On Saturday afternoon, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins rejoined the Edmonton Oilers after a three-week absence due to injury. In those three weeks, the Oilers played miserable hockey, winning four of 10 and being outscored 47-28 by opponents.

In his first game back, Nugent-Hopkins scored a power-play goal to open the game and picked up an assist with the man advantage in the second period. He centred the team’s third line (with veterans Adam Henrique and Mattias Janmark), and the trio outshot Seattle 4-3 while delivering a 58 percent expected goal share.

For a team that couldn’t find structure and spent too much time in its own zone, Nugent-Hopkins’ 200-foot game and attention to detail offered badly needed relief. He played 11:22 at even strength (7-3 shots), 1:42 on the power play (2-0 goals) and 4:37 clean minutes (no goals allowed) on the penalty kill. Smart passing, great edges, calm feet defensively and nice finish on his goal served as a strong reminder of his value.

Nugent-Hopkins has been an important part of the Oilers since arriving in the fall of 2011. He has played centre and wing, shuffled from the top line to the third line, and delivered in all areas of the game.

In the last couple of seasons, Nugent-Hopkins has struggled at five-on-five outscoring when playing away from Connor McDavid. Those minutes are spent at centre, and the results have gone below 50 percent in goal share. It’s a concern, and getting those five-on-five scoring numbers over 50 percent will be a key for Nugent-Hopkins and coach Kris Knoblauch.

Tale of the tape

From the fall of 2021 through the spring of 2024, the Oilers often used Nugent-Hopkins as a centre. The results (the numbers below are away from McDavid and Leon Draisaitl) were good, as the team played opponents at around 50 percent in those minutes. In 2024-25, those numbers headed the wrong way:

YearMinsGoal PctX-Goal Pct

2021-22

473

50

45

2022-23

498

53

47

2023-24

404

49

55

2024-25

538

45

51

2025-26

106

0 (0-6 goals)

50

All numbers at five-on-five, via Natural Stat Trick

The Oilers used Nugent-Hopkins in the No. 3 centre role more often, with lesser results, in 2024-25. This season began with six goals against and none for Edmonton. The challenge for Nugent-Hopkins is to turn back time. Based on Saturday’s wingers (Henrique and Janmark), it’s going to be a trio of elders on the No. 3 line.

Past linemates

When Nugent-Hopkins was delivering strong results two and three years ago, his linemates fit into two categories. First, the veteran group, most with limited goal-scoring skills but considered reliable defensively. Second, young wingers with promise, like Warren Foegele and Klim Kostin.

None, save perhaps Foegele, were given extended looks on one of the top two lines during those years.

A brand new plan

If it were only a matter of Nugent-Hopkins’ production at five-on-five, Knoblauch would move him to left wing on the McDavid line. Since 2023-24, the duo has scored 3.48 goals per 60 (Nugent-Hopkins is 2.11 without the captain) with a handsome 57 percent goal share (46 percent without McDavid).

That option is always available, but the organization appears to be committed to playing rookie Matt Savoie on the top line. The experiment isn’t delivering so far (47 percent goal share at five-on-five), but the team is investing in a talented young player in an attempt to spread the offence out over three lines. Savoie is posting solid if unspectacular offensive numbers with McDavid (1.66 points per 60 in 109 five-on-five minutes), with Knoblauch waiting for Savoie to find his offensive game on the feature line.

As is always the case with Knoblauch, the Savoie experiment on the McDavid line could end at any moment, clearing the way for Nugent-Hopkins to slide in on the McDavid trio.

Skill erosion

It’s worth looking at Nugent-Hopkins’ numbers to see what he continues to bring and what he’s losing as time marches on. The first item is a mild surprise, as NHL Edge has his max skating speed in the 86th percentile. That’s the best showing of his career during the NHL Edge tracking era. He remains a power-play wizard, this season boasting 12.38 points per 60 (in a small sample).

Nugent-Hopkins is challenged as a five-on-five scorer. He has reached 2.00 points per 60 only two times in his career. This season’s total (1.61 points per 60) is up from 1.24 one year ago. He’s a complementary offensive player at five-on-five. His strength in this area is outscoring. Nugent-Hopkins delivered a 54 percent goal share between 2021-22 and 2024-25 for Edmonton.

Finally, the penalty kill. Beginning in his third season in the NHL, Nugent-Hopkins took on a major role when the team was short-handed. He remains a key part of the PK these years later.

Wild game

The Oilers practised on Monday with Nugent-Hopkins in the middle and Henrique and Janmark on the wings. Knoblauch kept the unit together for Tuesday’s game. The line played well in a 1-0 loss to the Minnesota Wild, outshooting the visitors 4-1 in 5:52 together. Individually, Nugent-Hopkins had three shots on goal, while Henrique matched him and posted two high-danger scoring chances.

Edmonton lost the game 1-0, but the McDavid line with Savoie had three high-danger chances, coming close. The third line, with Nugent-Hopkins, Henrique and Janmark, has played 15 minutes together at five-on-five over the last two games. The trio outshot opponents 8-4 in those contests, but could not cash.

The ask from the coaching staff of Nugent-Hopkins is a big one. His career has been highly successful in suppressing five-on-five goals against, but he doesn’t push the river offensively. If Nugent-Hopkins is the top offensive player on his line at five-on-five, the line will be shy in scoring goals.

If Savoie’s goal drought continues, there’s a chance Nugent-Hopkins will return to the No. 1 line with McDavid and Hyman. The ideal solution is keeping the veteran in the middle, on the third line, and outscoring opposition at five-on-five. The unusual increase in foot speed, added to the last two games from a third line populated by veterans whose best offensive seasons are behind them, suggests that Knoblauch should stay the course. It’s the most important role Nugent-Hopkins can play.