BUFFALO, N.Y. — The Buffalo Sabres have reached the halfway point of their schedule. They have won 11 of their last 12 games and are just 1 point out of a playoff spot. At this point, one month ago, the Sabres were in last place in the Eastern Conference and were days away from firing their general manager. But a 10-game winning streak has helped them keep their season alive heading into the second half.
The Sabres have 48 points through 41 games. That puts them on pace for 96 points, which would be the team’s most since 2010-11, the last season Buffalo made the playoffs.
With the season at the midway point, let’s assess the first part using 10 categories.
MVP: Tage Thompson
Thompson is tied for second in the NHL with 16 five-on-five goals. He leads the Sabres with 21 goals overall, and his on-ice expected goal share at five-on-five has a chance to be the best mark of his career. He’s still prone to the occasional defensive lapse, but he’s become a more consistent player away from the puck. This team goes as Thompson goes. He’s on pace for his most points since 2022-23, and it’s become evident that the league has noticed a change in his overall game, considering he was selected to play for Team USA at the Olympics.
“I think that’s a big reason he’s on the Olympic team,” Team USA and Rangers coach Mike Sullivan told reporters in New York this week. “He’s a really talented hockey player, as we all know. That’s obvious. All those players that are in that tournament are really talented hockey players. It takes more. I think Tage, his game continues to evolve and continues to develop. I think he has a more mature game.”
Most improved: Mattias Samuelsson
Samuelsson was a shell of himself the last two seasons while dealing with a variety of injuries that kept him out of the lineup. This season, Samuelsson has been healthy and has transformed into the type of shutdown defender the Sabres wanted to see when they signed him to a seven-year contract extension in 2022. He’s on pace to set career highs in both blocked shots and hits and has become a fixture on the top pair next to Rasmus Dahlin. He’s also already set career highs in goals (six), assists (14) and points (20), and the season is only at the halfway mark. He’s making that contract look like a bargain.
Most disappointing: Jack Quinn
Quinn has seven goals and 15 assists through 41 games, putting him on pace for 44 points. That would be a career high, so this season hasn’t been all bad for Quinn. But he has a career-high average time on ice, is getting plenty of power-play time and has played every game. He has one goal in his last 18 games. When the Sabres traded JJ Peterka during the summer, Quinn was one of the players they were counting on to replace some of that production. Lindy Ruff said he wants to see Quinn get around the net front more, but he thinks he’s getting enough opportunities to produce more goals than he has.
“I’d be concerned if he wasn’t getting opportunities, but he’s still getting those one or two good opportunities a game,” Ruff said. “Last year, he had less opportunities and took advantage of that. Just trying to be patient.”
Biggest surprise: Josh Doan
We wrote about Doan during the summer and during the preseason and expressed optimism about how important a piece he would be for the Sabres. But to see him adjust this quickly has been one of the best stories of Buffalo’s season. He’s playing on the top line and getting time on the top power-play unit. He’s already nearly doubled his career high in goals and is on pace for 56 points. He’s also the team’s most effective forechecker and one of the most reliable defensive players. That he’s already a favorite teammate of Thompson and has strongly expressed his desire to stay in Buffalo is icing on the cake. Getting Doan in the Peterka trade looks like a home run.
Best rookie: Noah Östlund
Östlund started the season in Rochester but has earned multiple call-ups and has played like a permanent Sabre lately. The Sabres are outscoring opponents 21-13 in Östlund’s five-on-five minutes, a sign of his defensive chops. And he also has seven goals and five assists in 30 NHL games this season. Among players who have played at least 30 games for the Sabres this season, Östlund is tied for second in goals per 60 minutes of ice time. He not only has been Buffalo’s best rookie, but Östlund looks like one of the team’s six best forwards in a lot of games.
Best win: 4-1 win over the Dallas Stars
The 10th and final win of Buffalo’s recent winning streak was the team’s most impressive performance of the season. The Sabres controlled the game against the Stars, who are a legitimate Stanley Cup contender. Thompson was dominant, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen was rock solid, and the team played one of its most complete games of the year. Given the quality of competition, it’s hard to find a better win from the first half of the year.
Worst loss: 6-2 loss to the Calgary Flames
The Flames came into this game in last place in the NHL, playing the second half of a back-to-back and had their backup goalie in net. And still the Sabres lost by four goals on home ice, prompting Thompson to call their effort too “soft and casual.” Samuelsson wondered if the team had too many passengers. This loss and the shutout home loss against the St. Louis Blues stand out as warts on Buffalo’s schedule.
Team strength: Penalty kill
The Sabres are second in the NHL in penalty kill percentage behind the Colorado Avalanche. And their play when killing penalties shows a lot of the qualities that have made them a better defensive team. They are blocking a ton of shots, getting timely saves on the penalty kill and showing the necessary structure and desperation it takes to limit the high-danger scoring opportunities.
Primary concerns: Injuries and the power play
As of Jan. 1, the Sabres were third in the NHL in man games lost to injury. Since then, Alex Lyon and Michael Kesselring ended up on injured reserve with what the team hopes will be short-term injuries. With Lyon’s injury, all three goalies have missed time with an injury this season. The Sabres have already missed Kesselring for an extended period of time, were without Josh Norris for a long stretch early in the season and haven’t had Jiri Kulich since early November as he deals with a blood clot issue. Offseason addition Conor Timmins is also on injured reserve with a broken leg, and fellow offseason addition Justin Danforth has been out for most of the season with a broken kneecap. If that wasn’t enough, veteran forward Jason Zucker, who leads the team in power-play goals, has been out of the lineup for half the team’s games with a few different injuries. And Zach Benson missed time early in the season with multiple injuries, too.
This version of the Sabres is probably the healthiest the team has been all season. But they could stand to get some reinforcements back in the lineup. If the Sabres are going to be a playoff team, they’re going to need much better injury luck than they got early in the season.
Another concern is the power play, which has once again gone cold. The Sabres have gone seven straight games without a power-play goal. Buffalo’s power play ranks 21st in conversion percentage and 25th in expected goals per 60. The addition of Norris gave the group a brief boost, but this is still an aspect of the Sabres’ game that is holding them back. A top-end power play can swing games. Converting at the rate the Sabres are is a good way to let standings points slip away.
Biggest question: How will Jarmo Kekäläinen handle the deadline?
A new general manager is always a wild card, and that’s why GMs across the league have been calling Kekäläinen in his first few weeks on the job to get a feel for what he’ll do with this Sabres roster. The 10-game winning streak certainly changed the dynamic a bit. The Sabres are a legitimate playoff contender at the halfway mark. If they can still be in a strong position at the Olympic break, Kekäläinen should have a chance to be an aggressive buyer at the NHL trade deadline.
But it would be worthwhile to get ahead of the market, because the Sabres have a few immediate needs, the most glaring being depth on defense. With Kesselring and Timmins out with injuries, adding another defensive-oriented, right-handed defenseman would be prudent. The Sabres could arguably use another scorer capable of playing top-six minutes. And goaltending is still a bit of a question mark.
That said, a lot of the trade questions around the Sabres will be focused on Alex Tuch, who is in the final year of his contract and hasn’t signed an extension. Teams will likely call on Tuch from now until the deadline as long as he remains unsigned. But if the Sabres are pushing for the playoffs, it would be hard for Kekäläinen to justify moving a player who is so important to Buffalo’s lineup.
How the Sabres play in the next month could dictate some of Kekäläinen’s decisions. But either way, the Sabres are going to be a fascinating team to watch on the trade market.