One of the favourite quotes of Oil Country is a saying that Oilers hockey great Craig MacTavish, a former coach and GM of the team, liked to bust out: “The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again, and expecting a different result.”
We’re a third of the way through the NHL season. This definition applies to Edmonton Oilers as they now stand. This is a team going nowhere fast, in no small part due to a long run of rancid defensive play, but also because it’s been just OK with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl on the ice at even strength but horrible without one of the two.
With either McDavid and/or Draisaitl on the ice in 725 even strength minutes, the Oilers have scored 37 goals and given up 34, reports Natural Stat Trick.
Not great, not bad, OK.
But without either McDavid and/or Draisaitl on the ice in 636 five-on-five minutes, the Oilers have scored 13 goals and given up 33.
Little wonder caoch Kris Knoblauch is so partial to having McDavid and/or Draisaitl on the ice. But this isn’t a formula for winning big. The team is desperate for more depth scoring.
The Oilers are giving up about the same number rate of goals against no matter which forwards are on the ice — no surprise as both McDavid and Draisaitl have been iffy on defence this year — but their scoring has fallen into dark and murky depths of the Marianas Trench without one of the Glimmer Twins to conduct the orchestra, to push the river, to crack the whip, whatever turn of phrase you prefer.
It’s a dark place without one of one of those superstars. No sunlight. Few goal lights.
In more than 10 full games of hockey without them on the ice, the team has just 13 goals, less than 1.3 goals per game.
That’s just awful.
But what if Edmonton could quickly rectify that? What if there were an obvious cure?
Let me pose one possible solution. Edmonton’s farm team is bursting with young scoring talent. Why not call up one or two of those top young scorers from the AHL and have them replace players in the roster who aren’t scoring?
The need to do something is all the greater just now without Jack Roslovic in the line-up, Roslovic being one of the few players on the roster with the offensive skill and confidence to create on the attack away from McDavid or Draisaitl.
Here are the top three options for call-ups from Bakersfield:
* Quinn Hutson, who will be 24 in January. Hutson is deft with the puck, brilliant with it really, and he’s been on a tear in the AHL, 19 points in 18 games. He’s not a physical winger, but he’s a smart player who can defend. He’s a great candidate to try out in the Top 6 on the wing of either McDavid or Draisaitl. I’d call him up today.
* Ike Howard. Howard showed flashes of attacking excellence in Edmonton, even as he got little ice time and not much opportunity with McDavid and/or Draisaitl, just 27 minutes 5-on-5. He’s got a quick and heavy shot. He’s put up seven points in five AHL games.
I know that you don’t want to have a young player up and down from the farm to the NHL and back on a yo-yo, so I’d likely recall Hutson before Howard, but Howard should also be in consideration. I note Howard was solid enough on defend when he was in Edmonton and there are credible reports he’s done the same in Bakersfield.
* Roby Javentie. After missing almos two full seasons due to knee injury, the big Finnish kid with speed and a shot on the attack has eight goals and 13 points in 14 games for Bako. He’s also 23, so ready for NHL duty.
Who should get bumped down or out of Oilers line-up?
How about the Oilers reconsider some forwards who a) aren’t scoring and b) aren’t coming close to scoring?
Shots 27 games
Matt Savoie has done OK in his try-out with McDavid, but he’s not put up much in the way of points. He’s got just three goals in 27 games. That’s not good enough to hand in there in the Top 9, especially as he’s been just OK on defence and he;’s been unable to muster many Grade A shots, just 0.6 per game, despite having now played 135 minutes with McDavid and/or Draisaitl so far this year.
Trent Frederic. He’s struggling to defend and he’s not close to scoring, which is why he’s now on the fourth line. A few games in the pressbox would do him well.
Andrew Mangiapane has done OK as a two-way player (he’s a good positional defensive player) but he’s failed to nail down a Top 6 spot. He’s got four goals and is averaging 0.9 Grade A shots per game, which are OK-ish, but not so much for a winger who has had 340 5-on-5 minutes with McDavid and/or Draisaitl. He’s not been nearly effective enough on the attack in a Top 6 role.
What might some new lines be?
Hutson McDavid Hyman
RNH Draisaitl Podkolzin
Mangianpane Henrique Howard
Clattenburg Janmark Savoie
Pressbox or AHL: Frederic, Lazar, Tomasek
Make sense to you? What might work better? I’m open to all suggestions given the current poor state of the third and fourth lines.
P.S. Here were the Oilers lines at practice today, as reported by Bob Stauffer of Oilers Now:
RNH-McDavid-Hyman
Podkolzin-Draisaitl-Savoie
Janmark-Henrique-Mangiapane
Clattenburg-Lazar-Frederic
Tomasek
Ekholm-Bouchard
Nurse-Regula
Kulak-Emberson
Skinner
Pickard
Grade A 27 games
At the Cult of Hockey
STAPLES: Major Edmonton Oilers signing not scoring, not close to scoring. Time to sit him