By Sean Gentille, Jesse Granger, Shayna Goldman, James Mirtle, Mark Lazerus and The Athletic NHL Staff
We’ve passed the quarter-mark of the NHL’s regular season, which typically means we have a better idea of what most teams are.
That’s the case for a few select teams, such as the Colorado Avalanche, who have run away from the pack at warp speed. For the most part, though, there’s still a lot up in the air in a league showing more parity than perhaps ever before. In the East, the first-place Washington Capitals are only a few points ahead of teams currently outside of playoff position. Even further, those teams are only a few points ahead of last place.
With so much still sorting itself out, it’s a good time to check in with The Athletic’s NHL staff. This week, we polled staffers on everything from their current favorite to win it all to playoff picks, awards candidates and which coach could be on the hot seat. Here’s how the predictions have evolved, with expert analysis and critique from senior writers James Mirtle, Mark Lazerus and Sean Gentille, analytics know-it-all Shayna Goldman and goaltending expert Jesse Granger.
Goldman: It’s the boring answer, but the Avs are just a tier above the rest. Everyone else is just so mid right now, so Colorado feels like the only real answer. Could they flame out similarly to the 2023 Boston Bruins? It’s always possible! But I like this team’s chances of going on a real run.
Lazerus: The Avs have a plus-47 goal differential. That’s more than twice as high as any other team in the league save Washington, and that’s only because the Caps have played more games. What Colorado is doing now is ludicrous. It also will mean absolutely nothing when the playoffs begin.
Granger: The Avalanche won the Cup in 2022 with slightly above-average goaltending. If they continue to get the elite level they’ve gotten from the Colorado Lumber Yard (Mackenzie Blackwood and Scott Wedgewood), it’s hard to see anyone else winning it.
Mirtle: I admire whoever looked at the Oilers’ start and saw the makings of a champion.
Goldman: Is this the year the Canes finally make an impact in the Eastern Conference final? I’m still leaning with the Lightning, who have turned things around despite key injuries.
Lazerus: If I’m Colorado or Dallas, there’s no team in the Eastern Conference that genuinely scares me. Their first-round foes might put up a better fight than their fourth-round foes.
Mirtle: Definitely the Leastern Conference this year. The best hope for these teams might be that the West is such a war that the top teams will be limping by the finals. With how badly Frederik Andersen has struggled, it’s looking like the Canes may have to finally invest in more help in goal.
Granger: The Devils have fallen into quite a slump lately without Jack Hughes, but I still love the ceiling on that team if they can somehow manage to be healthy at the right time. Jacob Markström and Jake Allen are a strong tandem, and it feels like some pucks are due to find the net for a New Jersey offense that is better than its current numbers show.
Lazerus: It’s nice to see teams other than San Jose or Chicago on this list.
Mirtle: Bringing Gavin McKenna in right before the new building opens would be some welcome good news for the Flames, who feel like they’ve been bouncing around the mushy middle since they won the Cup a million years ago.
Granger: Someone save Juuse Saros.
Goldman: It’s amazing how much NHL talent there is in Nashville and their odds are still this bleak.
Goldman: Wait, is something wrong with the Maple Leafs? I feel like I haven’t heard about this at all this season.
Lazerus: Woe, Canada.
Mirtle: Hey, Toronto is back, didn’t you hear? The Leafs just went 4-1-0 on a road trip through some tough markets and are now two points back of a playoff spot. Just ignore the latest injury news …
Granger: The Oilers are currently dead last in PDO (0.964). That, combined with their recent history of early-season struggles only to turn into a powerhouse, suggests a turnaround is coming. Toronto, however, currently has the fourth-highest PDO behind only Dallas, Colorado, Washington and Tampa Bay. So this is what the Leafs look like when they’re running hot?
Lazerus: In our preseason staff predictions, we all laughed at the idea that the Panthers were a “dark horse.” Even after a middling start to the season, I’m still not ready to pick against them to not only make the playoffs, but make a run.
Mirtle: The Panthers sure look awful lately, though. I know they’re really beat up, but back-to-back ugly losses to Toronto and Nashville are a good reflection of where they’re at. Ottawa, meanwhile, has beaten some decent teams lately and could surprise, especially if it makes a big addition at some point.
Granger: Honestly, there are a lot of good teams in this group. I threw a vote on Minnesota to shine some light on the hottest goalie in the NHL, with one of the best nicknames in a long time: The Wall of St. Paul, Jesper Wallstedt.
Goldman: Seconding the Wild as the pick here for regular-season purposes. Once you start thinking about the playoffs and their likely path through the Central, the Capitals look like an even stronger choice here.
Lazerus: I don’t know how the Ducks’ freewheeling style will play in the playoffs, but I’m pretty confident we’ll get to find out. Such a fun team to watch. Defense is overrated.
Granger: You’re right that the Ducks have a long way to go defensively to get to playoff-style hockey, but with the puck, I feel like they’re well on their way. This team isn’t just a fast, skilled group that relies solely on finesse to score. Leo Carlsson and Mason McTavish are already monsters along the boards, and few go to the net as effectively as Chris Kreider.
Mirtle: I threw that vote the Islanders’ way. Anaheim’s the best choice, but with how Matthew Schaefer is playing, I could see the Isles getting through in the Metro here.
Goldman: The Ducks’ start and placement in the most mid division helps a lot. I like the idea of the Islanders based solely on how the team is playing, but I think management is going to stick to the retool process and set this team up for a legitimate run next year.
Goldman: I mean, how many times are we going to poll and have the same result? I understand if Barry Trotz, a longtime coach, isn’t jumping to throw Brunette under the bus, but … something has to give in Nashville.
Lazerus: So 48.6 percent of us picked Brunette at the start of the season. I want to know who changed their vote away from Brunette after another scintillating start in Nashville.
Mirtle: Craig Berube’s seat was warming up, but I think this recent run means he isn’t going anywhere in the next couple of months. Take: This might be the rare year we don’t get a lot of in-season firings.
Granger: You could be right, if only because most of the coaches haven’t held their positions long enough for judgment.
Lazerus: I just want to give everyone in Buffalo a big hug. (And eat a beef-on-weck while I’m there.)
Goldman: Second that — especially because the Sabres actually look good since Rasmus Dahlin returned to the team. They just don’t have the track record to lean on like the Panthers, and honestly, even Montreal after last year’s turnaround.
Mirtle: What a pileup for the last two spots. The East is definitely coming down to the final weekend of the season, and I could see it taking far more points than last year to get in.
Granger: It feels odd for only one team not to receive a vote, but not when you look at the standings.
Gentille: If the Oilers pull it together, it’ll be because I picked them to miss the playoffs. You’re welcome, Edmonton!
Lazerus: The West might be a lot better than the East, but it’s a heck of a lot less interesting — unless Spencer Knight and Connor Bedard say otherwise.
Mirtle: Basically, the opposite of the East. I do think Winnipeg is really vulnerable with the way the Jets are playing right now, though; could a surprise team such as Chicago or San Jose actually make things interesting or will their youthful push so far fade by March?
Granger: I really like what the Mammoth are doing and want to pick them, but Connor Hellebuyck is already back on the ice, and I just believe in Winnipeg’s track record a bit more at this very moment.
Goldman: I’m going opposite here and giving the Mammoth the slight edge over the Jets. There are just a few too many concerning trends in Winnipeg, and while I could see Hellebuyck covering them up again, it could come down to which team is willing to make a deadline splash — and that’s where Utah could gain some ground.
Gentille: The only two players to receive votes here play for the Avs. Seems like good news for them.
Goldman: At this rate, I think the ballot ends up with Jason Robertson plus someone who helps lead the charge on a surprise playoff team. But it’s MacKinnon’s award to lose.
Lazerus: Is there any chance Bedard or Macklin Celebrini can pull a 2018 Taylor Hall and win by singlehandedly dragging their team into the playoffs? Probably not, but that might be the only way anyone truly threatens MacKinnon. It’s wild to say, but Connor McDavid isn’t the best player in the world anymore. Most talented? For sure. Best? That’s Nate.
Mirtle: I’m starting to wonder if MacKinnon can threaten 150 points with the way he’s playing. It might be a challenge to have five worthy nominees to vote for this year.
Gentille: This is Morgan Geekie erasure, and I simply will not stand for it.
Guess who?! 💪
Morgan Geekie scores his 21st goal in his 29th game! pic.twitter.com/0sxHYNbDf9
— NHL (@NHL) December 5, 2025
Goldman: With all the injuries in Dallas, and the way Robertson’s cooking lately … maybe he can shake up the trophy picture a bit. His individual xG rate also ranks in the top 10, and that’s promising for scoring sustainability.
Lazerus: Robertson is my dark horse here, too. He’s finally becoming the player we all expected him to become a few years ago. An absolute beast.
Granger: Conversely, Kirill Kaprizov is actually outperforming his xG rate quite a bit. That suggests regression is coming, but he’s the type of player, with the type of shot, who I believe will just continue out-producing that metric.
Mirtle: I think Bedard has a real shot here, but he’s probably got to start getting more pucks on net. MacKinnon is 25 SOG ahead of him already, which gives him a big advantage, given they’re likely not shooting 20 percent all year.
Gentille: Didn’t know Josh Morrissey’s brother-in-law was on staff here. Neat.
Mirtle: *looks at Murat*
Lazerus: Makar is the kid who could already do derivatives and integrals in seventh grade, wrecking the curve for everyone else.
Goldman: The race for second and third place, at least, could be somewhat interesting behind Makar.
Gentille: Aleksander Barkov is out, and Nick Suzuki is a high-end producer who’s top-five among centers in Defensive Rating. Seems easy enough.
Lazerus: I can’t remember the last time the Selke felt genuinely up for grabs. No Patrice Bergeron, no Barkov, no clue what’s going to happen. I think this ends up being Mitch Marner’s year, though it’s tougher to get noticed for your two-way play in Vegas than it is in Toronto (or Montreal, for that matter).
Mirtle: Suzuki has leveled up even from his terrific season a year ago. I went with Nico Hischier, who’s been a bit overlooked in this depth given the competition and with Jack Hughes out, but Suzuki has arrived as a superstar. (I didn’t know Michael Amadio’s brother-in-law was on staff here.)
Goldman: Suzuki has my vote for now because he legitimately feels like the true total package in this field. Whether guys such as Mikael Backlund or Marner get votes may come down to how you define the criteria and how much matchup minutes matter.
Gentille: I’m betting on Logan Thompson to land the plane after an incredible start, which he couldn’t quite manage last season. Not many goalies on contenders are more important to their team’s whole deal. He’s got Andrei Vasilevskiy beat, albeit narrowly, in save percentage and goals saved above expected.
Goldman: Jeremy Swayman would be my pick today, but I won’t be surprised if general managers look elsewhere depending on where the Bruins finish in the standings (right or wrong, it just always plays a factor).
Lazerus: Don’t sleep on Yaroslav Askarov. What he did in November behind a truly putrid San Jose defense was pretty spectacular. It’d be nice to see this go to a guy on a bad team for a change. I’m no Jesse Granger, but I’ve got to think it’s a heck of a lot easier to play goalie behind a good team than a bad one.
Mirtle: Dark horse for me could be Ilya Sorokin, who’s back to showing why he landed that contract. But this is probably a pretty wide-open field, given Hellebuyck’s injury.
Granger: Swayman, Knight and Askarov have been the three best goalies in the NHL to this point, but maintaining Vezina-caliber numbers behind the defenses they’re playing behind is a lot to ask. If one of them somehow manages, they should be the easy vote. I think it’s more likely Vasilevskiy or Thompson will eventually outpace them behind a stronger team.
Gentille: Joel Quenneville might already have this one wrapped up. The fit always made as much on-ice sense as possible, and the results there are undeniable.
Goldman: Jared Bednar and Jon Cooper are somehow going to finish their respective tenures without a Jack Adams. I’m keeping an eye on Nico Sturm and even Dan Muse, if the Bruins and Penguins stay in the playoff race.
Lazerus: You have to give Quenneville credit. In the past, a team as defensively disastrous as Anaheim would have driven him to madness. They give up high-danger chances seemingly every other shift. But he’s letting his skilled young team play to its strengths, and trying to win every game 6-5. Is it sustainable? Who knows? Is it fun? Absolutely.
Mirtle: It would be nice for the coach of the league’s top team to get it a little more often … and Cooper not having one yet is just goofy.
Gentille: I want nothing but the best for Matthew Schaefer, who’s spent the last two months doing things that should be impossible for an 18-year-old defenseman, and I voted for him here. Still, remember two things: Ivan Demidov was once a landslide pick, and Wallstedt just won rookie of the month.
Goldman: Yep, Schaefer is still my slam-dunk pick … but I can’t see Demidov finishing outside the top-three. It would be fun if we saw a ballot with a player at each position for the second straight year.
Lazerus: Schaefer rules, and he should and will win this. But either Askarov or Wallstedt would be well ahead of the field in almost any other year.
Granger: If Wallstedt never allows another goal, he could beat Schaefer out. At this point, that doesn’t feel impossible.
Mirtle: Calder this year, Norris contention next (and for a decade after). The Isles rebuild sure didn’t last long.