After a miraculous turnaround that led the Nashville Predators to the Stanley Cup Playoffs in 2024, the team “won” the offseason with splashy free-agent additions.
And then the 2024-25 season started, and the Predators fell to the bottom of the standings — 30th, to be exact, with a .415 win percentage. While the Preds have gained some traction lately with four wins in their last five games, it has generally been more of the same in Nashville. As much parity as there is around the NHL, the Predators sit in 30th place, with a .444win percentage, and are projected to finish low again. So it’s time for management to take a proactive approach and start making tough decisions to better prepare for the future.
The Predators’ current situation has landed players on Chris Johnston’s trade board, most notably, Steven Stamkos and Ryan O’Reilly.
The two veterans aren’t built for a retool or rebuilding situation; they are potential additions for a team with playoff aspirations. Whenever a player goes from a bottom-feeder to a contender, the assumption is that the change in environment alone is enough to get them back on track. But there is never a guarantee of a glow up — especially when it looks like players just don’t have that much left in the tank. So that’s the question for every interested team to consider: What do Stamkos and O’Reilly still have to offer, and can those skill sets thrive away from Nashville?
When the Predators signed 34-year-old Stamkos in 2024, he arguably wasn’t an $8 million player anymore. But his decline over the last two years in Nashville has been sharper than expected.
Stamkos went from scoring at a pace of 3.37 points per 60 in his last season in Tampa Bay in 2023-24 to just 2.11 in all situations last year. So far this season, his rate dropped even lower to 1.41 points per 60.
There were signs that his game was already trending in the wrong direction at five-on-five when he left Tampa Bay. In 2022-23, he was on the ice for a career-high 2.80 expected goals against per 60. It didn’t fall squarely on his shoulders, and Stamkos, at least, helped outweigh those lapses with his scoring chances. That just wasn’t the case a year later; his defensive metrics slipped, and his offensive impact wasn’t strong enough to keep him above the break-even mark in xG and scoring for the first time since his rookie season in 2008-09.
Still, even with some growing weaknesses in his game, Stamkos still had the chops to be an offensive threat in 2024, as long as a team could insulate him. It just hasn’t been the case in Nashville.
At this point, Stamkos needs a couple of things to thrive: An ace playmaker to set up his dangerous shot and defensive support. In Year 1, the Predators failed to match him with complementary talents. Problem No. 1 was that he was often deployed as a center between Filip Forsberg and Jonathan Marchessault, leaving him exposed in his own zone. His puck-touches were risky, and his attempts to retrieve pucks and breakouts were often mistake-riddled. Problem No. 2 is that neither winger’s playmaking was strong enough, either. Forsberg is a shoot-first offensive threat, but has a strong profile in transition to make up for Stamkos’ lack of puck-movement. Marchessault’s passing and rush-based attack declined in his last year in Vegas, and that carried to Nashville.
So the task this year is to prove that last year was more of a blip, based on his surroundings, and not his new normal.
On the surface, it’s easy to get discouraged by his production across 26 games. A 52 percent xG rate is promising, but the fact that there’s a gap between expectations (2.61 per 60) and reality (1.49 goals per 60) in his five-on-five minutes does raise a red flag. Stamkos’ shot volume (and quality) is down relative to his last few years in Tampa Bay, and he is only converting on 8.3 percent of his chances, which is below average.
But there are signs that his usage was a key contributor to his struggles.
Shifting Stamkos back to the wing was the first solution, and it seems to be limiting some of the defensive damage from last season. But at this point, the Predators had to take that a step further — by pairing him up with a responsible center in O’Reilly. In 97 minutes of shared ice at five-on-five, that duo has a 60 percent xG rate and has outscored opponents 6-4. Adding Luke Evangelista to his wing, who excels at generating scoring chances in transition, has also been good for Stamkos. So has the return of Roman Josi, which has added another puck-moving presence.
That’s miles better than his time spent with Erik Haula a few weeks ago; in their 132 minutes together earlier this season, Nashville only had a sub-46 percent xG rate and was outscored 6-0.
Even with some recent five-on-five upticks, Stamkos hasn’t been effective enough on the power play — and that’s one element of his game that should age better (according to work done by now-general manager of the Hurricanes, Eric Tulsky). And that could be the sign that he’s cooked at this point.
Stamkos’ signature shot from the left circle can be a threat if he’s fed passes. It’s something he retained through all of the struggles last year, with 3.02 goals per 60; that’s a little below his career-average, but a reasonable step down with all things considered. This year, he has only scored 1.44 goals per 60 on the advantage.
The shot is still dangerous, but he just isn’t generating as many chances. He has only attempted 22.3 shots per 60, when he tends to create upward of 30 most seasons. It could come down to his teammates not setting him up often enough.
So while expectations have to be reasonable at this point in his career, there are some signs that Stamkos has more offensive power left in the tank. It all comes down to whether a team can maximize his game, and there are only a handful of ideal situations out there for him.
The problem is that teams wouldn’t just be betting on it for the rest of the year; he still has two seasons left with an $8 million AAV and a no-movement clause to navigate. Even in a growing cap world, it’s a risky contract to take on. And Nashville only has one retention space to work with. And that’s what complicates this situation: It’s about projecting whether the former Lightning icon can rebound this year and hold that value until he’s 38.
The O’Reilly situation isn’t as tricky for a few reasons: His scoring hasn’t plummeted, his style and role are entirely different, and his contract situation is much easier to navigate.
Through 27 games, O’Reilly has scored at a rate of 2.38 points per 60, slightly above his career-average pace. While his shot volume is down, the quality has been up in all three seasons in Nashville, thanks to his ability to drive right to the slot. So has his impact on the Predators’ five-on-five goal scoring, after some bad luck in those last couple of seasons in St. Louis.
The scoring is just one piece of the puzzle for O’Reilly. His game doesn’t center around the big flashy moments, like Stamkos — it’s about the little things that add up. And those little things are pivotal in the shutdown minutes he is generally tasked with playing.
That has been the role in Nashville, but it may not be on a contender, depending on where he lands. O’Reilly may be better suited to share the burden rather than being counted on as The Shutdown Threat. While his environment is obviously a consideration here, one potential red flag is how much his expected goals against have ticked up over the last couple of years (even relative to his teammates).
But how he profiles in the defensive zone, according to All Three Zones, is still encouraging. O’Reilly can still be counted on for steady defensive zone puck touches. He wins puck battles, retrieves pucks in his own end and helps his team break out with control.
O’Reilly blocks shots and closes passing lanes, and can help intercept the puck in both the defensive and neutral zones.
And in the offensive zone, he can put the work in around the boards to help keep his team in control, and then drive to the middle of the ice.
Sometimes, it’s easier to estimate how that kind of skill set will translate elsewhere versus Stamkos’ — and the fact that O’Reilly has been a deadline addition before only helps. But with a plus-3.1 Net Rating, his game doesn’t really scream 1C material anymore, and it hasn’t for some time. The Predators over-leveraged him due to roster constraints.
Instead, O’Reilly is a better fit for a team’s middle six. A 3C role would be ideal, but there could be some playoff-caliber teams that view him as a second-line option, similar to his time in Toronto in 2023, if he can be paired with the right high-end linemates.
The risk of moving him down the lineup, however, is limiting the kind of offensive support he would have on his wings — and that could influence what he brings to a new team on the scoresheet. While his all-around game and experience of glowing up on a contender limit the risk of this becoming a Scott Laughton 2.0 situation, teams still have to be careful here, considering how much the Predators will likely ask for.
All-around utility centers such as O’Reilly tend to move at a premium in-season. His $4.5 million AAV for another season (giving acquiring teams two playoff runs) only smooths the path for it. A lot of interest around the league could drive up the cost even more, since there should be a handful of teams in the market. The Devils could use help at center, even after Jack Hughes returns from injury, so Dawson Mercer can shift back to wing. The Red Wings could use more help at the faceoff dot, especially on the penalty kill. Montreal could be in the market for a veteran to play a defensive role behind Nick Suzuki, especially with left-handed center Alex Newhook sidelined. The Panthers could want more help at center to take some of the burden off Sam Bennett with Aleksander Barkov sidelined. Columbus could make sense here, too, among others.
Whenever a struggling team is open for business, the challenge is isolating what players can do away from a disappointing environment. That’s the challenge for any interested parties in Stamkos and O’Reilly from Nashville. While neither situation is ideal (from a contract or cost of acquisition standpoint), there is still skill worth investing in.
— Player data collected prior to Thursday’s matchup via Evolving-Hockey, HockeyViz, HockeyStatCards, All Three Zones and Natural Stat Trick. This story relies on shot-based metrics; here is a primer on these numbers.