When Edmonton Oilers head coach Kris Knoblauch arrived to take over the job in November 2023, the team’s record was in the ditch, and there was no time to waste.

On the day Knoblauch took over from Jay Woodcroft, the Oilers owned a 3-9-1 record. From that point (Nov. 12, 2023), the team took off like a rocket, posting a 47-14-8 record the rest of the way. Knoblauch had to deal with some major issues, including key injuries (Connor McDavid, Mattias Ekholm), goaltending and poor special teams, but Edmonton rallied (changing the head coach often gets a bounce) and made it all the way to the Stanley Cup Final.

On the day Woodcroft was fired, the Oilers owned a 3.9 goals-against (GA) per 60 in all game states. Once Knoblauch took over, the team delivered 2.65 GA per 60. The goals-for (GF) per 60 went from 2.68 before Knoblauch to 3.68 the rest of the season.

Knoblauch faced similar challenges in 2024-25, again correcting the issue in November. Once again, the coaching staff found the formula for success and rocked the rest of the regular season. This fall, the team suffered another miserable start, and the usual suspects contributed to the problem. Until recently, no solutions had appeared.

What changed two years ago? Last year? And did Knoblauch identify an issue in the last few games? The Oilers played a complete game against the Seattle Kraken on Saturday afternoon. Edmonton’s defence looked calm, forwards offered support and Stuart Skinner showed calm feet and delivered a shutout. The team had good practices and then executed like the team fans expected in October.

Is there anything in common from the past that Knoblauch has discovered? There may be a clue in Saturday’s game.

2023-24

The Knoblauch coaching team, with Paul Coffey leading the defencemen, changed out the top pairing of Darnell Nurse and Cody Ceci and deployed Ekhom and Evan Bouchard in a more prominent fashion. In fact, Knoblauch ran the McDavid line with the Bouchard pairing for 736 of the captain’s 1,058 minutes during his first season as coach. That’s 70 percent of the McDavid minutes. The result? A 5.05 GF per 60 for the five-man unit and a 67 percent goal share while they were on the ice. When the top line and pairing were at rest, the Oilers scored just 2.04 GF per 60 but did manage a 52 percent goal percentage.

The goaltending also corrected. On Nov. 12, 2023, Edmonton’s two goaltenders owned save percentages well south of .900 at five-on-five. Skinner (.897 in nine games) and Jack Campbell (.879 in five games) struggled at the beginning of the year. From the time Knoblauch took over, Skinner delivered a .916 save percentage in 50 games, while recall Calvin Pickard posted a .926 save percentage in 24 games.

Flipping the top defensive duo and running McDavid-Bouchard, along with a more productive tandem in goal, saved the 2023-24 season. Edmonton would land just shy of a Stanley Cup victory.

2024-25

Knoblauch was the incumbent coach for 2024-25, but his team had massive turnover. July 1 saw a large number of free-agent signings or re-signings (Viktor Arvidsson, Jeff Skinner, Adam Henrique, Mattias Janmark, Connor Brown, Corey Perry, Troy Stecher, Josh Brown), giving the appearance of loading up a roster that almost won the championship in the summer of 2024.

Things got complicated when two young players who were being counted on (Dylan Holloway and Philip Broberg) bolted the team via offer sheet. It meant a massive amount of churn year over year, leaving the team that made the 2024 final a distant memory.

The Oilers struggled for those reasons in the early days of the 2024-25 campaign, but the lows weren’t at the same level as 2023-24. Knoblauch righted the ship by switching out partners for Nurse on the second pairing, something that took longer than hoped because of the absence of proven candidates. Stecher, Ty Emberson, Travis Dermott and Brett Kulak all had a shot through the first two months of the season, with the Nurse-Stecher pairing producing the desired results.

Goaltending was once again an issue, but a close look at Knoblauch and Coffey’s defensive template revealed that the plan was working, but the goaltending lagged. One year ago, I wrote, “Knoblauch and his staff have had a material impact on the club’s defensive game. We know the team has improved in shot suppression in the Knoblauch era; these totals (specifically expected goals against) offer proof of a significant change in approach and execution for the Oilers. Knoblauch’s system was working, but the goaltending lagged behind the progress.”

From the end of November 2024 through the end of the regular season, Skinner produced a five-on-five save percentage of .902 for the Oilers. It was not a championship-quality season for Skinner, and once again Nurse’s struggles required a checkdown for the veteran defenceman. Which brings us to this season, and the Saturday game versus Seattle.

2025-26

The Oilers have been solid in shot suppression since Knoblauch arrived. Here’s a look at expected goals surrendered over the since 2023-24:

Category2023-242024-252025-26

SA-60

26.8

26.1

24.6

HDSCA-60

10.1

9.5

11.23

XGA-60

2.4

2.38

2.67

GA-60

2.3

2.52

3.01

All numbers at five-on-five, via Natural Stat Trick

The Oilers were much improved when Knoblauch arrived, and shot suppression remains a strength. The high-danger number has increased, and the GA per 60 and expected GA per 60 are higher this season.

The Oilers shut out the Kraken on Saturday, playing a more structured game. Knoblauch ran his best centres at centre, something he hasn’t done consistently this season. He also faded the Nurse pairing and elevated the third tandem, Kulak with Emberson. Here’s a look at the deployment Saturday in Seattle:

PairingMinutesX-Goals

Kulak-Emberson

14:48

54 pct

Ekholm-Bouchard

14:45

49 pct

Nurse-Regula

12:40

69 pct

All numbers at five-on-five, via Natural Stat Trick

It’s one game, and the Kraken aren’t the Colorado Avalanche or Dallas Stars. However, just as the coach faded Nurse in his first two seasons with the Oilers, it may be happening again. Giving Nurse a chance to reset on the third pair makes sense. He’s not the same player he was one year ago. His five-on-five goal share and expected goal share this year are 43 and 44 percent, respectively.

The team’s attention to detail included more organized outlets and less gap between the forwards and defencemen. The team isn’t quite all the way back to the “five-man breakouts” of yesteryear, but progress has been made.

If the Oilers continue to play with structure and responsibility, the last hurdle for Knoblauch will be in goal. Skinner’s shutout is encouraging, but he wasn’t tested often by Seattle. The word from Oilers management is that they won’t make a panic deal for a goaltender. The performance of Skinner and Pickard will inform future actions at the position. Connor Ingram had a good game going Saturday in the AHL before getting hurt, perhaps delaying a recall and audition.

The new outlets, attention to detail, Skinner’s shutout and fading the Nurse pairing suggest that Knoblauch identified this year’s problems and has charted a new course. If it works, Knoblauch will have saved the day once again. If it doesn’t, expect a goaltender change in the weeks to come.