Game Preview: St. Louis Blues @ Ottawa Senators
The St. Louis Blues begin a back-to-back weekend road swing Saturday night in Ottawa, looking to halt a two-game skid after being outscored 9-3 across those losses. They meet an Ottawa Senators team that has dropped three of its last four yet showed encouraging signs in Thursday’s 4-2 defeat to the New York Rangers. Despite the loss, the Senators generated sustained pressure in the third period and came within inches of tying the game 6-on-5. Oddsmakers project Ottawa as a slight home favorite with a total trending toward mid-range scoring, given both teams’ recent defensive lapses. This matchup also serves as a tone-setter for St. Louis, which travels to Montreal next, and fits into the broader Saturday NHL slate previewed on the league’s matchup hub.
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Odds and Key Information
The Senators opened as modest favorites around the -135 range, with St. Louis returning plus money. The total sits in the 6–6.5 zone, reflecting St. Louis’ defensive struggles and Ottawa’s recent offensive pressure, especially late in games. Sharp bettors are watching injury updates closely since Ottawa is missing two key defensemen, Thomas Chabot and Artem Zub, and lost forward Shane Pinto early on Thursday. St. Louis, meanwhile, is without multiple forwards due to long-term injuries, including Jimmy Snuggerud and Nathan Walker. Market movement has so far been gradual, with no major shifts on the side or total. Both clubs enter with inconsistent form but capable scoring depth, contributing to balanced early pricing.
St. Louis Blues Outlook
The Blues’ last two games exposed structural issues in defensive coverage. Jim Montgomery cited poor reloads and gaps as the primary culprits, emphasizing that the fix lies in effort rather than systemic overhaul. St. Louis had previously earned points in six of seven games, but the breakdowns against Boston and Tampa Bay created high-danger chances that overwhelmed Jordan Binnington. He has allowed seven goals on 32 shots in his last two starts, though he notes he played well in the outings immediately prior. Binnington’s confidence is tied closely to the team’s ability to support him in front, particularly in managing slot entries and rebound clearing.
Offensively, the Blues must compensate for key injuries. Snuggerud’s wrist surgery, Toropchenko’s absence due to a domestic accident and Walker’s upper-body injury thin the forward group significantly. St. Louis still maintains a strong veteran core, highlighted by Colton Parayko’s two-way presence and the structured play expected from their top six, but generating sustained offensive zone time has become more difficult. Their matchup against Ottawa’s depleted blue line offers potential for improved cycle play if they can clean up defensive transition issues. For the latest personnel details, the Blues injury report outlines current absences and expected timelines.
Ottawa Senators Outlook
Ottawa’s 4-2 loss to the Rangers carried plenty of positives. Travis Green praised the team’s compete level, particularly in the final 20 minutes when they out-chanced New York and forced Igor Shesterkin into multiple high-quality saves. Drake Batherson’s third-period goal extended a strong stretch of play, while captain Brady Tkachuk has logged four points in four games since returning from injury. The Senators’ offensive push showcased improved zone entries and quicker puck movement, areas that had stalled earlier in the month.
However, the Senators remain shorthanded. Chabot and Zub are still out, weakening both puck-moving and defensive stability. Pinto’s injury further strains forward depth, requiring increased usage from younger players. Ottawa must replicate the structured, disciplined play shown late against the Rangers. Their transition game appears to be improving, and their forecheck showed signs of life, critical against a Blues squad vulnerable to turnovers in the neutral zone. Current updates on Ottawa’s roster can be found on the Senators injury report.
Key Matchup Table
Key FactorAdvantageDefensive StructureSenatorsGoaltending ConsistencySenatorsOffensive DepthBluesNeutral Zone EfficiencySenatorsForecheck PressureBlues
Betting Trends
St. Louis has dropped two straight and is struggling to maintain defensive shape, leading to both games clearing five goals against. The Blues’ recent contests trend toward overs when defensive breakdowns mount, though they were previously effective at suppressing scoring chances. Ottawa has lost three of four but is exhibiting late-game push and improved shooting quality. The Senators’ last few outings have leaned toward competitive scoring environments due to their injury-driven defensive instability. For bettors tracking line movement and totals across Saturday’s slate, the NHL odds page offers ongoing updates, while matchup analysis within the NHL previews section provides broader context for comparable games.
The Lean
This matchup hinges on which team reestablishes defensive structure first. The Senators, despite injuries, have shown stronger team shape and more consistent goaltending than the Blues over the past week. St. Louis can counter if its top forwards generate extended shifts in the offensive zone, especially given Ottawa’s thin blue line, but their recent lapses in backtracking and gap control make those sequences harder to sustain. Ottawa’s offensive core appears more cohesive at the moment, and Tkachuk’s return adds leadership and forechecking pressure that St. Louis may struggle to match.
Model projections lean slightly toward Ottawa on home ice, with an expected outcome landing near the posted total. Both teams are likely to score in bursts, making the over viable if defensive breakdowns persist. For additional betting frameworks that complement NHL matchup analysis.
Projected Final Score: Senators 4, Blues 3
Best Moneyline Pick: Senators ML
Total Lean: Over 6
Why You Need Expert Picks
Injury-heavy NHL matchups like Blues–Senators create volatile pricing, and expert handicappers specialize in identifying when public perception has moved lines too far in one direction. The Handicappers Leaderboard showcases top performers whose models integrate expected-goals rates, deployment changes and defensive-pairing shifts — all essential to this specific matchup. Experts evaluate factors such as Binnington’s recent form variance, Ottawa’s defensive absences and how depth-line matchups influence scoring probability. Leveraging expert projections can help bettors isolate edges in tight totals markets or small home-favorite spreads, especially in games where lineup fluidity drives uncertainty.
Projected Final Score: Ottawa Senators 4, St. Louis Blues 3
Best Moneyline Pick: Ottawa Senators ML
Total Lean: Over 6