St. Louis Blues vs Vegas Golden Knights Picks & Predictions for Saturday, January 10, 2026

By: Kim Smith Published 01/10/2026, 01:05 AM ET

The St. Louis Blues head to T-Mobile Arena to face the Vegas Golden Knights on Saturday, January 10, 2026, with puck drop set for 10:00 PM ET on ESPN+. St. Louis enters at 17-19-8 (7-10-3 away), while Vegas comes in at 19-11-12 (9-6-6 home). This is the third meeting of the season with the series tied 1-1, and it’s a useful matchup for anyone tracking free NHL picks.

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Terms & Conditions St. Louis Blues: Low Scoring, High Leakage

St. Louis has struggled to consistently generate offence, scoring just 2.50 goals per game, and that thin margin gets even tougher when the defense doesn’t hold. The Blues are allowing 3.43 goals against per game, which is a dangerous combo when you’re not built to win shootouts.

Their shot profile explains part of it: 24.7 shots for per game is light, and 28.3 shots allowed per game leaves them spending too much time in their own end. Even when they do get power plays, the efficiency hasn’t been sharp enough to compensate—St. Louis is converting at 16.5% on the man advantage.

The penalty kill at 76.5% is another pressure point in this matchup, because it’s not the type of unit you want to lean on against a team with a strong, reliable power play. Recent form is also messy: St. Louis is 2-3 in the last five, and two of those losses were lopsided (including a 7-3 loss most recently), which suggests their floor is still very low if game script goes sideways.

From the injury report, St. Louis lists Pius Suter (IR).

Vegas Golden Knights: More Puck Control, Better Special Teams Edge

Vegas has the cleaner overall profile. They’re scoring 3.10 goals per game while allowing 3.02 goals against per game, so they’re not a pure lockdown team—but they’re much better positioned to control play and win via pressure and volume.

That shows up in the shots: 29.0 shots for per game and only 24.9 shots allowed per game is a meaningful territorial edge compared to what St. Louis usually produces and concedes. Special teams also tilt toward Vegas: they’re converting 25.2% on the power play, and the penalty kill sits at 81.8%, which is comfortably better than St. Louis in both categories.

Vegas is 2-3 in their last five, but the wins have been the type that matter for this handicap: they’ve been able to push offence and close out games when they get their chances, including a 5-3 win in their most recent outing.

Points To Consider

This matchup largely comes down to shot volume and special teams. Vegas has a sizeable advantage in puck control (nearly +4.3 shots for and -3.4 shots against compared to St. Louis), and that usually translates into longer offensive-zone time and more penalty-drawing opportunities—exactly where the Golden Knights’ 25.2% power play can punish a 76.5% penalty kill.

For totals, St. Louis games can look like Under games because of the 2.50 GF/G, but the defensive number (3.43 GA/G) can force them into higher totals anyway—especially on the road if they fall behind early.

St. Louis Blues vs Vegas Golden Knights Prediction

I lean Vegas to win, because the Golden Knights bring a much stronger shot profile and a clear special-teams edge. On the total, I lean Over 6.0 in a matchup where St. Louis’ defensive leakage is the biggest driver, and Vegas has the kind of power play that can turn a close game into a 4–2 type result quickly.

Best Bet: Golden Knights ML

Side Lean: Over 6.0 (lean)

Final Score Prediction: Golden Knights 4, Blues 2

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