Don’t look now, but the Calgary Flames woke up this morning not in last place for the first time since October 23rd. It begs the question: are the Flames good? Well, no, they’re not, but at least they’ve won three games in a row for the first time all season. Still, the draft lottery seems like the likely outcome for the Flames.
After what can only be described as a nightmare interview with team President Don Maloney doubling down on the team’s playoff aspirations, where do the Flames stand in their quest to further mediocrity? Are the playoffs in the picture now, or is the draft lottery calling Murray Edwards’ name?
Current NHL standings
As mentioned, the Flames are currently out of last place for the first time in a month. They’ve moved up to 31st after three straight wins.
TeamRecordPoints %Toronto Maple Leafs9-10-3.477St. Louis Blues7-9-6.455Vancouver Canucks9-12-2.435Calgary Flames8-13-3.396Nashville Predators6-11-4.381
Even with a three-game winning streak, the Flames still lead the entire NHL with 13 regulation losses and 16 losses overall. Their eight wins are third third-worst in the league, behind Nashville’s six and the Blues’ seven. Their .396 point percentage is the second-worst in the league as they’ve played 24 games, more than any other bottom-feeder.
Path to the playoffs
So, if the organization truly believes the playoffs are still possible, what must the Flames do in the remaining 58 games to get there? Even with their recent success, the playoffs still look like a massive uphill battle. Given the team’s disastrous start, they’ll need to play some elite hockey from now until April to get into the playoffs.
For this exercise, let’s assume 97 points is the playoff cut-off this year, as that was the organization’s very vocal target coming into the year. Here are some different outcomes and how close they’d leave the Flames to the playoffs.
Point % in Final 58 GamesSeason-end Point Total.55083.595 (Flames in 2024–25)88.677 (Flames in 2021–22)98
Just like when we looked last week, the Flames’ odds at the playoffs seem slim. Even after their three-game winning streak, the team would still need to play at a ridiculous .677 pace in the final 58 games to reach the playoffs threshold. For reference, only three teams are playing at that clip so far this season: the Avalanche, Hurricanes, and Stars.
If anyone has watched the 2025-26 Flames, you’d know how impossible it looks for this team to replicate the winning pace of that juggernaut 2021-22 team. Winning three in a row certainly helps, but this team will need multiple massive winning streaks double the size of the current one to even sniff the playoff bubble.
If they manage to replicate their point pace from last season (.595) when they nearly made the playoffs, they’d still come nowhere close to the playoffs with only 88 points at year’s end. That pace would still leave them around nine points shy of the cutoff mark.
Road to a top-five pick
Now let’s take a look at the reverse, and see where the Flames could land in the draft lottery based on different results the rest of the season.
For context, the bottom five in the NHL last year ranged from 52 points in dead last to 76 points in fifth last to 82 points in 10th last.
Point % in Final 62 GamesSeason-end Point Total.396 (current pace)65.409 (Flames in 1997–98, worst pace in franchise history)66.470 (2013–14 Flames, highest draft pick in franchise history)74.50077
While things look a tad better than they did before this winning streak, the Flames still look destined for a bottom-five finish this season. If they continue to play at their current .396 pace, they’d end the year with 65 points. That total will almost certainly be good enough for a bottom-three finish and some great lottery odds.
If the Flames were to play at the same pace they did in 2013–14 when they drafted Sam Bennett at fourth overall, they’d finish this season with 74 points. While it’s inching out of the highest pick in franchise history territory, that total likely still leaves the Flames sitting in the bottom five at year’s end with great lottery odds.
Even if the team somehow righted the ship and played .500 hockey the rest of the way, a big ask for a team with eight wins in 24 games, they’d still only be in line for around 77 points. That would likely place them with the fifth or sixth best lottery odds and still firmly in the bottom 10 of the league.
Where there is delusion, there is hope
Even with their longest winning streak of the season, the Flames’ hopes of a playoff spot remain incredibly small. Unless the team turns their game around and plays at the best rate in franchise history, a bottom-10 finish for the Flames and a place in the lottery still seems likely despite what ownership wants you to believe.
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