The Winnipeg Jets’ sudden return to good health comes with major implications for their season — the chance to fix their five-on-five problems, chain some wins together, and put much-needed distance between themselves and the playoff cut line.
It also comes with enormous salary cap implications.
Everyone on Winnipeg’s injured reserve counted in the team’s cap calculations, whether they were playing or not. By assigning Brad Lambert, Parker Ford and Nikita Chibrikov to the Manitoba Moose, the Jets save $2,574,999 in cap space. These savings will accumulate throughout the year, allowing Winnipeg to add an extra $9.2 million in contracts at the trade deadline because of good health and the three AHL assignments it allowed.
That’s a huge deal. It’s also a pretense to take a look at the Jets’ roster through the lens of cap efficiency. In a league where every team gets the same amount of money to spend, winning is — theoretically — about getting more value out of the same money spent by every other team. The Jets get spectacular value out of their top players. Josh Morrissey is a star-caliber No. 1 defenceman with a $6.25 million cap, while reigning Hart Trophy winner Connor Hellebuyck’s $8.5 million average annual value gives him the NHL’s fifth-highest cap hit. Hellebuyck could win his third Vezina Trophy in a row based on his performance so far this season.
But how does the rest of Winnipeg’s roster stack up? Where do the Jets get the most — and the least — value?
And where might Winnipeg make the best use of its extra cap space at the trade deadline?
The method
We’re combining players’ real, tangible goals and assists and adding underlying numbers to them. Then we’re converting a player’s “Net Rating” to a percentage of the salary cap, so as to turn each player’s performance — goals, assists, impact on expected goals and more — into a dollar value. From there, we can compare each Jets player’s performance to their cap hit, determining a cap efficiency rating for each player.
Here’s what goes into Net Rating:
Offensive Rating: A weighted combination of goals, primary assists, secondary assists, individual expected goals, faceoffs, penalties drawn, expected goals for impact at five-on-five, goals for impact at five-on-five, power-play goal impact and usage.
Defensive Rating: A weighted combination of blocked shots, faceoffs, penalties taken, expected goals against impact at five-on-five, goals against impact at five-on-five, penalty kill impact and usage.
These two ratings combine into a player’s “Net Rating,” which is what Dom Luszczyszyn uses to calculate player values for The Athletic’s player card series. (A full writeup is here.) The most important thing to understand is that we’re going beyond measuring players strictly by goals and assists. Defensive stalwarts deserve their cookies, too.
So who grades out the best? Let’s go position by position, starting with Winnipeg’s forwards.
Forwards
Player
Market Value
Cap Hit
Surplus Value
$12,281,389
$8,500,000
$3,781,389
$10,550,278
$7,142,857
$3,407,421
$6,871,667
$3,250,000
$3,621,667
$6,655,278
$4,000,000
$2,655,278
$6,222,500
$1,850,000
$4,372,500
$6,222,500
$3,250,000
$2,972,500
$4,874,231
$3,250,000
$1,624,231
$4,707,778
$7,500,000
-$2,792,222
$4,275,000
$3,000,000
$1,275,000
$2,760,278
$3,666,666
-$906,388
$1,245,556
$2,000,000*
-$754,444*
-$106,875
$875,333
-$982,208
-$701,944
$1,000,000
-$1,701,944
-$732,857
$1,000,000
-$1,732,857
-$2,452,727
$812,500
-$3,265,227
-$2,541,250
$886,666
-$3,427,916
Winnipeg is led by its twin offensive geniuses in Mark Scheifele and Kyle Connor. They outscore their defensive problems to a certain extent — there are times when Winnipeg’s top line struggles to break cleanly out of its own zone — but they’ve created and buried enough scoring chances to grade out as the team’s most valuable forwards. There’s a reason we ranked Scheifele and Connor among the NHL’s deadliest duos so far this season.
The video below was a penalty shot, which adds to Connor’s offensive contribution without helping his underlying numbers. It was also a thing of beauty, so it’s worth rewatching here:
Kyle Connor, that was disgusting 🤢 pic.twitter.com/acNe6fAYFl
— NHL (@NHL) November 1, 2025
(If you’re worried about Connor’s $12 million contract extension, consider that his current level of performance prorates to $11.5 million in “value” based on next season’s projected $104 million cap.)
Brightest lights
There’s no brighter spot than Morgan Barron, whose speed and strength make him unique on the Jets’ roster. Barron’s six points in 12 games before his injury put him on track to obliterate his previous career high of 21 points in a single season. He’s helped Winnipeg win his minutes at five-on-five — albeit against the flow of play — while contributing to the penalty kill and scoring a shorthanded goal against Dallas. There are small samples galore this early in the season, but Barron is giving the Jets over $4 million in surplus value on his $1.85 million cap hit this season.
Adam Lowry’s season has just begun, but he’s stepped back into his shutdown role with Alex Iafallo and Nino Niederreiter on his wings. Lowry’s small sample value is inflated by the fact that he’s yet to be part of a goal against at five-on-five. You’ll see Lowry’s market value drop if the goals against catch up to his underwhelming shot metrics. (The counterpoint is that a healthy Lowry should be able to improve upon his first seven games’ worth of underlying numbers.)
Niederreiter is higher than you might expect him to be. If you haven’t checked in a while — or missed Lowry’s goal against Columbus — you might not have noticed that Niederreiter is fifth in team scoring with four goals and nine assists for 13 points in 19 games.
THAT’S MY CAPTAIN 😍 pic.twitter.com/rqJhJeG7oA
— Winnipeg Jets (@NHLJets) November 19, 2025
Early season alarm bells
Gabriel Vilardi’s 14 points in 19 games don’t quite make up for the first line’s defensive struggles. Vilardi has also managed to be on the ice for fewer Jets goals and more goals against than Connor and Scheifele have so far, so he grades out as less impressive than either player at both ends of the rink.
The biggest concern is Jonathan Toews. Winnipeg has been outscored 13-6 with him on the ice at five-on-five this season, draining his value even as a $2 million player. He’s on track to hit his first $550,000 games-played bonus by appearing in his 20th game against Carolina on Friday, and he could become a $5.25 million player by playing at least 60 games as the Jets make the playoffs.
Toews’ performance is expected to improve. An NHL executive told us not to bet against “smart” for this piece, adding that Toews’ recent body of work is already better than his start to the season. If this is all there is, though, Toews’ contract will be more about a homecoming and intangible contributions than an efficient use of Jets cap space.
Finally, the Jets look validated in assigning Lambert, Ford and Chibrikov to the AHL.
Defencemen
Player
Market Value
Cap Hit
Surplus Value
$17,518,000
$6,250,000
$11,268,000
$8,689,333
$4,900,000
$3,789,333
$4,015,333
$7,000,000
-$2,984,667
$2,717,000
$1,250,000
$1,467,000
$1,938,000
$5,750,000
-$3,812,000
-$7,565,800
$950,000
-$8,515,800
-$8,077,714
$2,750,000
-$10,827,714
-$10,681,800
$1,500,000
-$12,181,800
Brightest lights
Josh Morrissey has been one of the best defencemen in the world this season. Winnipeg’s No. 1 defenceman looks like a lock to make Team Canada, grading out as a superstar because of his point per game performance and strong underlying numbers. He’s been the Jets’ best skater in all three zones so far this season, combining elite offence and defence like no other player. Dylan DeMelo may be caught in Morrissey’s wake, enjoying the rising tide that a Norris Trophy candidate creates, but his impact on expected goals numbers has been strong.
Winnipeg might still benefit from an upgrade at that position. DeMelo gave up footspeed and couldn’t win body position against Miles Wood for his breakaway goal Tuesday night. DeMelo’s still delivering surplus value on his $4.9 million contract.
Logan Stanley’s underlying numbers are below average, but he’s contributed nine points in 19 games, and Winnipeg has won his minutes 14-9. His shot metrics should improve on the third pair, perhaps helping him continue to deliver surplus value on his $1.25 million contract.
STANZILLA UNLEASHED 🧨 pic.twitter.com/56kjxY34xD
— Winnipeg Jets (@NHLJets) November 19, 2025
Early season alarm bells
Neal Pionk didn’t look like a $7 million defenceman while playing against top competition with Stanley. Dylan Samberg is back, so Pionk’s numbers should improve in the aggregate, and he’s already making a bigger impact as of late.
In the meantime, don’t read too much into Samberg’s underwhelming numbers in three games played. His value is obvious, despite the small sample, and Winnipeg will likely get surplus value from the Samberg-Pionk pairing all over again this season.
The biggest trouble spot is on the third pair, where Luke Schenn has been outscored 7-1 while earning 34 percent of expected goals. Those numbers may yet improve as a healthy Jets roster puts the team in its own zone less often, but Schenn is a $2.75 million veteran who isn’t living up to his cap hit this season. Colin Miller has delivered better results (on better Jets teams) in a similar role, despite looking just as underwhelming so far this season.
Realistically, the Jets need one more defenceman they can trust to play top competition without getting beaten by it.
TEE IT 🆙💥 pic.twitter.com/cP0rgbg6eb
— Winnipeg Jets (@NHLJets) November 19, 2025
Goaltenders
PlayerCap hitCap hit (Rank)GSAx (Rank)
$8,500,000
5
3
$825,000
70
30
I think it’s safe to say the Jets are getting great value from their goaltending contracts, although our method here is crude.
Hellebuyck is a threat to win his third straight Vezina Trophy and has saved the third most goals above expected, despite earning the NHL’s fifth-highest goaltending salary. He was the highest-ranked goaltender in our NHL Player Tiers, which was built by a combination of analytics, general managers, executives, coaches, scouts and data analysts.
Meanwhile, Comrie ranks 30th, despite the 70th-highest cap hit among goaltenders.
What it all means
Analytics are only one lens with which to evaluate how much bang the Jets are getting for their buck. It’s also important to acknowledge that we’re roughly one quarter into the season, and Winnipeg is finally at full power.
The value here is that we’ve gone beyond goals and assists to include underlying numbers, estimating defensive impact and comparing players’ performance to the salary cap based on a model that is standardized to league-wide numbers. The Jets are crushing it with Hellebuyck, Morrissey, Scheifele, Connor, Lowry and Barron, but alarms are going off with respect to Schenn, Pionk and Toews.
A rising tide can float all boats in hockey. It’s a sport where one more clean breakout per period can make the difference between below average and above it. The Athletic’s Net Rating model is only one lens, among many analytical lenses.
Jets coach Scott Arniel told The Athletic earlier this week that the Jets are getting closer, with lots of work to be done.
“It’s one or two passes or one or two plays that changes the amount of zone time that you have in your end of the rink (and) the amount of chances that you give up,” Arniel said. “That’s an area for us, as we start to get healthy here … If we’re cleaner on our outs, we’re faster on our defending, you’re not doing the (defensive) zone-time thing, where you’re in your end a lot more. You’re getting out cleaner and faster. To me, that’s what has been missing.”
If the Jets can’t fix things from within, they’re built well enough — and will be building enough cap space — to go shopping for the pieces they’re missing. For now, it seems as though the defence needs it most.
All salary cap data from PuckPedia. Underlying numbers from Evolving Hockey. Expected goals data is from before Tuesday night’s games.