The Edmonton Oilers will need to have another second-half resurgence if they want to make it back to the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
For the third year in a row, the Oilers have looked dead on arrival to start the new season. After 24 games, Edmonton is sitting just above .500 with a 10-9-5 record and 25 points. The team is sitting outside of a playoff spot, behind teams like the San Jose Sharks, Utah Mammoths, Seattle Kraken, and the Pacific Division-leading Anaheim Ducks.
In previous seasons, the Oilers have found ways to recover from a poor start and get things turned around, but can they do it again? Is the fatigue of two straight Stanley Cup Final seasons starting to take a toll on Edmonton? Are the Oilers really at risk of missing the playoffs?
That seems to be what analytics website MoneyPuck is saying, as they are giving the Oilers just a one-in-three chance of qualifying for the playoffs. As of Monday morning, Edmonton’s odds are sitting at just 33 per cent.
moneypuck.com
That lags behind a bevy of teams that failed to qualify for last year’s playoffs, including the Columbus Blue Jackets (40.1 per cent), Pittsburgh Penguins (54.3 per cent), New York Islanders (72.5 per cent), and the aforementioned Ducks (83.7 per cent).
The Florida Panthers, who have fewer points than the Oilers and are coming off an Edmonton defeat, also rank much higher in playoff chances at 67.7 per cent.
As for Stanley Cup odds, you cannot even see Edmonton’s percentage on the provided graph. A closer look at their website puts the Oilers’ odds of winning it all at a measly one per cent. A division title is just a tiny bit more likely than that at 3.1 per cent, despite the Oilers being just four points behind Anaheim at the moment.
According to MoneyPuck, the most likely playoff spot for the Oilers to finish in, if they do at all, would be a repeat of last season at third place in the Pacific Division, with an 11.6 per cent chance.
While it may be disheartening for Oilers fans to look at those low numbers, it should be noted that these are not set in stone. This model updates regularly, and the Oilers could easily up those numbers if they can put together a run in the next week or so.
What it does say is that the current trajectory of the team is not one of a playoff team, meaning something will have to change sooner rather than later.