It’s only the quarter mark of the Montreal Canadiens’ 2025-26 season, but it might make sense to split the campaign up into eighths instead. After all, there are two distinct halves, give or take, to these first 20 games.
A Tale of Two Canadiens Teams
The Canadiens jumped out of the gate with a 9-3 record in their first 12. However, over their last eight games, they are 1-4-3, suffering a couple blowout losses in that stretch, which doesn’t even include their last loss, an 8-4 defeat to the Washington Capitals, in which, to the Habs’ credit, they were within striking range until a few minutes left in the contest. However, what’s distressing is how the Capitals had played the night before and had started their backup, whereas the Habs had last played three nights earlier and started Sam Montembeault, effectively their No. 1 goalie.
What’s more distressing (other than Montembeault continuing to struggle, having gotten pulled after allowing a goal one minute in and two quick ones to fourth-liner Ethen Frank to start the second period) is Jake Evans left the game after taking a high, late hit from Capitals forward Tom Wilson. Now, this isn’t shocking in that a) Wilson has established that as is his modus operandi and b) the Canadiens themselves have a long history of suffering through countless injuries.
Montreal Canadiens forward Jake Evans – (Amy Irvin / The Hockey Writers)
Currently, assuming an unfortunate worst-case scenario and that Evans misses time too, based on his history of concussions, they’ll have five players out of the lineup, all of whom are fairly significant. Some may split hairs and argue Patrik Laine, who had been playing on the fourth line before suffering a core-muscle injury that is projected to keep him out of the lineup until a few months into 2026, is relatively inconsequential. Even if you disregard his team-leading 15 power-play goals last season and argue for whatever reason that he’s too much of a liability, consider the following:
Before all the injuries started to pile up, Evans had been on the fourth line too. It’s only a recent development, i.e., fellow-centre Kirby Dach’s broken foot, that he began playing on the third. All this speaks to the obvious ramifications of multiple injuries. All of a sudden you find players out of their initially designated roles, forcing them to proverbially punch above their weight, which just isn’t sustainable over extended periods of time.
Laine vs. Veleno
Maybe Laine is replaceable. The argument isn’t that he’s a superstar talent going to waste on Line 4 purely for head coach Martin St. Louis’ perverse enjoyment. The flaws in his game, especially at even strength are clear. However, his ability to contribute offensively separates him from Joe Veleno, who just got his first point with the Canadiens against the Capitals in his 15th game of the season, only drawing in once Laine got injured. Veleno is now being thrust into more and more prominent roles, first as the team’s fourth-line centre with the Dach injury, which also moved Evans up the depth chart. If Evans is in fact injured, the implication is Veleno will all of a sudden get deployed down the middle on Line 3, when he made the team out of training camp as a 13th forward.
So, realistically, if you’re expecting the Habs to earn points in the standings with the same regularity as they did for the first 12 games of the season, you’re in for a huge reality check. They may be the same organization, but they’re far from the same team. That having been said, on paper, at least when healthy, this is a better team than the one that reached the Stanley Cup Playoffs last spring, albeit as a second wild-card team that snuck in with a win in Game 82 of the season.
Related: Canadiens Clinch Playoff Spot as Hutson Ties Assist Record
The issue, not excuse, is obviously that the Canadiens are not healthy, and, until the bleeding subsides on the injury front, with signs even pointing to resident ironman Nick Suzuki playing hurt, they’re unlikely to string wins together. That’s the bad news. The good news, and it’s important for all the glass-half-empty fans to acknowledge this, are a few undeniable facts:
While a further surge up the standings was justifiably expected this season, no one should have anticipated the Canadiens to run roughshod over the NHL for 82 games, at which their early-season success might have hinted. They were always going to suffer through a slump.
Despite their struggles, they’re just a point out of a wild-card spot right now. So, they’re far from out of anything.
They’re actually in a better position right now than they were at this time last season.
In fact, on Nov. 21 of last season, they were 7-10-2, effectively the inverse of their record right now. Cue Laine’s debut on Dec. 3 after he had sustained a knee injury that preseason. At that point, the Canadiens were in last place in the East. They rode Laine’s power-play prowess, soon-to-be acquired defenseman Alexandre Carrier’s puck moving, and Jakub Dobes’ (pre-)rookie season success to play .621 hockey the rest of the way to salvage the aforementioned playoff berth (which coincidentally led to a first-round matchup and eventual five-game defeat to the Capitals).
Canadiens Victims of Their Own Success
Regarding Points 2 and 3, the logical argument is general manager Kent Hughes should act before the Canadiens find themselves in too big of a hole. Regarding Point 1, though… should he make a trade at the expense of the team’s long-term prospects? The Habs weren’t exactly going to contend for the Cup this season. While a setback in the form of a non-playoff season (G-d forbid) would suck, the Habs shouldn’t want to give up future success for immediate, potentially short-lived gratification.
It would obviously have to depend on any hypothetical trade. There are certain moves that would make sense. However, keep in mind, with all the injuries and the goaltending as mediocre as it’s been, there’s not exactly an easy fix. Without Kaiden Guhle, the defense looks increasingly porous. When you have to rely on Veleno, all due respect to him, to round out the offense, you’re probably looking at a dip in terms of goals scored to boot.
The reason this is an issue but not an excuse is that it could speak to a lack of organizational depth, which should fall at the feet of Hughes. However, by every objective analysis of the situation, the Canadiens are in a great place prospect-pipeline-wise. Those prospects, like Michael Hage, David Reinbacher, and Jacob Fowler, just aren’t ready yet, as you might expect when you consider the Habs entered the season as the youngest team in the NHL. With the situation framed that way, they’re about where you would expect to be in the standings right now, with the criticism being levelled their way borne largely out of impatience.
“Victims” may be too strong a word relative to the injury situation. Every team goes through them, although it is admittedly hard to find another that has been as adversely affected by injuries since 2021-22. Regardless, they are undeniably victims of their own success to a degree. Now that the early-season success has evaporated, what does that make them?
Just a quarter of the way into the season during which, despite the undeniable frustrations, they’ve shown flashes of how high of a ceiling they can have. It’s no time to press the panic button, especially with so much time until their window to contend closes. As these first 20 games have shown, it hasn’t even opened. There is obvious room for improvement, but they’ll get there on their own, without a move made out of managerial desperation. That much should be obvious too.