The Boston Bruins head to the West Coast as 54% favorites against the struggling San Jose Sharks on Sunday, Nov. 23. This matchup carries massive implications in the playoff hunt. The Bruins dominate the all-time series with a 31-13-5 record. Stats tell a compelling story about who enters SAP Center with momentum.
🔥 Quick Facts:
Bruins favored at -135 moneyline with 54% win probability
Bruins lead head-to-head 31-13-5 all-time against the Sharks
Game time: Sunday, Nov. 23 at 8 PM ET from SAP Center
Over/under set at 6.5 goals with moderate scoring expected
David Pastrnak dominates matchup with 9 goals in 15 games vs San Jose
Bruins Closing Early-Season Struggles
Boston enters this game 2-3-0 in their past five matchups. That’s rough. The Bruins sit 12-10-0 overall with 24 points. Defense. That’s the issue plaguing Beantown. They allow 3.22 goals per game which ranks dead last. The Sharks love to pile on goals. This could get ugly fast if Boston‘s blueline doesn’t tighten up. Still, Pastrnak keeps finding the back of the net consistently. Jeremy Swayman defends the road crease for Boston. He’s crucial here.
Vegas respects what the Bruins bring historically. But recent form matters. The Bruins have won 56.5% of their games this season overall. That sounds decent until you remember they just dropped three of their last five. Joe Sacco‘s squad needs a statement performance.
Sharks Hungry at Home
San Jose is 3-2-0 in their last five games. That’s better than Boston‘s recent stretch. The Sharks sit 10-9-3 with 23 points on the campaign. They rank 22nd in the NHL scoring 2.91 goals per game. Offense isn’t their strength. Still, playing at SAP Center gives them the edge. Home crowds matter in the NHL. Young star Macklin Celebrini (13 goals already) brings scoring punch. Will Smith and forward William Eklund provide secondary firepower.
Think about what the Sharks accomplished recently. They’re trending up. Boston is trending down. That edge in home ice? Plus momentum? San Jose could absolutely steal this one against the spread. Oddsmakers set the Sharks at +113 moneyline for a reason.
Statistical Breakdown & Key Matchups
Statistic
Bruins
Sharks
Record
12-10-0
10-9-3
Last 5 Games
2-3-0
3-2-0
Goals/Game
2.7 avg
2.91 avg
Goals Allowed/Game
3.22 avg (last)
3.0 avg
Head-to-Head (All-Time)
31-13-5
13-31-5
Moneyline
-135
+113
The defensive stats jump off the page. Boston‘s 3.22 goals against average is among the worst in hockey. The Sharks actually have better defensive metrics at 3.0. Expect San Jose to take advantage of Boston‘s blueline vulnerabilities. Celebrini smells blood in the water here.
Pastrnak remains the X-factor. His 9 goals in 15 games against San Jose is absolutely elite. That’s nearly a goal per game in head-to-head matchups. If the Bruins keep feeding him chances, he’ll find the back of the net. Everything hinges on Boston‘s ability to execute in transition.
Prediction & What Happens Next
Statistics indicate the Bruins should win here. They’ve historically dominated this Sharks franchise. The 54% win probability is legitimate. But here’s the rub. Form matters more than history in November. San Jose is 3-2 trending while Boston is 2-3 trending the opposite direction. Swayman needs a bounce-back performance between the pipes.
Look for Pastrnak to carry the offensive load for Boston. Expect Celebrini to create chaos for San Jose. The over/under at 6.5 actually makes sense given both teams’ porous defenses. This could turn into a track meet. Vegas respects Boston‘s talent. Do you?
Can San Jose Pull Off The Upset?
Maybe. The Sharks play at home where anything can happen. Macklin Celebrini‘s emergence gives San Jose real scoring depth. The Bruins allow the most goals per game in hockey. That’s not a recipe for defending on the road. Home ice advantage in the NHL is worth approximately 3% of win probability on its own.
But Boston‘s experience and pedigree shouldn’t be discounted. Pastrnak is a generational talent. Charlie McAvoy anchors the defense. When healthy, these Bruins compete with anyone. Pick Boston based on talent and matchup history. Still, respect what San Jose brings at home.
Sources
Forebet – Win probability analysis and predictions
StatMuse – Head-to-head records and statistics
DunkelIndex – Moneyline probability modeling
Michael Brown is a seasoned sports journalist bringing years of experience covering professional athletics and sporting culture. With a keen eye for breaking stories and player dynamics, this veteran journalist delivers in-depth analysis and exclusive insights from the world’s biggest sporting events. His passion for the game shines through in every story, keeping fans connected to the action both on and off the field.