COLUMBUS, Ohio — Prior to the beginning of the 2025-26 NHL season, Blue Jackets center Adam Fantilli said that the season would be a “failure” if the team doesn’t make the playoffs.
Unfortunately for the Blue Jackets, they are trending towards that failure.
Columbus enters the five-day holiday break in last place in the Eastern Conference with a record of 15-15-6 (36 points). They are closer to having the fewest points in the NHL (32, shared by two teams) than to a playoff spot (42 points).
This comes despite the additions of veterans including Charlie Coyle and Miles Wood, not to mention solid goaltending from Jet Greaves.
So why have the Blue Jackets disappointed?
Here are five sets of stats that explain their problems. All stats are accurate prior to Tuesday night’s games.
1. Third period nightmares
Ever since a 3-2 loss to the Islanders on Nov. 2 in which the Blue Jackets gave up two goals in the final 1:07 of regulation, the third period has been nothing short of a disaster for Columbus.
The Blue Jackets have a minus-22 goal differential in the third period, which is far and away the worst in the NHL.
Not only have they given up a league-worst 53 goals in the third, but they are also tied for the second-fewest goals scored in the third with 31.
Starting with the Nov. 2 loss to the Islanders, the Blue Jackets have blown third-period leads 10 times. They have won four of those, and none in regulation.
While teams in the NHL are giving up leads more often than usual because of the compressed schedule, the reality is this feels like a constant problem for the Blue Jackets that they can’t seem to fix.
Blue Jackets goaltender Elvis Merzlikins has a goals against average greater than 4.00 so far this season.AP2. Elvis Merzlikins has had a nightmare season
Elvis Merzlikins had been alternating starts with Jet Greaves to start the season. But Greaves has emerged as the main man in this tandem and a big reason why is because Merzlikins simply hasn’t played well enough.
In 14 games, Merzlikins has a 4.04 goals against average and a .877 save percentage, both of which would be the second worst of his career.
More worrisome, according to Moneypuck.com, Merzlikins is giving up 3.3 more goals than expected, which is 10th worst among any goalie to play in the NHL this season. By comparison, Greaves ranks 10th best among all goalies in this stat (14.9).
Merzlikins has only allowed fewer than three goals in a game just once all season. That was on Oct. 21 in a 5-1 win at Dallas.
While the team is having defensive problems in front of its goaltenders (more on that below), the bottom line is Merzlikins is having one of the worst seasons of his entire career.
3. Too many shots getting on goal
Another main issue with the Blue Jackets is simply allowing their opponents to get too many shots on goal.
The Blue Jackets rank third in the NHL in most shots against per game at 30.8.
Going further, while Merzlikins has really struggled, he hasn’t had much help. According to Moneypuck, only 19.08% of the shot attempts he’s faced have been blocked. That’s the fifth-lowest percentage of all goaltenders.
The number for Greaves is slightly better, although still in the bottom 20 of the NHL at 20.83%.
Columbus’ team save percentage of .888 ranks 20th in the NHL, so it’s not completely bad. But when you’re giving up the third-most shots per game in the NHL, even a middle-tier save percentage doesn’t look as good.
The bottom line is the Blue Jackets need to be much better at shot suppression, and that’s not just the defensemen. Forwards also have to be better at pressuring the puck, clearing it out of the defensive zone with more regularity and possessing it more.
Zach Werenski has been one of the few bright spots on defense for the Blue Jackets.AP4. The defensemen are not taking steps forward
One of the big subjects of the offseason was the Blue Jackets bringing back the same group of defensemen from last season hoping for internal development.
That has not happened, particularly in their own end of the ice.
According to Natural Stat Trick, of the 24 Blue Jackets who have played at least 20 minutes, only eight have a higher expected goals for number than expected goals against. Only two of them are defensemen — Zach Werenski and Damon Severson.
For comparison, five of the nine qualified defensemen for the Carolina Hurricanes are a positive in this category, and four have played at least 22 games.
These numbers show that not only are the Blue Jackets’ defensemen struggling to keep the puck out of the net, but that it’s not about luck.
5. Not enough time in the offensive zone
One common trend for the Blue Jackets after 36 games is that they’re not spending enough time where a team wants to be on the ice.
According to NHL EDGE, the Blue Jackets spend just 40.1% of their time in the offensive zone, which ranks 27th in the NHL. Their 41.7% time in their defensive end is 19th.
To compare them again to the Hurricanes, Carolina ranks first in most offensive zone time (45.9%) and in least defensive zone time (35.8%).
The stat matches the eye test because there have been numerous times where the Blue Jackets have struggled to either establish offensive zone time or clear the puck out of the defensive zone when hemmed in. It’s something that will need to be remedied coming out of the holiday break.
What we learned
It’s been a rough stretch through the first 36 games for the Blue Jackets, as persistent defensive issues continue to prevent them from winning consistently.
The good news: they’re coming off one of their best performances of the season, a 3-1 victory over the Kings in Los Angeles on Monday night.
Even better, there’s still plenty of time to climb back into the playoff mix—they sit just five points out of a spot. But to make that happen, Columbus must tighten up defensively. Without significant improvement in their own end, this season risks becoming the failure they’ve been trying to avoid.