Chicago’s numbers show real progress, but context matters as injuries, regression, and roster questions shape the second half.
With 42 games under their belt, the Chicago Blackhawks are just over the halfway mark in the season. A lot has happened in that span. Connor Bedard and Frank Nazar are both out with injuries, the Hawks held a playoff spot in the first two months of the season, and Jeff Blashill made his debut as the 42nd head coach in Blackhawks history, just to name a few.
Let’s check in on some numbers, and I’ll share my thoughts on how this season has progressed so far.
Blackhawks Analytics
StatRanking (Metric)Goals For Per 60 (5-on-5)21 (2.82.60)Power play11 (21.2%)Penalty Kill3 (83.8%)Team Save Percentage (5-on-5)17 (.902)Team Shooting Percentage (5-on-5)14 (9.48%)PDO (SV% + SH%)19 (.997)Corsi (5-on-5)26 (47.53%)Expected Goals Share (5-on-5)29 (45.09%)Goal Differential (all situations)29 (-16)Stats sourced from Natural Stat Trick and NHL.com
If you aren’t too keen on fancy stats, I recommend checking out Natural Stat Trick’s glossary for a primer. And here’s one for PDO because we’re going to come back to that (homework, oh the horror).
Story continues below.
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The Hawks’ penalty kill ranks third overall and 11th for the power play. Even under different coaches, the Blackhawks’ special teams have posted good numbers by the halfway point in the recent past. The Hawks’ power play has struggled without Connor Bedard, scoring on five opportunities out of 28. At 5-on-5, their Corsi and expected goals shares aren’t good, but they are improvements from last season. At last year’s halfway mark, the Hawks ranked 31st in Corsi and 30th in expected goals share.
The Hawks’ PDO has regressed sharply from their early-season 1.050 to a modest .997, and they’re still two points away from a playoff spot as of this writing. Is this a playoff team, and does it matter? No, and yes. Sort of. If the Blackhawks somehow manage to squeak into a postseason spot, that’s going to be valuable experience for the Hawks’ youth. But this isn’t a playoff team. The Hawks are close because no one in the West is close. Every team in the Pacific Division is in the negative for goal differential. The Hawks are in seventh place in the Central and are only four points out of a wild-card spot.
It’s a nice bright spot in the season, for sure. A pleasant surprise and a nice to have. But Kyle Davidson isn’t ready to make a move to push this team into playoff contention. In fact, it’s better for him if this team misses the playoffs by a lot and secures another high draft pick (regardless of how I feel about that approach). For Davidson’s plan, the only thing that matters is the kids—are they improving?
Bottom Line
The analytics and numbers suggest a step forward, which is true. But I do have my concerns. Frank Nazar’s 21-game goalless streak worries me if the Blackhawks see him as their 2C. Oliver Moore, Ryan Greene (a pleasant surprise), and Nick Lardis look okay, but it’s much too early to declare anything. Artyom Levshunov looks like he could be something special in a few years, but time will tell whether he deserved that No. 2 overall pick.
Alex Vlasic hasn’t looked the same this year, and I do have concerns considering he was being compared to Jaccob Slavin recently. Spencer Knight had a spectacular start, and he seems able to bounce back from a mid-season slump (.896 SV% in December).
When fans see that the Hawks are close to a playoff spot, they have to remember the context (everyone else in the league is bad or in the middle). But that suggests the Hawks have taken a step forward, as evidenced by the analytics. It will be interesting to see how the Blackhawks perform following the Olympic break and what Kyle Davidson decides to do (if anything) at the upcoming trade deadline.