Today is the first anniversary of Buffalo Sabres general manager Kevyn Adams’ making his now-infamous remarks about palm trees and taxes. That day, Adams was defensive in the face of questions about the state of the franchise during his fifth season on the job.
A year later, not much has changed. Adams is in his sixth season on the job, but the Sabres haven’t taken the necessary step toward becoming a playoff team. After a 4-1 loss to the Jets in Winnipeg on Friday night, the Sabres are 11-13-4 through 28 games. Through 28 games last season, the Sabres had an identical 11-13-4 record. The only difference is that this season, that record is good for last place in the Eastern Conference with a .464 points percentage.
Sure, the reasons for the record might be slightly different. This season, the 2-8-2 road record isn’t helping matters. The team’s last regulation win on the road was a 5-2 win in Ottawa on April 1. This season, the Sabres are 31st in the league in goals per game on the road and 32nd in the league in goals against per game on the road.
Injuries have played a role this season, too. But injuries have been rampant around the league, and the Sabres are starting to get healthier.
The reality is, until they prove otherwise, this is just who the Sabres are. They’ve dazzled in some games this season, including as recently as Monday in a 5-1 win over the Winnipeg Jets. But every inspiring stretch of play seems to be matched by a predictable regression. They haven’t won three games in a row all season and have spent just five days above a .500 points percentage.
The Sabres have the sixth-most five-on-five goals in the NHL this season and the eighth-most five-on-five high-danger chances. They’ve also allowed the second-most goals in the NHL at five-on-five. They have the top-ranked penalty kill in the league but the 20th-ranked power play. There are obviously talented players scattered throughout this roster. And it’s a deeper team than it was last year. But the sum of the parts has been an inconsistent and mistake-prone hockey team.
Right now, the team’s biggest issue might be goaltending. According to Money Puck, no team in the NHL has a higher goals against above expected at five-on-five than the Sabres. Based on Money Puck’s model, all three of the Sabres’ goalies rank 50th or worse in goals saved above expected among the 80 goalies who have played a game in the NHL this season. On Friday, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen stopped just 19 of the 22 shots he faced. The fact the Sabres still have three goalies on the roster has prevented any of the three from finding a consistent rhythm.
Adams is still the general manager, so it’s on him to make a decision that would relieve the three-goalie logjam and give the Sabres some needed roster flexibility. The team has just six defensemen on the active roster, while it is more than 2,000 miles away from home, preparing for a game in Calgary on Monday.
To this point, Adams hasn’t made the difficult decisions necessary to navigate Buffalo’s early-season issues. But that would only matter if the Sabres could get more consistency out of their best players. After a six-game goal streak, Tage Thompson, who is back playing on the wing, hasn’t scored and has just 1 point in his last six games. Alex Tuch leads the team with 24 points but has made too many careless errors with the puck in recent games, including a turnover at the offensive blue line that led to Winnipeg’s game-winning goal in the second period Friday.
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Lindy Ruff acknowledged the team needs more out of its top guys and that it might be time to shuffle the lines. The only in-game change Ruff made to the forward group was swapping centers Noah Ostlund and Ryan McLeod on the second and third lines. If Ruff is reimagining the forward group, he should start by putting Thompson back at center.
And the blue line needs work, too. Owen Power has gone 11 straight games without a point. Bowen Byram, meanwhile, led the Sabres in five-on-five ice time Friday but was on the ice for two more goals against. He has been on the ice for 31 goals against at five-on-five this season, most in the NHL (Morgan Rielly is at 30, Conor Timmins at 29, Mackenzie Weegar, Tyler Myers, Cam Fowler at 28). It doesn’t help that the Sabres’ goalies have a save percentage of .868 during Byram’s five-on-five minutes, but he has a big hand in that number, too.
That’s too many issues to have with too many high-priced players. That’s why the Sabres have struggled to gain traction this season. The Eastern Conference is as wide open as it has been in years, but the Sabres are already in danger of playing themselves out of the race. They’re 7 points out of a wild-card spot and 5 points out of third place in the division. But they’re also playing at a 76-point pace.
Adams has said the only way to quiet the criticism around this team is to win games. But right now, this team is just spinning its tires the same way it was a year ago under his watch.