Can the Calgary Flames pull off the impossible? Despite the worst start in franchise history, the Flames have somehow managed to remain in the playoff hunt longer than anyone expected. With a 6-3-1 record in their last 10 games, a Flames team that once seemed dead in the water continues to chip away at their early-season hole.

Following Sunday’s slate, the Flames remain five points out of the playoffs, with the same number of games played. Can they continue to pick up wins and inch closer to a playoff spot as 2025 comes to a close?

Current NHL standings

As mentioned, the Flames are only five points out of the playoffs right now. They’ve also started to very slowly inch their way out of the NHL’s basement.

TeamRecordPoints %Seattle Kraken12-12-6.500St. Louis Blues12-14-7.470Calgary Flames13-16-4.455Nashville Predators12-15-4.452Vancouver Canucks12-17-3.422

For the first time since October, the Flames no longer lead the NHL in regulation losses. That title now belongs to the Vancouver Canucks, who have dropped 17 in regulation compared to the Flames’ 16. Given the Canucks recent blockbuster deal that saw their captain Quinn Hughes head to Minnesota, they seem like the new odds-on favourites for last place in the NHL this season.

Path to the playoffs

So, if the organization continues to believe the playoffs are possible, given the team’s recent results, what must the Flames do in the remaining 49 games to achieve this goal?

Up to now, we’ve been using the organization’s threshold of 97 points to make the playoffs. However, the Western Conference has been so poor this year that the playoff cut-off may be drastically lower this season. Based on The Athletic’s model, the second wild card team in the West is currently on track for just 90 points.

Point % in Final 49 GamesSeason-end Point Total.571 (point pace since Nov. 1st)86.595 (Flames in 2024–25)88.610 (pace needed for 90pts)90

As was the case last week, the Flames remain within striking distance of a playoff spot. With that said, it would take the team playing even better than they have recently to sneak in. If we go back to November 1st, the Flames are playing at a .571 pace with an 11-8-2 record. If they were to continue to play at that level for the next 49 games, they’d finish right around 86 points. AKA directly in the mushy middle of the league, sitting just outside the playoffs.

Even if they replicated their .595 pace from the 2024-25 season, it would likely still not be enough, as they’d only manage around 88 points. In fact, it’d probably land them exactly where it did last season, as the 9th-place team in the west.

If we’re to assume the playoff cut-off in the west remains 90 points, the Flames would need to play at a .610 pace the rest of the way to just barely get in. If you’ve watched this team this season, you’d know just how tough a .610 pace would be for this rendition of the Flames. Only eight teams in the entire NHL have played at that pace this season.

Road to a top-five pick

Now let’s take a look at the reverse, and see where the Flames could land in the draft lottery based on different results the rest of the season. Their recent hot stretch has hurt their odds for now, but make no mistake, this is still very much a bottom-feeder team for the time being.

Using the Athletic’s model, last place in the NHL is currently tracking to finish around 73 points. Third last is on pace for 76 points, and fifth last is on pace for 77 points.

Point % in Final 49 GamesSeason-end Point Total.455 (current pace)75.409 (Flames in 1997–98, worst pace in franchise history)70.470 (2013–14 Flames, highest draft pick in franchise history)76.50079

While the Flames continue to make team tank sweat, for now, they remain firmly in position for a top pick at the 2026 NHL draft. If the Flames were to play at their current .455 pace for the rest of the year, they’d finish with around 75 points. Based on current projections, that would likely place them right around second or third last in the league.

However, if they were to play right around .500 over the next 49 games, something that this team is clearly capable of doing given their recent stretch, they’d end the year with 79 points. While the team would still be in line for a top 10 pick, 79 points would likely place them around seventh or eighth last in the NHL, a far cry from a top-three selection.

If they managed something right in the middle of their current pace and .500, they’d end the year with around 76 points. That total would likely leave them third or fourth last in the league and very much in range of their highest draft pick in team history.

A plastic bag drifting through the wind

With a 6-3-1 record in their last 10 and a truly terrible Western Conference field, the Flames’ playoff hopes somehow continue to live on into the middle of December. The next couple of weeks will likely determine whether the Flames truly bottom out or remain in the playoff hunt right up until the March trade deadline.

Unless they’re able to maintain this recent turnaround for another four months, a bottom-10 finish for the Flames and a place in the lottery still seems likely despite what ownership wants you to believe.

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