Tonight we have Saturday Night Hockey featuring the Battle of Ontario from the home of the Toronto Maple Leafs and the pesky Ottawa Senators. We like to refer the Sens as skilled on this a Senators edition of NHL Predictions, not necessarily pesky. Although hey, being annoying to play against never hurt anyone, except maybe Leaf fans. Maybe 6-7 was a shot at the Harold Ballard-era saga, somehow, someway. But we are talking a Stanley Cup Playoff position on the line, and it isn’t even halfway through 2025-26. What are you doing, if not watching the Sens and Leafs tonight. Maybe catching some World Juniors action is the only acceptable reply.

NHL Predictions

Ottawa Senators (18-13-5) fifth place in the Atlantic Division
Toronto Maple Leafs (16-15-5) eighth place in the Atlantic Division

Puck Drop: 7:00 p.m. Eastern Standard Time (EST)

How to Watch: SN, CBC, CITY, TVAS

Location: Scotiabank Arena, in Toronto, Ontario

The Ottawa Senators visit Toronto for the first time this season. This will be a keen matchup for the two clubs. This effect is clearly amplified by the timing after the Christmas break.

Heeeyyyyy, we all know what the Leafs are holding. It is a plethora of high-level skill. Auston Matthews, John Tavares, William Nylander, Morgan Rielly…these were elite players of their age group throughout the years.

For the Senators, this generation is not much different. Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stutzle, Shane Pinto, Linus Ullmark, Thomas Chabot, Jake Sanderson, Drake Batherson, Dylan Cozens, the Senators are above average matchup hounds. For Ottawa, possessing three centres deep, with Stutzle, Cozens, and Pinto, is a sign of a conference finalist, not to say they can achieve it. But it is a favourable trait.

Studying the Statistical Matchup Between Leafs and Sens

In tonight’s matchup, we will be ready for anything. These teams have a lot of different personalities. In terms of statistical comparisons, there are some surprising takeaways. The talent on the Maple Leafs and only having a 13% power play, it is unexpected. Meanwhile, Ottawa is more successful, ranking fourth at 26.1%. The Leafs do have a strong penalty kill at 83.3%, good for the fifth rank in the NHL. Conversely, Ottawa still has a poor rate, at 71.7%, but has been getting better, just not be leaps and bounds. The two teams score at around the same rate, at 3.22 goals-per-game for Ottawa and 3.19 for Toronto.

The Sens have beaten the Leafs in the last five consecutive regular season contests. However, we all remember how the two clubs’ more recent history played out. Of course, we are talking about the first-round 2025 Stanley Cup Playoff matchup. That was a hard fought series, that included three overtime games in a row. It also included a partial 3-0 comeback. The Sens had Leaf fans sweating after they had forced a game six at the Canadian Tire Centre. We know how that series ultimately ended, but the Sens had shown their core group had arrived.

We have added Steve Sullivan as an Assistant Coach.

Sullivan joins the Leafs from the Toronto Marlies. pic.twitter.com/Pn6K0RgNiA

— Toronto Maple Leafs (@MapleLeafs) December 26, 2025

Both teams have various levels of personnel changes since that time. For Ottawa, they kept their main core together, and tried to add some depth components. Players like Lars Eller and Jordan Spence have helped the Sens depth somewhat. Plus, with their collective group a year more experienced, as well as now playoff tested, they are benefiting from invaluable lessons.

For Toronto, we all know the famous end to the Mitch Marner era. The trickle down ended up in Marc Savard recently being let go, who has been subsequently replaced by Steve Sullivan. The Leafs have struggled to find their stride offensively, something that was never a problem over the club’s recent history. Matthews is on pace for about 57 points, that regardless of games played, would be a career low. It was hoped Matias Maccelli would shoulder some of the playmaking load in Marner’s absence, but he only has 11 points through 25 games. On the other hand, they do have some strong performances. William Nylander leads the team with 40 points, and Matthew Knies and John Tavares are both 30 or above. They have struggled with continuity with the moving parts, but no doubt, the talent is there.

Moving to the Goaltenders in NHL Predictions

The anticipated goaltending matchup looks to be a good one. Linus Ullmark is expected to go against Joseph Woll. However, this is a good time for our disclaimer to please check social media for the latest lineup news before locking in your daily fantasy roster. Woll is 6-4-1 with a 2.51 goals-against average and a .923 save percentage. Despite missing time earlier this season, numbers like those, show he’s trying to will his club to a more competitive record. His consistent play will be a factor if the Leafs are to salvage their 2025-26. Meanwhile, Ullmark continues to truck along with less than desirable overall statistics. He has a 2.86 GAA and a low .884 SV%. However, more recently he has been playing better. He is 4-0-1 in his last five decisions. In his last 15 games, he’s only surrendered more than three goals twice.

Tim Stutzle comes into this one riding high with an eight-game point streak. It will be interesting to see if he can keep the hot play going after the break. He’s got seven goals and eight assists in those games, including riding a three-game goal streak coming in.

For injuries for the Sens, Lars Eller, Shane Pinto, and Tyler Kleven are all anticipated to be back soon. With the Sens playing well, there’s no reason to rush them back.

The Leafs are getting healthier, as they recently welcomed steadying force on the blueline Chris Tanev back. In contrast, Anthony Stolarz and Brandon Carlo remain out for the Buds.

We do like the Leafs at home, after the break. But be weary, Ottawa will give them all they can handle, and then some Tkachuk to top it off.

Prediction: Leafs 3 – Senators 2

Prop Bets

For an anytime goal scorer, we are going off the board for Ottawa. Sure, we could take Brady Tkachuk or Tim Stutzle, but Ridly Greig has been skating well. His linemates like Michael Amadio and Claude Giroux are no stranger to chipping in offensively, so we like Greig to score. Meanwhile for Toronto, stick will old reliable. We think William Nylander nets one against his fellow Sweden countrymate in the Sens net, Ullmark.

Marc DesRosiers-IMAGN Images

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