Don’t look now, but the Nashville Predators may be getting their season back on track.
Though they remain in eighth place in the Central Division after winning seven of their last 10 games, the Predators (13-15-4, 30 points) are only five points out from the final wild card spot.
We are still months from playoff bubble watch – and a potential sell-off by general manager Barry Trotz is not out of the question – but Nashville is finally stringing together some wins.
Included are wins over the top-ranked Colorado Avalanche and the defending Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers.
So have the Predators finally found something that works? Or is this hot streak a mirage?
Here are three reasons Nashville’s finally getting results – and one reason not to get too excited.
Predators’ Steven Stamkos leading a new, dangerous top line
Following an 8-3 loss to the Panthers Nov. 24, coach Andrew Brunette made a change to his top line. Against the Red Wings two days later, he put Steven Stamkos with Ryan O’Reilly and Luke Evangelista, dropping Filip Forsberg to the second line with Erik Haula and Jonathan Marchessault.
Since then, the Predators have scored 40 goals in 10 games, a huge rate increase from their 2.36 goals per game in the previous 22 games. According to Money Puck, the new-look top line with O’Reilly, Stamkos, and Evangelista ranks 19th out of 152 lines in the NHL in expected goals share (62.1%), a metric that compares their own goal chances with goal chances against.
The move has rejuvenated Stamkos – he has eight goals and three assists in 10 games – showing us what Trotz had in mind when bringing him to Nashville in 2024.
Nashville’s power play finding rhythm, depth
An ineffective power play was part of the Predators’ offensive struggles to begin the season – their 16% success rate through 22 games ranked 24th in the league. That’s improved to 21% in the last 10 games, which ranks 11th in the league.
The biggest improvement has been the second unit: Luke Evangelista, Michael Bunting, Nick Blankenburg, Erik Haula and Matthew Wood. That group has accounted for five of the team’s last eight power play goals, using a combination of speed and playmaking that has been hard for opposing penalty kill units to slow down.
Juuse Saros is playing like a top goaltender again
No hot streak happens without a hot goaltender, and Juuse Saros is playing that role well.
Saros has won six of his last seven starts with a .916 save percentage over that span. The highlight was a 4-3 shootout win over the Avalanche when he stopped all three shot attempts in the shootout.
Scrutiny has followed Saros ever since his eight-year extension kicked in during a slump, but he’s been much better recently.
Shooting luck is here, but how long will it last?
Now it’s time to rain on the parade, because luck may be a factor in Nashville’s recent play.
According to Natural Stat Trick, the Predators have the best 5-on-5 shooting percentage (12.9%) in the NHL since Nov. 24. A shockingly high shooting rate could indicate a regression is coming.
Most teams shoot between 7-10% over the course of 82 games. Last season, the Washington Capitals led the way with 10.6%, while the Predators ranked last at 7.0%.
It’s unreasonable to expect the Predators to continue shooting at near 13% the rest of the season. What happens when that rate returns to normal? Do the wins continue? If so, the Predators could be looking at a real course change, rather than just a lucky streak.
Next up, Nashville hosts the Carolina Hurricanes on Dec. 17 (7 p.m. CT, FanDuel Sports Network).
Alex Daugherty is the Predators beat writer for The Tennessean. Contact Alex at jdaugherty@gannett.com. Follow Alex on X, the platform formerly called Twitter, @alexdaugherty1. Also check out our Predators exclusive Instagram page @tennessean_preds.