For years, American Thanksgiving has served as one of the NHL’s most reliable predictive benchmarks. In the salary cap era, roughly 77 percent of teams sitting in a playoff spot on Thanksgiving ultimately qualify for the playoffs in April. Last season, 12 of 16 teams, or 75 percent, held their ground. It’s a trend coaches, executives, and fans have leaned on for years to separate early-season pretenders from legitimate contenders.
But this year the Eastern Conference might be breaking the model.
As New York Islanders fans wake up on Thanksgiving morning, their team sits in a playoff position, fourth in the Metropolitan Division and holding the top Wild Card spot with 28 points. Under normal circumstances, that would be cause for cautious optimism.
This season, though, the margin for error is paper thin.
Five teams sit within two points of the Islanders. Three of them, including the Flyers who visit UBS Arena on Black Friday, are only a single point behind and have played two fewer games. In other words, the standings can be flipped on their head within 24 hours. That is not hyperbole, it is the mathematical reality of the most compressed Eastern Conference in recent memory.
Just days ago, the Islanders had the second most points in the conference. A couple of missed opportunities later, they were staring at the edge of the playoff bubble. That volatility is not a reflection of inconsistency, it is a reflection of an Eastern Conference stuffed tighter than it has been in years.
Parity has always been a defining NHL trait, but this might be the most dramatic example yet. The loser point only tightens the pack, and this season’s added layer of complexity, an Olympic break followed by a frantic trade deadline and sprint to the finish, promises even more chaos.
So yes, be thankful the Islanders enter the holiday in the playoff picture. But this year, more than most, Thanksgiving positioning is less destiny than it is a snapshot in time.
The real test, and the real separation, begins now.