Writing this before they play the red-hot Ducks, Detroit is 9-7. A respectable record, but hardly better than that of the pre-McClellan Red Wings at this point last season. With the NHL seemingly being closer than ever, at what point should the Red Wings start to worry about their playoff chances? The coming slate of games should be telling for how Detroit stands in the playoff race. Detroit will see Anaheim before a back-to-back against the Sabres and Rangers, three teams that are all looking to get back into the playoffs. If Detroit can pose a .500 record or better, I believe Detroit can last a little longer before hitting the panic button. However, two losses could spell danger for this team, even so early on into the season.
If Detroit Wins All Three:
If Detroit takes all three games and improves to 12-7-0, I think the playoff parade is back on. Kidding obviously, but I do think bouncing back from three losses with three wins would be enough for this team to get momentum back. If Nate Danielson can join this team on a hot spell, I think his momentum will be big to help Detroit. It’s far from a sure thing, however. Detroit has struggled against Anaheim both this season and last, being 2-3-0 against the team. After that, they are also close with Buffalo being 3-2-0 in their last five before facing a Rangers team they simply can’t beat. The Red Wings have dropped the last 5 to the Rangers, all in regulation. So in the last 15 against these 3 teams, they are a combined 5-10-0. Not exactly something to hedge a bet on. The would-be .632 points percentage would be good for second in the division once again. The 12 wins would also give them the projected second-most points from wins. Seeing as Montreal, Pittsburgh, or New Jersey have all benefited from the overtime point.
Any Form of Two Wins:
If Detroit can pick up 4 or 5 points along this stretch, they’re also in a similarly good spot. Admittedly, losing in overtime is a gift Detroit has not been blessed with these past two seasons. However, Detroit winning 2 games would push them back into an early playoff spot. 5 points would be good enough for a divisional spot on points percentage, four points would put them into the first wild card again. The Maple Leafs and Panthers are in a spiral right now, so if there is ever time to gain some space, it’s now. Not to mention, losing to Buffalo or New York would give Detroit’s competition the swing. Detroit would be back to form if it could pick up any form of two wins this week. As a quick side note, Detroit has not forced overtime with the empty net over the past two seasons. So I wouldn’t bet on an overtime point unless it’s the other team mounting a comeback.
Any Form of One Win:
Here lies the problem territory. Statistically, this is the most likely option. With only one win, Detroit would at best take two (unlikely) overtime losses and be placed at a .579 points percentage, which would put them in the final wild card spot (assuming the win is against the Rangers). However, if Detroit loses two in regulation, they drop to .526, putting them on the outside looking in yet again. Why is this a problem? The main playoff teams are going to start to surge soon, if Detroit wants a chance they need to build a cushion. It would be irresponsible to bet that all of Toronto, Tampa Bay, and Florida miss the playoffs, meaning Detroit will be in a tight playoff race. Detroit has a chance this week to play three teams that missed last season. For a team this deep in the rebuild, they must avoid this scenario.
Worst Case:
If Detroit drops all three, they would also drop below a .500 points percentage, putting them only with Buffalo in the entire conference.
Detroit is 25th in MoneyPuck’s power rankings, and they have less than a 1 in 3 chance to make the playoffs. Red Wings fans have learned the lesson of too little too late, if Detroit wants to give themselves a chance, it has to start early.
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