Game 20: Montreal Canadiens vs. Washington Capitals

Start time: 7:00 PM EST / 4:00 PM PST
In the Canadiens region: TSN2 (English), RDS (French)
In the Capitals regions: MNMT
Streaming: ESPN+, RDS, TSN+

Montreal’s reward last season for being the team to claim the final wild-card spot in the Eastern Conference was a first-round series with the Washington Capitals. The Canadiens had poured everything they had into the final third of the season to achieve that goal, while the Capitals had spent that time in a comfortable playoff position and focused solely on setting up Alexander Ovechkin to set the NHL’s new goal-scoring benchmark. The series went about how you would expect with two teams at different fitness levels, a quick five-game series that saw Montreal claim only one win, even if the youngest team to ever make the playoffs battled to the end of its season.

The 20-point gap between Montreal and Washington was the largest of any playoff series in 2025. As they meet up for the first time a quarter of the way through the season, the gap is a single point. It’s looking like that might be more of an issue for the Metropolitan Division-dwelling Capitals as that has been a much stronger section this year. All three of the current seeds in the Metro would pace the Atlantic in points percentage, and it will be tough for Washington to re-establish a place at the top.

That situation is also why there should be no reason to panic about Montreal’s current form of going 1-3-3 in its last seven games; that rough stretch hasn’t taken them very far out of the position they held before injuries hit and the slump began. There’s still a possibility with a win tonight to tie with the Detroit Red Wings atop the division and improve to a 102-point pace.

Tale of the Tape

Canadiens
Statistics
Capitals

10-6-3
Record
10-8-2

51.0% (12th)
Expected-goal share
57.2% (3rd)

3.32 (6th)
Goals per game
3.00 (21st)

3.37 (25th)
Goals against per game
2.55 (5th)

21.4% (14th)
PP%
13.8% (30th)

78.5% (19th)
PK%
72.3% (28th)

1-2-0
Head-to-Head Record (24-25)
2-0-1

Cole Caufield (13)
Most goals
Tom Wilson (11)

Nick Suzuki (17)
Most assists
John Carlson (13)

Nick Suzuki (21)
Most points
Tom Wilson (20)

A shootout loss in Columbus was the closest Montreal has come to a win since November 8. It was the Canadiens’ best performance of the season in terms of expected-goal share at over 70%, and they got back to generating high-danger chances as well, with 11 at five-on-five. We didn’t get a single chance to see the new power-play formations as the Blue Jackets never saw the box, so it will (surely) be versus the Capitals’ 28th-ranked penalty kill, at 72.3%, that those new units make their debut.

Outside of their PK, the Capitals are a strong defensive team, and that much has carried over from last season. It’s their offence preventing them from getting more wins, netting just 60 goals through 20 games. Only the New York Rangers and Philadelphia Flyers have scored fewer among Metro clubs, and only the Flyers average fewer on the road.

The offence has largely been left up to Tom Wilson, the team’s most-used forward despite him being dinged for 27 penalty minutes and two additional 10-minute misconducts. At least the Capitals’ poor penalty kill gets him released early and back in the fray. Thanks to two empty-net goals in a 7-4 win over the Edmonton Oilers last night, he is up to 11 on the season and leads the team with 20 points. He set new career highs of 33 goals and 65 points last year, and might eclipse those in the season he will turn 32.

It could be a battle of big men in Montreal’s return home. Not the Wilson versus Josh Anderson battle that highlighted last year’s playoff series, but Juraj Slafkovský and Wilson going blow for blow in creating the offence. Montreal’s winger isn’t racking up points on the scoresheet the way his counterpart has (I still think he tipped in the game-tying goal on Monday), but after being a critical component of the Canadiens’ top line, he’s now found on a line with Ivan Demidov and Oliver Kapanen that was among the most dangerous on Monday night. He finished a +2 versus the Blue Jackets and played just over a minute less than Cole Caufield despite the demotion. That line quickly settled into the game its first time together, and tonight could be when it truly comes alive the make the difference and put an end to Montreal’s four-game losing streak.