In last month’s poll, the focus was on skaters whose starts to the season were much better than expected. Not surprisingly, this month’s poll looks at the other side of the coin, namely skaters who are underperforming. For each choice, I’ve listed three numbers: (1) their actual scoring pace through December 20th games, (2) their predicted 82 game scoring rate based on the DobberHockey Fantasy Guide, and (3) the midpoint between (1) and (2). You should vote for any player(s) you believe will finish with a scoring rate at or above their midpoint.
Here’s an example to help explain things. A skater was predicted to score at a 79-point rate in the Guide, but scoring only at a 61-point pace. That’s a difference of 18 points, making the midpoint a 70-point rate. You should vote for the player if you think he’ll finish with a 70+ point scoring rate. In short, vote only for players you think will score at a high enough rate over the rest of the season to end at or above their midpoint.
This is about scoring pace/rate, not actual points, meaning a player should get your vote even if you think he won’t reach the point total that is the midpoint, so long as his 82-game scoring rate is at or above that midpoint. For players whose midpoint is not a whole number, vote for them if they’ll score above it, meaning if a player’s midpoint is 66.5 points, they’d need to end at a 67+ point rate to get your vote.
What follows are the 20 voting choices in alphabetical order, with the (1), (2), and (3) data for each. Vote for however many you think will end 2025-26 with a scoring rate at or above their midpoint. The link to cast your votes appears at the end of the column.
Brock Boeser (Actual = 42; Predicted = 64; Midpoint = 53)
Is Boeser turning into Vincent Trocheck 2.0? I raise this because a pattern has established for Trocheck where he’ll have a 70+ point season, then a couple of worse ones – sometimes quite worse – before rising to 70+ again. Lo and behold, Boeser has three times produced at a 70+ point rate, but this season is disappointing in a big way. If he is indeed the next Trocheck, then that would make it less likely he rights his ship this season.
Pavel Buchnevich (Actual = 42; Predicted = 63; Midpoint = 52.5)
It seems like a lot longer ago than 2022-23 Buchnevich had his second season in a row of better than point per game output. He showed signs of hope in Q4 last season; but so far he’s hardly shooting and seeing his lowest TOI per game in several years, although higher than his first point per game campaign. He may have a chance to salvage 2025-26 though, given past hot streaks.
Quinton Byfield (Actual = 47; Predicted = 65; Midpoint = 56)
With 19 points in his final 21 games for 2024-25, many felt Byfield would not need until game 400 to break out despite being a larger framed player. Now they’re wondering not when but if that breakout will even happen. What’s especially concerning is Byfield has seen a big jump in overall and PP TOI, yet still he’s struggling. But he’s not so far below his predicted pace that if he has another huge second half he will indeed be able to salvage his season.
Drew Doughty (Actual = 30; Predicted = 47; Midpoint = 38.5)
Now 36, Doughty is on pace to see his SOG per game drop for a fourth straight season, as well as his TOI per game, which is down by nearly four minutes from what it was just three seasons ago. And he’s barely taking the ice for under 40% of LA’s man advantage minutes. Doughty’s best days seem to be behind him, although perhaps he finds a way to get back on course, especially if, as has been happening of late, he’s reinstalled on PP1.
Filip Forsberg (Actual = 65; Predicted = 81; Midpoint = 73)
The lone somewhat bright spot for Nashville last season, folks were hoping the Preds would do better and, with that, Forsberg as well. So far though, not so good. Still, his SOG rate remains strong; but although his overall TOI is where it usually is, his share of PP minutes is very low for him, so it might prove difficult for him to make up lost ground.
Dylan Holloway (Actual = 42; Predicted = 77; Midpoint = 59.5)
After ending 2024-25 with 17 points in 14 games, and set to hit his 200-game breakout threshold this season, much was rightfully expected of Holloway. But so far he’s taken a huge step backward, barely producing at a point per every other game rate. His linemates are similar, as are his TOIs, both overall and on the PP. His metrics suggest bad puck luck; but even if things swing in the other direction, will it be enough to get him to his midpoint considering how far below it he is now?
Quinn Hughes (Actual = 71; Predicted = 91; Midpoint = 81)
Those expecting his trade to Minnesota to pay huge, immediate dividends have instead seen him tally a fine, but by no means superb, three points in his first four games. The theory that he could only thrive on a lousy team might gain legs if Hughes can’t start scoring again the way he normally does.
Clayton Keller (Actual = 66; Predicted = 92; Midpoint = 79)
After climbing to 90 points last season, and with the Mammoth – on paper – looking even better going into this season, Keller seemed primed to thrive. Instead though, he’s taken a step back. But his SOG rate and TOIs are nearly identical, suggesting he has a realistic opportunity to do a lot better over the rest of the season.
Anze Kopitar (Actual = 46; Predicted = 65; Midpoint = 55.5)
After announcing this would be his final NHL season, many felt Kopitar would do his best to go out with a bang. But if he keeps up this pace, it will be more like a whimper. Amazingly this is happening despite him shooting more and getting more PP TOI per game. Truth be told, it may just be that he opted to retire a season too late.
Jordan Kyrou (Actual = 47; Predicted = 71; Midpoint = 59)
Yet another Blue on the list, Kyrou has basically been a lock for 30-35 goals and 30-35 assists per season. Yet for 2025-26, he’s nowhere near either of those paces. Whether it’s because his TOI per game is down by over a minute, or floundering on the PP, it’s unclear if he’ll be deployed in a way to allow him to right his ship enough to reach his midpoint.
Auston Matthews (Actual = 65; Predicted = 98; Midpoint = 81.5)
Some – myself included – felt Matthews would rise to the occasion in view of Mitch Marner not being with the Leafs, as the one time Marner had an extended absence in 2023-24, Matthews scored at better than a 1.5 points per game pace. In fairness, thus far Matthews would be tied for the league lead in goals……if he was a defenseman! In all seriousness though, his SOG rate is low for him, but what is of concern is his SH% is not. His ice time is not to blame, and you can’t fault his linemates, as Matthew Knies has found some success. Perhaps Matthews’ injuries have taken a cumulative toll? We know he’s capable of exploding for stretches of huge numbers, but is that foreseeable for 2025-26?
Matvei Michkov (Actual = 46; Predicted = 79; Midpoint = 62.5)
When a rookie scores at a 65-point pace on a team helmed by John Tortorella, there will be sky high expectations for them going into their sophomore season under a new coach. But Rick Tocchett must not like what he’s seeing in Michkov, as he’s not even taking the ice for a quarter of the game, nor is he out there for 50% of the team’s man advantage minutes. His linemates are among the best of the best on the Flyers, so that can’t be blamed. This has the makings of a problem unlikely to fix itself this season.
J.T. Miller (Actual = 52; Predicted = 86; Midpoint = 69)
After a slow start upon arrival in the Big Apple, Miller hit his stride and produced at a point per game level in the second half. Not near the 100+ point pace he had twice for the Canucks, but at least a sign of perhaps a rebound. Or maybe not. With “rough and tumble” players like Miller, there is always a concern that when they hit 30, the cumulative toll of their playing style will cause their production to drop, often precipitously. That might indeed be happening here.
Sean Monahan (Actual = 40; Predicted = 76; Midpoint = 58)
After looking like he might be on his way out of the NHL, Monahan rebounded in 2022-23 and 2023-24, then established a career high scoring rate last season at age 30, igniting hopes of him being reborn as a top fantasy option. Maybe though that was premature, as Monahan’s output is down sharply, due to a big drop in SOG and despite not much difference in TOI both overall and on the PP. It might be too much to realistically expect a bounce back, at least this season.
Brayden Point (Actual = 56; Predicted = 84; Midpoint = 70)
Despite shooting 20%+ in each of the last three seasons, and with 30+ PPPts in each as well. Point’s scoring rate had been dropping. Now though it’s plummeted. But just as 20% was too high, 9.5% is too low. Still, he’s shooting less and his overall TOI is down despite his PP TOI being up. Interestingly he’s no longer tethered to Nikita Kucherov, but has produced since returning from injury. Can this last, and enable him to make up the gap that exists?
Owen Power (Actual = 22; Predicted = 45; Midpoint = 33.5)
After hitting the point per every other game mark for the first time last season, hopes were that the former first overall draft pick would build upon that. Instead, he’s pacing for a career worst season. His ice time is down, as is his SOG rate, but his OZ% is not low for him, and his secondary assist rate is actually high. Things do not look promising.
Dylan Strome (Actual = 60; Predicted = 83; Midpoint = 71.5)
After a first ever point per game campaign, many had that mark pegged as Strome’s downside. Apparently not. He’s still above a 70% OZ%, and actually has seen his TOI rise both overall and on the PP. His SH%, which was high but not hugely so for him last season, does seem low, such that he could make gains. But otherwise it might be he ends up a “one and done” member of the point per game club.
Shea Theodore (Actual = 53; Predicted = 71; Midpoint = 62)
If there is anyone on this list for whom the voting being based on scoring rate, not actual points, is most applicable, it likely would be Thedore, who is hurt as I write this. But in prior seasons even if he missed games he was stellar when he did play. The fact that when he was healthy Vegas was dabbling with a 5F PP1 did not help his cause for sure. But it’s tough to rule him out from rebounding to his usual heights.
Robert Thomas (Actual = 67; Predicted = 97; Midpoint = 82)
When he finished with 45 points in his last 30 games, Thomas seemingly signaled that he had arrived as a 90 point downside player. The issue is overall TOI is down a full minute, and he still is not getting true “star treatment” in terms of man advantage minutes. Those make it difficult to envision him scoring enough to rise to even his midpoint.
MacKenzie Weegar (Actual = 25; Predicted = 49; Midpoint = 37)
Having been handed the PP1 reigns, Weegar became a fantasy darling due to his combination of scoring and banger stats. But this season the dots are not connecting, leading to his PP1 time eroding. His OZ% is still favorable though, and his SOG rate is okay too. No question that his team isn’t doing him favors, and this is a big hole from which to dig out.
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There you have it – 20 players who’ve given their owners grey hairs instead of happiness. But for some, chances are their ships can be righted. Your job is to decide who they are, and vote for them if indeed you think that by the end of the season their scoring rates (not necessarily their actual point totals) will be at or above their listed midpoint. Click here to cast your votes.
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Questions for Mailbag Column
My monthly mailbag runs soon and I have room to answer more questions. To get yours to me, you can either private message “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums or, instead, send an email to [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.