This past Saturday, the New Jersey Devils lost in regulation to the Philadelphia Flyers. It was their second regulation loss to Philadelphia in a week. Those losses by themselves don’t spell doom for New Jersey, but they are emblematic of a budding concern for the team: Mediocre results against Metropolitan Division opponents.
Just take a look at the Metro standings. The division race is absurdly tight, with first place and last place being separated by a mere six points entering Sunday. It’s kind of hard to believe, but one bad week could see New Jersey plummet all the way down from the penthouse of the division to the basement, the margin for error is that thin. That’s why back-to-back regulation losses to the Flyers are so frustrating, as four-point swings make a huge difference right now. If, say, the Devils had split regulation wins with the Flyers instead of losing both games in 60 minutes, New Jersey would be six points clear of Philadelphia instead of two. And since Philadelphia currently has a game in hand on the Devils, that theoretical six-point margin would ensure that New Jersey could not be caught if the Flyers win that game in hand. Instead, the Devils are only two points up on a team they’ve already lost to twice.
New Jersey has thus far gone 3-3-1 against Metropolitan Division teams. That’s not a good record, but thankfully it’s not terrible either. The other problem, though, is that only one of those three wins came in regulation: The October 13 game in Columbus against the Blue Jackets. A game, by the way, in which New Jersey got outshot 33-28 and, according to Natural Stat Trick, posted a 5-on-5 Expected Goals For% of 39.21. So the only division game this year where the Devils did not allow their opponent to get any points was a game where they were lucky to get any results in the first place.
Put another way, out of a possible 14 points, Metropolitan Division opponents have collected 10 of those available points against the Devils. New Jersey has only attained seven of 14 possible points, meaning they are losing the collective battle against their Metropolitan Division foes, which could haunt them down the stretch of the regular season.
In case you need a reminder, here is a rundown of this year’s matchups against each Metro team:
Games Played So Far: 10/9 (6-3 regulation loss)
Opponent Points Gained: 2/2
Future Games: 1/4 (home), 1/17 (home), 3/28 (away)
Games Played So Far: 10/13 (3-2 regulation win)
Opponent Points Gained: 0/2
Future Games: 12/1 (home), 12/31 (away), 2/3 (home)
Games Played So Far: 11/10 (3-2 overtime loss)
Opponent Points Gained: 2/2
Future Games: 12/23 (away), 1/6 (away), 2/5 (home)
Games Played So Far: none
Opponent Points Gained: N/A
Future Games: 3/7 (home), 3/18 (away), 3/31 (away)
Games Played So Far: 11/22 (6-3 regulation loss), 11/29 (5-3 regulation loss)
Opponent Points Gained: 4/4
Games Played So Far: 11/8 (2-1 shootout win)
Opponent Points Gained: 1/2
Future Games: 1/8 (away), 2/26 (away), 4/9 (home)
Games Played So Far: 11/15 (3-2 shootout win)
Opponent Points Gained: 1/2
Future Games: 12/27 (home), 3/20 (away), 4/2 (home)
I am aware that there are legitimate excuses for why New Jersey has struggled against the Metro this season. For one thing, they’ve played many of these division games (including both contests against the Flyers) without their best player, Jack Hughes. Aside from Hughes, we all know how decimated by injuries New Jersey has been in the early part of the season. The schedule hasn’t helped either, serving up a hellacious run of quality opponents with not much rest to be had. All are legitimate extenuating circumstances to be sure.
Still, despite the reasonable excuses, this is a results-oriented business. And the inter-division results thus far have not been good. The Devils have a chance to get back on track tonight at The Rock against Columbus, the team that’s dead last in the division entering today, but only six points behind New Jersey. A regulation win would put eight points between the Devils and Blue Jackets, but a regulation loss would allow Columbus to climb to within four points of New Jersey. It’s a big game, but considering how tight the division is at the moment, every Metro matchup is a big game.
Now, you would expect the Metropolitan to ease up a little more as the season goes on. The Penguins and Flyers are wildly exceeding preseason expectations, so perhaps they come back down to earth soon. The Islanders are better than most people thought, so maybe they fade as well. The Blue Jackets are as scrappy as they were last season, but they still might not be ready to win yet. The Rangers and Capitals are established playoff contenders, but they’re both old teams with significant vulnerabilities. That leaves Carolina as the only major threat in the division.
But there are no guarantees in life. Maybe the Penguins, Flyers, and Islanders never fade away. Maybe the Blue Jackets are ready to take that next step from plucky young team to playoff contender. Maybe the Rangers and Capitals overcome their flaws and continue to be postseason fixtures. The point is, New Jersey cannot bank on the Metropolitan Division gifting them a playoff spot, which is more or less what happened a season ago. I don’t expect lightning to strike twice, so if the Devils want to maintain their grip on a playoff spot and get another crack at the Stanley Cup, they need to figure out how to start getting results against their Metropolitan Division rivals.
What do you make of New Jersey’s early struggles against the Metro? Do you expect the results to get better as the team gets healthier? Aside from Carolina, which team in the division concerns you the most? As always, thanks for reading!