If the Edmonton Oilers turn things around in the short term, Connor Clattenburg will be a big part of that story.
If the Oilers turn things around in the longer term and find a way to make another run at the Stanley Cup in the spring of 2026, Trent Frederic will also have to be part of that story.
Clattenburg, 20, is at this moment doing everything that Edmonton Oilers fans hoped they would see from Frederic, 27, this season.
Clattenburg is hitting, taking on fights, aggravating and annoying opponents in post-whistle skirmishes and he even scored a goal, which makes him one shy of equalling Frederic’s total of goal total for the year.
Frederic is throwing a good number of hits, but his points scoring has evaporated, he’s not helping to create Grade A shots and he’s been the least effective two-way forward on the Oilers defensively at even strength, making the highest rate of mistakes on Grade A shots of any regular winger on the team.
Grade A 26 games
It’s gotten to the point where there will be a fan revolt if Clattenburg is sent to the minors, or even taken out of the line-up in favour of Frederic.
Clattenburg has 14 hits in three games, good for 33.1 hits per 60 minutes of play. That is tops in the entire NHL for players who have played at least three games. Of course, three games is a small sample size. It will be tough for Clattenburg to keep up that kind of pace. But if he can settle in that more than 20 hits per 60 I can’t see how he doesn’t stick with the Oilers, at least if he can find a way to defend adequately, as he’s so far done.
His emergence could present a quandary for coach Kris Knoblauch, especially when centre Noah Philp, Jack Roslovic and aggressive Kasperi Kapanen get healthy. It’s hard to imagine that Roslovic and Kapanen won’t play, but that means two forwards will have to come out of the line-up. On merit, if trends continue as they’re now going, on merit it should be Frederic and Curtis Lazar out of the line-up, Kapanen and Roslovic in.
It will be a ballsy move to sit Frederic, who just signed an eight-year deal. That said, Frederic was already busted down on merit to the fourth line against Seattle. If he doesn’t pick up his play, there’s no real choice but to sit him. The Oilers are in the hunt for a playoff spot. They can’t have any passengers at forward.
Clattenburg is no passenger. He’s no conductor either. But he’s the soot-smeared stoker shovelling coal into the furnace. Without four or five forwards like that, the train goes nowhere fast.
As it stands now the Oilers don’t have a true power forward, no one who ranks in the Top 50 if you combine points production with hitting rates at even strength.
Vasily Podkolzin comes closest, ranking 63rd overall out of 415 regular NHL forwards in combined hit/points rates at even strength.
In the playoffs, we know a player like Zach Hyman will step up and be one of the leading power forwards. Hyman is a smart veteran who saves the physical pounding for the playoffs. Adam Henrique and Mattias Janmark do the same.
Frederic is hitting enough right now, but he ranks 402nd out of 415 for even strength point scoring and his defensive play is little better.
It could well be that Frederic is still finding his way back from his wicked ankle sprain last winter. It could well be that he’ll find his game again with the Oilers and become an effective Top 9 power forward. There’s certainly not any giving up on him, not with his eight-year deal. I certainly haven’t given up on rooting for the guy, as mystified as I am about the low level of two-way play he’s provided since he arrived.
It would certainly be great if he could find a way to ride shotgun with Clattenburg in the hitting and intimidation department. This job should not be left in the hands primarily of one 20-year-old rookie, and it’s been good to see a player like Darnell Nurse rediscover his nasty edge in the past few games. Frederic could be an immense help to the Oilers if he rediscovers the nasty edge and effective two-way play that Oilers GM Stan Bowman evidently saw from Frederic’s time in Boston (otherwise why the eight-year contract). In fact, if Frederic doesn’t find that game that Bowman so much faith in, it’s difficult to imagine Edmonton competing for the Cup. He’s got to pick up his two-way play, just like Darnell Nurse and Jake Walman have got to do.
But the clock is ticking on Frederic finding it just now. If he doesn’t improve fast, he’ll be off the fourth line and in the press box.
Connor Clattenburg
At the Cult of Hockey
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