The Montreal Canadiens are in a very interesting position when it comes to the play of their second line, which features Juraj Slafkovsky, Ivan Demidov, and Oliver Kapanen.
Goals Vs. Process
I grew up thinking that the only things that really mattered in hockey were shots, goals, assists, and, of course, wins.
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Oh, and massive hip checks. The kind Rob Blake would put forth on a nightly basis. To be more accurate, they were mostly checks that he lined up with his rear end. But I digress, we’re not here to discuss butt checks.
Two decades later, I was introduced to a few more statistics that carry value, though they mostly focused on the very same events.
In that vein, I’ve always been stuck between two worlds.
One that values metrics such as shot control, and expected goals, as to project future results, and one that focuses mostly on the traditional numbers that lead to trophies, but only represent what has already taken place.
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Which brings us back to today’s topic.
Worlds are colliding, particularly when evaluating the Canadiens’ second line.
A few weeks ago we discussed their numbers with Slafkovsky, and suffice to say, the results were somewhat encouraging, but the process was way off.
And yet, Kapanen was scoring goals, something that I still have a hard time ignoring.
Now that the line has played together for over 100 minutes at 5v5, we have a better understanding of their results, as well as the overall process taking place.
Second Line Statistics
Even though the Canadiens have slightly improved their overall share of shots at 5v5 this season (48.1%, 20th in the NHL), the second line is still running below 40%.
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However, it should be noted that they did improve their shot control (CF%) in the last two weeks, slightly.
And that’s where the encouraging process ends.
The rest of the numbers have dropped, while already being well below league average.
Slafkovsky, Kapanen, and Demidov are controlling fewer than 32% of the expected goals (xGF%), and 37% of the high-danger scoring chances (HDCF%).
This suggests that they’ve been rather lucky to tread water in the goals department (50%), and that they’re likely to continue to be outplayed and outchanced by a wide margin going forward.
At the same time, when we evaluate which players have been scoring goals at 5v5, we can see that the only player who has scored more goals than Kapanen (8), is noted sniper Cole Caufield (9). For a team like the Canadiens that tends to be goal starved, I’m not quite sure if I feel comfortable immediately suggesting that Kapanen should be removed from the second line.
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Yes, he’s getting fed high-danger chances by Demidov at a rate that no other player on the team enjoys, but the fact of the matter is that he’s finishing those chances, unlike many other players currently wearing a Canadiens uniform.
Montreal Canadiens Brass Tacks
We don’t know how Demidov would perform alongside a different centre, as he’s only been used with Kapanen, nor do we know how often Kapanen would score without an elite passer like Demidov on his wing.
But we do know that Kapanen’s inflated shooting percentage at 5v5 will drop, seeing as he leads all regularly used players with 20%.
This connotes that the Canadiens should look to replace him, and yet, that’s much easier said than done.
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There are no legitimate replacement options in the lineup, due to the dearth of depth at the centre position, and I have a hard time believing head coach Martin St-Louis would ignore the goals to put his faith entirely in the underlying numbers. The only option I see at his disposal is placing Demidov on the first line with an elite player such as Nick Suzuki, but I get the sense that’s not in St-Louis’ game plan, at least not for now.
As it stands, the Canadiens are essentially stuck between a rock and a hard place when it comes to the second-line centre options, and they will have to figure out a better combination once they’re available, but there’s some solace to be taken when evaluating Kapanen’s goals.
In a perfect world, his goal-scoring would be paired with solid underlying numbers, but this is not a perfect world, and the Canadiens are far from a perfect team.
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