Edmonton Oilers defenceman Evan Bouchard got off to a slow start this season. Again. The perception of the young star over the past several seasons involves early wobble, a strong build through the regular season and then historically outstanding production in the playoffs.

The negatives can sometimes push out what’s positive about this unique player. Even in a season of struggle, Bouchard ranks No. 11 in five-on-five points per 60 by defencemen (No. 4 in first assists per 60) and is pivotal to Edmonton’s power-play success. The ghastly October has given way to a substantially better November.

Why do these slow starts happen? Is there a way for Bouchard and the Oilers to get off to a fast start? How high can Bouchard fly? And finally, are the off games from Bouchard ever going away?

Month by month

Bouchard isn’t caught in a “Groundhog Day” scenario completely, but there’s a definite trend (with one outlier). Here’s a look at the month of October from the last four years.

OctoberPts-60Goal Pct

2022

0.92

42

2023

1.93

36

2024

1.73

60

2025

0.86

31

All numbers five-on-five, via Natural Stat Trick

There is remarkable consistency in these numbers. In three of the last four Octobers, Bouchard has been on the ice for an expansion-level goal share while playing on a Stanley Cup contender. He scored impressive individual points per 60 in two of those months, and in October 2023, he accomplished the impossible: outstanding individual offence while contributing to the team’s cratering at five-on-five.

It would be unfair to blame Bouchard for all of the ills of Octobers past, but there’s math and visual evidence of less-than-stellar defensive coverage.

Why does this happen?

The Oilers are an exceptional team of talent, but there’s more roster turnover than ideal due to the top-heavy roster. Edmonton is carrying four roster players with more than $9 million cap total, and three more with cap hits between $5 million and $6 million. That’s a substantial percentage of the money devoted to seven players. That’s why October is more of a meet-and-greet in Edmonton than a dogged pursuit of standings points.

The team also lacks the kind of depth necessary to give its best players proper rest. In some Octobers, Bouchard has played with banged-up defensive partners and players who haven’t enjoyed a full training camp. It’s been years since the organization ran an efficient cap that allowed room for a full and healthy 23-man roster. That should be a goal for management.

Is there a better way? 

The Oilers missed an opportunity to marble inexpensive youth onto the roster when slow-playing Dylan Holloway and Philip Broberg. Those two players eventually bolted the organization in favour of more money and playing time with the St. Louis Blues.

Stan Bowman has correctly identified the need for value contracts attached to quality youth. Fans can see it in Matt Savoie currently, and Ike Howard will eventually rejoin the group. That won’t help the October 2025 performance, but should lead to less turnover in feature roles next fall.

Bowman also spent much of last spring and summer signing bona fide talents who could be deployed in the AHL this season. Those names are currently fighting it out in Bakersfield in order to rise above the rest in time for the next recall. Rookie pro Connor Clattenburg won the first flight among Bakersfield Condors, but any of Howard, Quinn Hutson, Josh Samanski and others could be heading north later this season. It’s possible the Oilers grab a value contract in a significant role for 2026-27 from that group of players.

How high can he fly? 

The Oilers fan base is often a house divided on numerous items of interest surrounding the team. Bouchard is a constant topic of conversation. He’s a puck-moving defenceman who can bleed turnovers at a rapid rate; he has lapses in coverage that look ghastly on replays. Those goals against can also cost games, so there is merit in the worry.

On the other hand, Bouchard’s passing ability and offensive creativity open up fantastic opportunities for the top-end of the team’s roster. Bouchard makes plays with the puck that few other NHL players can manage.

Along with the positive visuals on the goals, math loves him. Sometimes math endorses Bouchard in ways one wouldn’t expect.

Since the beginning of the 2023-24 season, Connor McDavid’s line scored 3.86 goals per 60 at five-on-five away from Bouchard, and 3.75 goals per 60 with the defenceman. That’s basically the same success rate for McDavid.

The difference comes in the percentage of goals together (61 percent McDavid-Bouchard) and apart (49 percent for the captain), via Natural Stat Trick. That is counterintuitive based on Bouchard’s skill set, but the Oilers don’t defend as much with him on the ice. The puck is heading north, under control, due to his passing and vision.

Ideally, Bouchard plays with McDavid’s line and the Oilers enjoy a massive edge in goal share at five-on-five.

The importance of McDavid-Bouchard, in November, is something close to magic. In 126 minutes together (some of that time with Leon Draisaitl as well), Edmonton is scoring 4.28 goals per 60 and played to a 64 percent goal share. That’s peak Bouchard, and he’s absolutely elite when things are humming with the McDavid line.

McDavid-Bouchard at five-on-five in November is back to being equal to an outstanding power play. The inconsistent play will return, as it did on Tuesday night versus the Dallas Stars, but for the organization (and Oilers fans), it’s important to remember what Bouchard means to outscoring success.

Will the off games ever cease?

Bouchard had a tough night against the Stars on Tuesday. Including all game states, he and defensive partner Mattias Ekholm were on for five goals against. Bouchard was unaware of pressure on the first goal against, and “also in photo” in a few others, where more urgency or an active stick may have altered the play.

In fairness, Oilers fans have been debating the Bouchard dilemma since he arrived, and wonder if those error-prone evenings will ever cease.

The answer? McDavid-Bouchard at five-on-five is magic. Both men hover around 50 percent without each other at five-on-five, and flourish with each other (63 percent). It’s a game breaker and has been for years.

Bouchard’s November, Tuesday aside, has fans once again believing in him. He’s a unique player, with tremendous gifts and furious flaws. The Oilers are better for having him on the team.