Christmas pauses the NHL grind, but it also provides a clear picture of how teams stand as we approach the midseason. Every team sits still for a moment while the standings speak loudly.

For teams with playoff hopes, this stretch defines belief versus reality. That tension frames where Edmonton and Montreal stand right now.

What Are the Chances of the Edmonton Oilers and Montreal Canadiens Making It to the Playoffs?

The Edmonton Oilers (19-13-6) enter the holiday window looking like a playoff certainty, even if the path feels unfinished. Sportsnet’s Christmas Eve projection places Edmonton as the third seed in the Pacific Division. That slot would line up a first-round matchup against the Anaheim Ducks, a pairing built on speed versus skill.

Edmonton’s position reflects confidence rather than dominance. Dom Luszczyszyn’s projection model at The Athletic reinforces that view. Across 50,000 simulations, the Oilers land seventh overall with a 94 percent playoff chance. The model respects their firepower but stops short of calling them favorites.

Offense drives Edmonton’s case, as the team scores in waves and leans on elite talent to tilt games. Connor McDavid leads the league (with 67 points) in impact and production, while Leon Draisaitl (55 points) remains a constant threat. Special teams amplify that edge, especially a top-ranked power play.

Still, the simulations hint at limits. Edmonton’s Stanley Cup odds sit at four percent, with a nine percent chance to reach the Final. Defensive lapses and inconsistent goaltending keep them just below the league’s true heavyweights.

In the Eastern Conference, the Montreal Canadiens (20-12-5) present a different story. Sportsnet’s snapshot places Montreal second in the Atlantic Division. That seeding would open the playoffs against the Tampa Bay Lightning, a test loaded with experience and pace.

Montreal’s season has surprised many. A journey of confidence started with last year’s playoff berth but first-round exit. Young players have driven progress, and the results have followed. Nick Suzuki (42 points) anchors the lineup with steady play, while Cole Caufield (18 goals) provides the finishing touch and momentum swings.

READ MORE: Former Oilers Goalie Gets Brutally Honest on Edmonton’s Tristan Jarry Trade

Luszczyszyn’s projection models remain cautious. His numbers rank Montreal 19th overall with a 46 percent playoff chance. Cup odds stay under one percent, reflecting thin margins and limited depth compared to elite contenders. Montreal’s record supports the belief, but the models weigh schedule, health, and long-term balance. One rough stretch could flip their seed, which we have seen after their strong start this season.

League-wide projections favor Colorado, Tampa Bay, and Vegas at the top. Toronto lingers outside the picture (currently near the bottom of the Eastern Conference), while several teams crowd the cutoff line. For Edmonton and Montreal, Christmas offers clarity rather than comfort. Their spots look real, but nothing feels settled yet.