Here we are, nearly a quarter of the way through the NHL season, fast approaching the point where you are what your record says you are, and still no signs of life from the middling Edmonton Oilers.
Right now, their record says they are a .500 team trying to chase down a wildcard spot. One that starts slowly, can’t score at five-on-five, can’t keep the puck out of its net, buckles under pressure and has zero toughness.
That’s not ideal for a team with designs on winning a Stanley Cup this year.
Now, an 8-7-4 record and 11th in the Western Conference based on points percentage (.526) is nothing that can’t be remedied by a simple three-game win streak. That’s reason for optimism.
Unfortunately, here we are, nearly a quarter of the way through the season, and they can’t win more than two in a row, which they’ve only done three times.
No matter how you slice it, this doesn’t look at all like the Oilers team people expected to see this year.
It could be worse
They are what their record says they are?
If anything, they’re worse.
Going back 12 games to examine Edmonton’s last five wins, if it weren’t for some very fortunate breaks, they’d be drowning right now.
The referees gifted them a 6-5 comeback win over Montreal, giving Edmonton a 5-1 power play advantage and hammering the Canadiens with one of the worst late-game unsportsmanlike conduct calls you’re ever going to see.
They had Philadelphia’s winning goal in the final minute wiped out by a bone-headed offside that didn’t impact the play. They had Columbus, while on the power play, no less, score into its own net in the final minute to tie the game for Edmonton.
If those breaks don’t fall Edmonton’s way, the Oilers are fighting to stay out of last place overall.
That’s how thin their margins are.
The starts
Easing their way into games has been a recurring theme all year. Edmonton gave up the first goal 11 times in its first 19 games, which is eighth-worst in the NHL. In the 11 games where they fell behind 1-0, they went on to win just three times, a .273 percentage that ranks 23rd in the NHL in that department.
They’ve also fallen behind 2-0 seven times in 19 games. You don’t need a degree in math to realize that being down 2-0 every 2.7 games is ridiculous.
And five times in 19 games, they have given up a goal in the first minute of a period.
Being ready to go shouldn’t be a problem at this stage of the season.
Drab four
Wasn’t defence supposed to be the anchor of this team? With Mattias Ekholm, Evan Bouchard, Jake Walman and Darnell Nurse, Edmonton began the season with a top four that some people considered the best in the NHL.
Instead, they’ve been a shadow of the expectations. Bad pinches, giveaways, weak in front of their own net, puck chasing, not paying attention to opposition players left all alone in front of the crease — it’s been a disaster, with Edmonton’s slot looking like a picnic spot for opposition forwards.
“We need to make it harder for them to get inside position on us,” admitted head coach Kris Knoblauch.
Defence is the backbone of a team, and if it isn’t good, everything else comes down with it. It puts stress on a couple of average goalies who need all the help they can get, it means the Oilers are often falling behind early, it forces the coaching staff to overplay the top guys and it leaves the rest of the forwards cold and rusty and feeling like spare parts.
No scoring touch
There are some young, high-octane teams that are managing to outscore their mistakes, but the Oilers aren’t at that level.
Their 34 five-on-five goals work out to a miserable 1.79 per game, near the very bottom of the league. Even with a power play clicking at 30 per cent, Edmonton is only 19th in the league in overall goals per game (3.05)
Meanwhile, their goals against is 3.42 and their save percentage is 30th in the league, so the math simply doesn’t work out. You can’t score 3.05 and give up 3.42 and expect to be going anywhere but down.
All the wrong moves
Stan Bowman has his work cut out for him going forward, largely because the moves he just made aren’t working out. David Tomasek hasn’t been able to translate his Swedish League offence into anything even resembling production in the NHL. Andrew Mangiapane is fast becoming a disaster — two goals in his last 17 games and the second-worst plus-minus in the NHL. Curtis Lazar isn’t adding much in his limited opportunity. Trent Frederic’s deal is already wearing thin two months into an eight-year contract.
Jack Roslovic is fitting in brilliantly, but the question mark on him is three goals in 45 career playoff games.
His roster, as it stands now, looks a million miles from a championship.
E-mail: rtychkowski@postmedia.com
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