Merry Christmas, RMNB readers. It’s a time of rest and reflection. I’m not getting none of the first part, but let’s all share in the second part.
I have scrupulously scrivened your pre-season predictions and present them now to you. If you recall, last year everyone was too negative. I think you did a lot better this season, which is also to say the Caps are a little bit worse.
Still…
The Capitals are going to make the playoffs.
Ninety-nine percent of you think so, at least.
The Eastern Conference has been mega-weird (technical term) this season. Every team is above .500 in points percentage. Only eight teams are going to make the playoffs, but eleven teams are on pace for 91 or more points.
Moneypuck thinks the Caps have a 76.4 percent chance of making the postseason. That number has dropped after a couple of lulls, but for now it looks like 99 percent of us will be proven right.
The Capitals will be a hundred-point team.
103 points, to be precise. 103.4 to be even preciser.
I think of one-hundred points as the same, approximately, as being a top-ten team. The Caps aren’t that right now. As of Christmas, they’re on a 95-point pace, but we’re also in the midst of a slump (five-on-five) and eschatological crisis (power play). With some tweaks, I think it’s totally possible the Caps get into triple digits.
The Capitals will make it to the conference final.
Okay, now you’re getting bold. On average, you predicted the Caps will win 9.1 playoff games. (I removed all the people who said they’d win 69 or 420 games.)
That would get the Caps into the third round of the playoffs for just the third time in franchise history (1998 – boo hiss, and 2018 – hell yeah, woop woop). It would also keep us at RMNB posting game coverage until late May. I’d love that.
Alex Ovechkin will score 37 goals.
If I published this in October like I was supposed to, this prediction would have been a scandal. As of Christmas, Ovechkin is on pace for 31 goals. He’s been cold for a few weeks, just as the Caps have slumped.
As we discussed in the Snapshot, his shot volume is still there – during five-on-five at least. He’s on pace for a career low in power-play goals.
Alex Ovechkin will not sign a new contract.
62 percent of you think this is the final year of Alex Ovechkin’s time as Washington Capital. I didn’t ask you if that’s the same thing as him retiring altogether, but I bet it is. Can you imagine him in, like, a Vegas Golden Knights ♞ uniform?
Please don’t make that a prompt in an AI image generator. That’d be depressing on multiple levels.
Sonny Milano will play 34 games.
After being one of Washington’s MVPs in 2023-24, Milano missed all but three games in 2024-25 with an upper-body injury – assumed to be related to a concussion.
Undeniably a gifted player, Milano has never been able to play more than 66 games in a full season. He’s played in 23 of 37 as of today, on pace to clear your bar, but would still miss his career high by 16 games.
Logan Thompson will out-perform Charlie Lindgren
I wondered if 2024-25 was an uncharacteristic down year for Lindgren and a hard-to-repeat good year for Thompson, so I asked you what you thought. Ninety-five percent of you told me to shut up.
Here are their goals-saved-above-expected for last season and this season so far:
2024-25
2025-26
Lindgren
-1.0
+4.2
Thompson
+26.0
+22
Okay, I’ll shut up now.
The Edmonton Oilers will win the Stanley Cup.
Hahaha. Good one guys. A plurality – 25 percent – of respondents said the 2025-26 Stanley Cup would belong to Connor McDavid’s Edmonton Oilers 🛢. They’re currently ranked 16th – one spot behind Washington, your next pick at 22 percent.
The Oilers are enjoying the second worst goaltending in the league. Before the holiday they sent Stuart Skinner to Pittsburgh in exchange for Tristan Jarry, who immediately got injured. Still, they went 7-2-1 heading into the break, so maybe things are looking up.
The Stars, Canes, and Knights rounded out the top five. The Colorado Avalanche ❄, who lead the league by one billion points, got six percent of votes.
The San Jose Sharks 🦈 will finish in last place.
Last seasons’ DFL team, the Sharks, were picked to repeat by 21 percent of you. Right now there are seven teams below them. They’re ranked 32nd in shot-attempt percentage though, so I’d bet they drop.
They were followed by Pittsburgh, Chicago, Buffalo, and Anaheim. I’m not going to hassle you about any of those except the Ducks, who are second in the Central and on a 98-point pace. Leo Carlsson has been great, but I still don’t actually know how they’re pulling this off.
Ted Leonsis will not buy the Washington Nationals.
I’m gonna keep asking until he does, even if 82 percent of you tell me to stop. I will stop only when Ted Leonsis buys the Washington Nationals.
Maybe some Qatari petrodollars will help.
You do not care who will win the Mark Messier Leadership Award.
After Tom Wilson, the most common guess was Mark Messier.