Welcome back to another edition of NHL Predictions. Each day, our writers here at Last Word On Hockey break down the slate using matchup context, recent form, and underlying data to project likely outcomes. This NHL Prediction focuses on a cross-conference matchup in Southern California, where the Anaheim Ducks look to respond after a rough home loss to the Stars. The Ducks host the Columbus Blue Jackets in the second of two meetings between these familiar opponents over the last week. Be sure to check out more NHL Predictions throughout the 2025–26 season.

2025-26 Season Series: Blue Jackets lead 1–0

Time: 10:00 p.m. Eastern Standard Time (EST); 7:00 p.m. Pacific Time (PT)

How to Watch – US TV: FDSNOH, Victory+, ESPN+ | Canada TV: SN, SN+

Setting the Stage

The Anaheim Ducks (20–13–2) enter this one needing a reset after being overwhelmed 8–3 by Dallas on Friday night. That loss snapped some positive momentum and exposed familiar issues, particularly when Anaheim fails to control the high-danger areas. Despite the lopsided scoreline, the Ducks remain one of the stronger territorial teams in the Western Conference, ranking above 51 percent in both five-on-five Corsi and Fenwick. The problem continues to be chance quality rather than volume.

Columbus (14–14–6) arrives in Anaheim after dropping six of its past seven games, including a 5–2 home loss to Minnesota on Thursday. There one win in the past seven games was an OT thriller against the Ducks back in Columbus. While results have lagged, the Blue Jackets have not collapsed structurally. Their underlying shot shares remain near break-even, and their offence continues to flow primarily through aggressive defence activation. This matchup sets up as a contrast between Anaheim’s transition-driven attack and Columbus’ willingness to trade chances off broken structure.

This matchup also creates an interesting storyline between picks two and three of the 2023 entry draft; the picks after Connor Bedard are close. Many questioned Pat Verbeek’s decision on passing on Adam Fantilli at the second overall pick. We will see if this game is step towards redeeming that decision.

Columbus Blue Jackets Storyline

Columbus continues to be driven by blue-line offence and individual creation rather than structured puck dominance. Zach Werenski has been the engine, leading all Blue Jackets skaters in points, expected goals involvement, and average game score. When Columbus generates offence, it often comes from Werenski activating downhill or joining late into rush sequences.

At five-on-five, the Blue Jackets sit near league average in shot share but struggle to suppress chances once play collapses into their zone. Their expected-goals-against rate has climbed during the recent losing streak, largely due to extended defensive-zone shifts following failed exits. Goaltending remains volatile, with Jet Greaves and Elvis Merzlikins both carrying wide performance bands. For Columbus, this matchup hinges on clean breakouts and limiting Anaheim’s speed through the neutral zone. When the Jackets get pulled into track meets, structure tends to unravel.

Columbus goal!Scored by Adam Fantilli with 01:28 remaining in the OT period.Assisted by Kent Johnson and Zach Werenski.Columbus: 4Anaheim: 3#ANAvsCBJ #CBJ #FlyTogether

— NHL Goals (@nhlgoals.bsky.social) 2025-12-17T02:51:41.051785Z

Anaheim Ducks Storyline

Anaheim’s profile remains clear and data-supported. At five-on-five, the Ducks generate offence through controlled entries and secondary rush waves rather than sustained cycle pressure. Leo Carlsson continues to anchor that approach, leading Anaheim forwards in on-ice shot share and expected goal involvement. Cutter Gauthier and Troy Terry benefit from that middle-lane movement, ranking among the team leaders in individual expected goals and shot attempts per 60.

However, the Ducks’ finishing continues to lag their possession metrics. Anaheim sits just below 50 percent in expected-goal share despite controlling over 51 percent of shot attempts. Defensively, breakdowns still occur once initial coverage fails, with the Ducks ranking in the bottom half of the league in high-danger chance share allowed. Lukas Dostal is the likely starter, and while his underlying numbers remain solid, Anaheim’s margin tightens considerably when slot coverage erodes. Tempo remains the Ducks’ most important variable.

Anaheim goal!Scored by Jackson LaCombe with 03:16 remaining in the 3rd period.Assisted by Ryan Poehling and Mikael Granlund.Columbus: 3Anaheim: 3#ANAvsCBJ #CBJ #FlyTogether

— NHL Goals (@nhlgoals.bsky.social) 2025-12-17T02:31:40.688198Z

The Model

The blended model simulates this matchup 10,000 times using four evenly weighted inputs. The in-house model gives Anaheim a narrow 51.2 percent edge, driven by territorial control and transition efficiency at home. MoneyPuck projects the Ducks at 54.5 percent, reflecting Columbus’ recent defensive struggles and goaltending volatility. HockeyStats leans Columbus at 51 percent, largely influenced by finishing and special teams variance. The betting market sits close to pick’em.

After blending all inputs, Anaheim lands at 52.1 percent, with fair odds near −109. Columbus settles at 47.9 percent, with fair odds around +109. This profiles as a true coin-flip game, but home ice and pace control slightly favour the Ducks.

NHL Prediction

Anaheim’s ability to dictate pace gives it the clearer path to control this matchup. If the Ducks can consistently gain the zone with speed and avoid extended defensive-zone shifts, they should generate the higher-quality looks over 60 minutes. Columbus remains dangerous when games open up, particularly through Werenski-led rush play, but recent defensive leakage limits their margin.

Expect a competitive game that swings on transition defence rather than volume metrics. Anaheim’s edge comes from cleaner entries and more stable goaltending at home.

Prediction: Ducks win 4–3 (Model Probability: 52.1%)

2025–26 Season Prediction Record: 7–8

Prop Bets of the Night

Tonight’s prop card leans into pace and secondary creation rather than top-line finishing. Leo Carlsson over 0.5 goals (+175) profiles well against a Columbus defence that struggles to deny controlled entries through the middle of the ice. When Anaheim dictates tempo, Carlsson is more likely to attack off the rush rather than defaulting to pass-first sequences, which has pushed his individual shot volume higher in faster games. On the back end, Jackson LaCombe over 0.5 assists (+125) offers value based on role and puck movement. Anaheim’s offence increasingly runs through weak-side activation, and LaCombe leads Ducks defencemen in east–west distribution at five-on-five. Columbus’ tendency to collapse low creates second-touch assist paths from the point, giving LaCombe realistic assist equity even without heavy power-play reliance.

2025–26 Season Prop Bet Record: 19–14 (+7.69 units)

 

Disclaimer: Projected lineups and starting goalies are based on available information at the time of writing. Please check social media and official team sources for the very latest lineup news before locking in any daily fantasy roster or prop wagers.

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Main Photo: Russell LaBounty-Imagn Images