With the Toronto Maple Leafs losing yet another game seven yesterday, the Calgary Flames’ first-round pick from the Florida Panthers has taken a considerable hit in value. With the Panthers advancing to the Conference Final, the pick they are sending to the Flames as part of the Matthew Tkachuk trade went from 22nd overall to somewhere between 29–32 at June’s draft, depending how the playoffs unfold.

It may only seem like a small drop, but in the first round of an already weak draft, moving down seven to 10 spots in the first round is a tough break for the talent-needy Flames. With that said, it’s not impossible to find talent at the end of the first round. Let’s take a look at how often late first-round picks in the 29–32 range pan out.

2023 draft

We’ll start with the 2023 draft, as it’s far too early to make any judgements about the 2024 class.

PickPlayer Selected29 D Theo Lindstein30W Bradley Nadeau31D Mikhaul Gulyayev32C David Edstrom

Right away, it’s worth mentioning that of the four players selected in 2023 between 29–32, Bradley Nadeau is the only one to see NHL action thus far, logging three NHL games. Nadeau is already the clear standout of this group. This past season, he made the jump to the AHL as a 19-year-old and flat-out dominated. His 32 goals were tops among AHL rookies, and his 58 points were second. As far as 30th overall picks go, this one already looks like a homerun given Nadeau’s superb AHL production already.

Edstrom also looks like a good bet, coming off back-to-back 19-point seasons in the SHL and two trades, he will make the jump to the AHL full-time next season. He currently projects as a third-line centre in the NHL, which is good value for this range in the draft.

The two defencemen picked at 29 and 31 are longer-term projects at the moment. Both Lindstein and Gulyayev are still playing in Europe and are a couple years away from NHL action. With that said, both carry NHL potential as four to six options on a blue line.

2022 draft

The 29 to 32 spot in the 2022 draft looks really solid at the moment, with three of the four players progressing nicely since being picked.

PickPlayer Selected29D Maveric Lamoureux30C Bradley Lambert31W Isaac Howard32W Reid Schaefer

Maveric Lamoureux is the current standout of this group, having logged 15 NHL games for Utah this season, a pretty good sign for a 21-year-old defenceman. He also looked really solid in his 42 AHL games and currently projects as a three-to-five-defenceman in the NHL. Great value for 29th overall.

Bradley Lambert experienced great success in the AHL as a rookie with 55 points in 2023–24, but then took a step back this past season with only 35 points in the AHL. He’s logged six NHL games, but the jury is still out on whether or not he’ll be a full-time NHLer one day. This type of risky boom-or-bust pick makes a lot of sense for the 29–32 range, though. If Lambert hits, he’ll likely vastly exceed his draft slot.

Isaac Howard dominated the NCAA ranks, winning the Hobey Baker this past year with 52 points in 37 games. He’s a dynamic offensive player who also comes with a ton of flaws, which is to be expected at this point in the draft. Betting on high-end talent is always a good idea, and Howard has the tools to be a top-six winger in the NHL if he can put it all together.

Lastly, Reid Schaefer looks to be the first miss of this group. He’s struggled to make much of an impact at the AHL level across two seasons and doesn’t have the high-end talent the others do. If he makes the NHL, it’ll be in a team’s bottom-six as a role player.

2021 draft

The last four picks of the 2021 NHL draft give you a good idea of how hard it is to pick NHL talent in this range, with some big misses and some hits in the group.

PickPlayer Selected29W Chase Stillman30C Zachary Dean31D Logan Mailloux32D Nolan Allan

We’ll start with the good. Nolan Allan looks like a decent get at 32nd overall. The 22-year-old already logged 43 games in the NHL this past season and has 80 AHL games under his belt as well. He’s never going to be a top-of-the-lineup player, but with his large frame and defensive ability, Allan looks to have a future as a bottom-pairing shutdown defender in the NHL.

Likewise, Logan Mailloux looks to be on his way to exceeding his draft value. Mailloux comes with a bit of an asterisk, however, as off-ice issues plummeted him down the first round in 2022, with the Habs taking advantage of a bad situation. With a couple solid AHL seasons under his belt already and eight games of NHL action, Mailloux looks to be on his way to becoming a four-to-six defender at the NHL level one day.

Now, for the bad, both Chase Stillman and Zachary Dean look like complete whiffs. Both players have struggled at the AHL level, failing to make much of an impact. It’s still early, but it’d be a surprise if either player became an NHLer at this point.

Late first-round pick success rate

So we’ve looked at the past three drafts and how the 29–32 range has looked thus far, but what about taking an even larger look at the history of this range of the draft? How often do these players turn into NHL players, and how often do they become impact players? Let’s take a look back at every player picked with the last four picks of the first round from 2015 to 2021.

We won’t include 2022 to 2024 as it’s too early to look at NHL totals for those groups.

MetricLast four picks of the 1st round
(between 2015–2021)Played NHL Games27 of 28>200 NHL GP8 of 28>200 NHL Points1 of 28>0.5 P/GP1* of 28

At first glance, the numbers make a lot of sense. Between 2015 and 2021, there were 28 players selected with the last four picks of the first round. Of those 28 players, 27 have played in at least one NHL game. The only player who has yet to reach the NHL is Stillman, who was selected 29th in 2021. In this regard, you’re pretty much guaranteed to get some NHL man games out of a late first-round pick. It’s their staying power that dramatically drops off.

Of the 28 players selected in the range, just eight have managed to suit up for 200 NHL games so far. Those eight players are Anthony Beauvillier, Brett Howden, Sam Steel, Henri Jokiharju, Eeli Tolvanen, Trent Frederic, Rasmus Sandin, and Joe Veleno. There are also a handful of players who can hit the mark over the next couple years in Klim Kostin, Ridly Greig, and John Beecher. That would eventually bring the total up to 11 of 28 players with 200 NHL games.

If we are looking at point production, look away, Flames fans, it’s ugly. Just one single player selected at the end of the first round since 2015 has posted 200 NHL points. That player is Beauvillier, who has played over 600 games in the NHL. There are a couple players who are closing in on the total, though, with Tolvanen, Steel, Howden, Greig, and Sandin likely to reach the mark within the next couple seasons. That would bring the total to five of 28 picks to hit 200 NHL points. Still not great.

Lastly, if you want to find a true impact player with the last four picks of the first round, your odds aren’t great. Only one player is currently producing at or above a 0.5 point per game rate of the last 28 picks. That player would be Greig, who has 138 points in 170 games played in the NHL. No one else has hit the 0.5 point per rate thus far, which would be the bare minimum to be considered an impact player offensively.

A tough blow

The Panthers’ victory over the Maple Leafs last night likely removed any chance of the Flames finding an impact player with the pick. That’s not to say it’s impossible to find high-end talent at the end of the first round, but if history is an indication, it will take some incredible luck to find a truly impactful NHL player with Florida’s pick now.

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