hasn’t been the problem on the team this season.

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