While I am coming to terms with the debacle of an outing the Winnipeg Jets had last night in Buffalo…and in an attempt to distract me from thinking about how Wednesday’s game against the Montreal Canadiens will go…I figured I would dive into the True Northers issues with secondary scoring this season.
For this review, I opted to stick with Winnipeg’s forward position. The reason for this becomes obvious when you consider that the top unit of Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor, & Gabriel Vilardi are out-scoring their teammates 24 to 17 during 5 on 5 play. That is 3 first liners versus 13 bottom niners….and in case you were wondering about the actual ice time, Scheifele’s line had 1,132 minutes to 2,431 minutes for the remaining skaters, which works out to 31.8% of playing time for the top trio.
Why I am focusing this article on the bottom nine can be explained if you compare the above information to how the Jets performed last season. During the President’s Trophy run, the Scheifele line scored a total of 58 goals, which is quite a bit lower than the 78.7 pace they currently are on. With Nikolaj Ehlers on the roster, the rest of Winnipeg’s forwards pocketed 93 goals, which is no where near the 55.8 goal pace the bottom niners have at this point.
To drive that home just a bit further, the True North top line has scored 58.5% of goals for the team (5 on 5) compared to 38.4% last season. While that increase has been helped by the Jets’ top 3 scoring at a much higher pace, it also is a reflection of just how badly the rest of the club has done (11 less goals at 5 on 5 by this point in the year). A worrisome aspect is that is unlikely that the Scheifele line can keep up a nearly goal per game pace at even strength, so is there hope that the red lights will eventually be lit by the bottom nine? Are they snake bit? Or just bad?
With 25 games under their belts, the vast majority of the Jets’ forwards have given us a big enough data pool to suggest what type of impact they can provide on the ice. So lets try and answer those questions by looking at MoneyPuck’s On Ice Goals Percentage statistic for 5 on 5 play. I opted to leave the limited minutes played by rookies like Brad Lambert, Nikita Chibrikov, & Parker Ford out of the equation, leaving us with a total of 13 Winnipeg forwards. And since we are supposed to be focusing on everyone but the top forward unit, I left that trio off the chart below, which is sorted from worst to last.
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Now if you are a person that believes what actually occurred on the ice is all that matters, then GM Kevin Cheveldayoff has his Problems To Address list right there. While it is not nice to see 4th line Cole Koepke getting out-scored 3 to 1, it is down right awful to see 2nd liners Cole Perfetti & Jonathan Toews in the same range. Bottom sixers Alex Iafallo & Morgan Barron are next up, allowing 6 goals against for every 4 their lines score for the Jets. Ugly numbers for two key Winnipeg forwards Adam Lowry & Vladislav Namestnikov this year. Finally, we get to the “best” of the bottom nine where veterans like Tanner Pearson, Gustav Nyquist, & Nino Niederreiter are only slightly being out-scored at even strength.
So, problem solved, right? Okay, maybe not solved, but identified? Well, some of you might not be so quick to reach a conclusion…possibly demanding that we at least consider the shots on goal for & against data. Since I am here to please, I will gladly oblige those requests by providing you with a new diagram from MoneyPuck. The graphic below includes the Corsi (shot attempts) and Fenwick (unblocked shot attempts) numbers, lets see what we can glean from it.
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I kept the same order from our first chart, as it should help us see which players are deservedly getting out-scored and which ones may be victims of bad puck luck. Well, first thing that jumps out is that pretty much all these new numbers are not good signs. With only 2 players over 50% and Namestnikov flirting with that distinction, you can see how much Winnipeg has been struggling when the top line isn’t playing.
The shot data suggests that forwards like Perfetti, Nyquist, Namestnikov, & Toews all deserve a better goals for/against differential, while others like Lowry, Niederreiter, & Iaffalo are basically getting what they deserved from their play.
Since we know that not all shots have an equal chance of beating a goaltender, I’ll bet some of you out there are wondering if players like Perfetti & Nyquist, who’s lines have been out shooting the opposition, are actually creating good scoring opportunities. Well, MoneyPuck’s next diagram below that includes 2 more columns, outlining the forwards’ On Ice Expected Goals % and the Off Ice Expected Goals %, will aid us in exploring that.
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We might as well follow the player order in this graphic, as I write any observations that I think of. Sounds like a plan.
Starting off with Koepke, who could make a case that he deserved a better fate…yet even if that was true, it would only make his numbers go from awful (25%) to pretty bad (36%). Next up is a player that seems to draw a lot of criticism for his lack of production and there is no doubt that Perfetti has coughed up a number of great looks through his 11 games. The Expected Goal (xG) data supports that, even going as far to suggest that his line should have out-scored the opposition (up to 51% from 28%), which may surprise some fans. To round out the top 3 in this paragraph, we get to Chevy’s off-season gamble on Toews making a comeback after missing two complete seasons. The actual goals % numbers are bad, with the team giving up 7 goals for every 3 scored when the Winnipeg-born forward is on the ice. Now the shots and xG data says that things should be better than that….but still not that good. I loved the story and hoped for the best, but despite Jonathan being very good at some things (63% face offs, ability to use his body to hold off an opponent when he is cycling the o-zone, etc)….I think it might be time to call it on the #2 center experiment. With the 4th most 5 on 5 ice time for the Jets so far, he has been deployed like that by coach Scott Arniel. Probably time to switch that up, but unfortunately neither Barron nor Namestnikov are showing that they are ready to step into the role.
Sitting in 4th we get to Iafallo, who’s lines have played only slightly better than his On Ice Goals % of 39% suggests, but his 43.1% xG% is a far cry from the 55.8 xG% he put up last season. Alex actually led Winnipeg with a 65.5% On Ice Goals % last year too. While the numbers don’t scream improvements should be expected in the future…I have to believe they will since the veteran has never performed this poorly in his long career. Next up at 5th is Barron, who started off hot offensively but has since cooled off. The data implies that his line should be closer to the 50% mark, but the speedy & big center hasn’t been helped with consistent linemates (6 different combos so far). Once again, I am relying on guts to suggest that the Bear could possibly fill that 2C role (53.5% face-offs), you could even keep using Toews for face-offs with them switching responsibilities shortly after. Might provide some much needed size & speed to the 2nd line. Somewhat like Perfetti, Namestnikov’s xG numbers suggest that Winnipeg should have scored a bit more when the Russian was on the ice, they are still no where near what he put up last season (58.5% On Ice Goals & 52.3% On Ice xG’s). Without Ehlers on his wing, I am not sure he can replicate that, but we should expect at least a small improvement from his 43% On Ice Goals %. Captain Lowry has only played 13 games since returning from off-season surgery…and he definitely isn’t back to his normal self. After putting up 61.8% On Ice Goals & 55.2% On Ice xG’s leading the Jets’ shutdown unit last year, the big guy’s 45.5% & 47.5% can’t compare. To my old eyes, I haven’t noticed that Adam has lost a step or anything, so I just have to believe that he will get up to speed sooner or later and start causing more problems for Winnipeg’s opposition.
Down to our final three, which actually means that in terms of goal differential, these are the best the True Northers can ice outside of the 1st forward line. While that certainly may be true for 10th ranked Niederreiter, who has scored 23.6% of the goals by the bottom niners. With an xG rating close to 50%, the Swiss forward has been one forward who has consistently showed up for this club. Currently the Jets have 4 line combinations that have managed at least 50% of the xG’s….and Nino is on 3 of them, leaving only the top unit of Connor, Scheifele, & Vilardi as the exception. So probably not part of the problem. Moving onto two more controversial players in Pearson & Nyquist, who might surprise some fans by only losing the goal scoring battle by a slim margin. Yet the other stats say that Tanner has been getting lucky, as Winnipeg has been getting out played when he is deployed, with a goal differential in the 60% range for the opposition. On the other hand, Gustav is one of two bottom nine forwards that has positive shot & expected goal categories, implying that the Jets just aren’t sniping well enough when the Swede is on the ice. Based on their histories, I am actually not surprised that Pearson has been worse defensively than Nyquist. Was against the first signing and think my gut was proven correct. On the second, I was hopeful about it and knew that the winger could be trusted to play a 2 way game, but did worry about the drop in offense from a few years ago. And those concerns have come to bear, with Gustav still searching for his 1st goal wearing a Winnipeg jersey.
While I think I have a better idea of which players I would replace in the line up at this point, I thought we would check out one more chart from our friends at MoneyPuck. The Corsi, Fenwick, & Expected Goals data are excellent tools to try and assess a player’s performance, but they are all talking about what the 5 players on the ice for the Jets were doing. So in order to try to find out which of these 10 players constitute the biggest goal scoring threats, let us dig into the numbers in the graphic below showing where each player was getting their scoring looks from (5 on 5 play).
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I am not sure we have enough time to go through this all in detail, so I will point out some of the things that stood out to me. Feel free to spend more time pouring over the numbers to make your own conclusions…would be happy to hear them in the Comment section.
First off, Niederreiter has had the most high danger scoring chances at even strength (3.63 xG’s) out of all Winnipeg forwards, eclipsing Vilardi’s 2.8 & Scheifele’s 2.05. Shows the big winger goes to the dirty areas, though Nino gets less dangerous the further from the crease he is (7th in med & 9th in low). Before I move on to another player on the chart above, I thought I would note that Connor has only had 0.46 high danger xG’s at 5 on 5, though he does come in 2nd in medium & 1st in low danger looks.
Toews’ lack of offensive production doesn’t appear to be from not getting good scoring chances, as the veteran is 4th, 3rd, & 4th in high/med/low xG’s. Part of that is due to being the 4th most played Jets’ forward, but still, Jonathan deserves a bit better fate on the scoresheet. Perfetti’s stats don’t look very good up there, but since this is an xG total, missing 14 contests will play a role in the numbers. Yet Koepke has played similar minutes on the 4th line and put up alike figures in the high & low categories. With Cole’s size, I think he has to live in that medium danger area like Connor does, but whether his shot can provide the red lights from that distance consistently is the biggest concern.
Iafallo & Namestnikov have done decently at getting shots from the high & medium ranges, though if Lowry had played in all the contest, he would likely have better numbers in all of the categories. The Jets definitely need more than a combined 11 points at 5 on 5 from those three. My last observation helped explain to me why so many fans have a beef with the Nyquist signing….while he seems to be responsible at both ends of the ice and Winnipeg gets scoring chances when he is playing, it isn’t because the Swede is getting good looks himself. Gustav has one of the lowest ratings on the team in high danger attempts, behind even Parker Ford, who was limited to 9 less games. The numbers aren’t great from medium & low range either, so it seems that Nyquist is more of a set up man. The problem with that is I don’t think the Jets have enough snipers if players like Perfetti, Toews, Namestnikov, etc are all better at setting up plays, rather than finish them.
After all that, while I have learned some stuff, I am still really not sure what the plan forward should be for the Winnipeg Jets. I think they can probably start playing Pearson less and try inserting a little youth in the line up for motivation and hopefully a little goal scoring help. Would probably be pushing this option much harder if the prospects were lighting up the AHL, but I still would recommend that the coaching staff give it a try over the upcoming month. However, if you do call up the kids, please give them a real opportunity by playing them along side complimentary pieces. This means breaking up the top line, which I usually am not a proponent for, but if a youth movement is going to happen….pair Lambert with Scheifele, Brayden Yager with Connor, Chibrikov with Niederreiter, etc. Give them a shot to “play” on a line, rather than have to drive a unit filled with 4th liners. Also David Gustafsson has reminded me why I always hoped he would succeed with the Jets, as his play with the Manitoba Moose has been excellent. Maybe give him another chance?
As always, comments, criticisms, cash (joking) accepted gratefully. Let me know if MoneyPuck’s data matches what you felt you’ve seen this year from the Winnipeg Jets’ forwards. What changes do you recommend? Mix it up by searching the trade market, selling futures to save this year? Go with the prospects to gain them experience & hope to spark a fire in the rest of the club? Or just keep running it as is, letting the prospects play on a quality AHL team to develop away from the mess Winnipeg will come as they limp their way to a top 10 draft pick?