Welcome back to another NHL Predictions. Each day, our writers here at Last Word On Hockey look at the games and give in-depth analysis. Our team breaks down the key matchups, storylines, and stats, then makes predictions based on how they might play out. For this edition, we will look at the Tampa Bay Lightning taking on the New York Islanders. Don’t forget to check out more NHL Predictions, as our writers continue this series throughout the 2025–26 season.

NHL Predictions Overview

Time: 7:00 p.m. Eastern Standard Time (EST)

How to Watch: The Spot, MSGSN

Location: Benchmark International Arena, Tampa, FL

2025–26 Season Series: Tampa Bay 0, New York 1

The Bolts (16-9-2) host the New York Islanders (15-10-3) in a rematch from last week that promises to be a clash between firepower and structural stubbornness. Tampa is fresh off a 4-3 loss to Pittsburgh. The Penguins’ top-ranked power play scored twice to help the Penguins build a 3-0 lead. Kucherov put Tampa Bay on the scoresheet in the second period and Hagel slashed the deficit to one in the third, but Pittsburgh’s Evgeni Malkin scored the winning goal off a one-timer. The Islanders stomped the Colorado Avalanche 6-3 on Wednesday and are feeling mighty, but not like Ducks.

Tampa Bay Lightning Outlook

Just like that, after a seven-game win streak, the Lightning are riding a two-game losing streak. Though they now sit at the top of the Atlantic Division, Boston is on their heels, two points back. With all their veteran experience and firepower, their 3.26 goals per game and their 16.3% power play (23rd in the league) are nothing to plaster across billboards. Even if Tampa’s offence gets buzzing, the Islanders are not the kind of team that gives you clean looks in the slot. Tampa’s defensive structure (2.63 goals-per-game/sixth in the league) will need to stay tuned. New York thrives on turning low-event hockey into “how did they score that” goals, that suddenly become high-stress situations as the seconds tick away late in the third.

Keys to Victory – Tampa Bay

NHL Predictions thinks Tampa needs to drink a few Red Bulls during the National Anthem. They were down 3-0 against the Pens before someone told them the game had started. The prior game was a 2-1 loss to these Islanders, where a late goal by Dominic James kept the Bolts from being shut out. Wake up sooner. Jake Guentzel just signed a three-year extension, so now let him prove the check was worth clearing. Kucherov leads the Bolts with 22 Assists, so he needs to make Jake a happy signee. Jonas Johansson took the loss against the Pens with Andrei Vasilevskiy Day-to-Day after his 2-1 Islanders loss. Either man will need to keep the lanes clear as they contribute to the start of the next seven-game win streak.

New York Islanders Outlook

The Islanders are a franchise built around stubborn structure, steady goaltending, and the top pick in the draft last year. Matthew Schaefer has not disappointed so far. His 8 Goals and 12 Assists rank him third in team points. Mathew Barzal leads the charge, as wired as a squirrel on espresso, while Bo Horvat, Kyle Palmieri, and Anders Lee supply the meat-and-potatoes scoring. Their defence is rugged, and their goaltending is still the backbone of their operation. Ilya Sorokin has been spectacular at times but inconsistent. With this being their first of back-to-back games in Florida, expect the New Yorkers (and isn’t half of Florida inhabited by New Yorkers), to be ready for the Bolt’s revenge.

Keys to Victory – New York

NHL Predictions says the Islanders need to keep this game as ugly and slow as possible. Dump it. Chase it. Block shots like they’re trying to win a trophy for self-sacrifice. Pepper Vasilevskiy with screens, tips, deflections, create chaos in the crease and make the Big Cat’s life a little less comfortable. Offensively, ride Barzal’s speed and attack Tampa’s defence before it has time to get organized. Whatever they did to just miss getting a shutout the other night against the Bolts, correct it and “sweep the leg.” Who doesn’t love old ’80s movie references?

NHL Predictions: Who Takes the W?

This one screams “low-event chess match sprinkled with sudden chaos.” Tampa has the star power, firepower, and Vasilevskiy. The Islanders have structure, stubbornness, and a goalie who can steal games out of spite.

Prediction: Lightning 3, Islanders 2

Because the Bolts can’t fathom losing two games in five days to those BLANK-BLANK New Yorkers.

Prop Bets of the Night

Under 6.0 Total Goals (-115): The Islanders slow everything to a crawl, and Tampa will have to play their game.

Kucherov Anytime Point (-260): Betting against him is still like betting against Vegas losing money to you.

Final Thoughts

NHL Predictions like  Tampa establishing itself as a contender again, while the Islanders try to prove their disciplined, grind-heavy blueprint can still win in 2025.

Main Photo Credit: Dennis Schneidler-USA TODAY Sports

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