This week is the start of the Eastern and Western Conference Finals, and there are mixed emotions scattered across North America for fans and players alike. For playoff teams, there is heartbreak and frustration. For non-playoff teams, there is excitement for the future or maybe apathy for consistent mediocrity. For general hockey fans, the final four is bittersweet. Multi-game nights are behind us, and as exciting as the conference and Stanley Cup Finals are, one-game nights are a sign that it’s all coming to an end.
For four teams, none of those feelings exist, and hope and anticipation for what could be are still alive and well. Two of those teams are the Dallas Stars and the Edmonton Oilers, who will play Game 1 of the Western Conference Final, a rematch of last year, on Wednesday night in Dallas. It is the Stars’ third straight trip to the final four, and for the Oilers, it is the third in the last four years. The Oilers won in six games last spring, while the Stars have yet to make it to the elusive Stanley Cup Final.
Related: 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs Conference Finals Hub
Both teams have had a terrific postseason, and both teams are much better than they were at this time last year. So, what do the Stars have to do to ensure they finally get over the hump and compete for the Stanley Cup? Let’s find out.
Stars’ Special Teams Have Been the Key to Success
In some ways, a few of these keys are going to be a review of how they got here in the first place, and one of those is their special teams. Through the first two rounds, both the power play and penalty kill have been phenomenal. Their power play is third in the league amongst playoff teams, coming into this series at 30.8%, while the penalty kill is also third, at 86.1%. The penalty kill is no surprise, since they’ve been a top-five team in this category all season. The power play, on the other hand, was bottom-five for the first three months of the season, but was top-five in the 2025 portion of the season.
Special teams being a factor is pretty obvious, but for the Stars, it really can’t be overstated. Their 5-on-5 play has been fine, but nothing spectacular. Matt Duchene has five points this postseason, and all of them have come on the power play. Tyler Seguin also has five points, and two of them have been on the power play. Jamie Benn has three points, with two of them on the power play, and Mason Marchment has four points, with two of them being on the power play. Jason Robertson, who has only played in six games, has only one point, and it came on, you guessed it, the power play. You get the picture. A lot of guys just have not been able to break through even-strength, making success with the man advantage that much more crucial. Players like Mikko Rantanen, Roope Hintz, Mikael Granlund, and Wyatt Johnston have been able to get the job done no matter the situation, but the majority of the team has not.
May 17, 2025; Dallas, Texas, USA; Dallas Stars defenseman Thomas Harley (55) and center Tyler Seguin (91) and left wing Mason Marchment (27) celebrates the game winning goal scored by Harley against the Winnipeg Jets during the overtime period in game six of the second round of the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs at American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images
If you’re looking for one clear advantage that the Stars have over the Oilers, this is it. The Oilers are 14th in the NHL this postseason with a 66.7% penalty kill success rate. They are the only team remaining who are not in the top five when it comes to the penalty kill, which means the disparity between them and the three other teams competing for the Cup is not even close. The Oilers are a much deeper team than they were last spring; their 5-on-5 production is strong, and their power play is sixth in the NHL. The one place the Stars can expose the Oilers is on the power play. It’s going to be an interesting matchup to watch as this series progresses.
The insertion of Miro Heiskanen is another factor that is going to be interesting to lay eyes on. Heiskanen has historically run the No.1 power-play unit for the Stars and done a great job. However, that has not been the story this season. Like we noted above, when Heiskanen was healthy, the power play was not good. But with Harley at the helm, it’s taken off. How the Stars approach who will run the first unit could factor into their PP success.
Home Ice Crucial Against Oilers
This next key has more to do with Dallas than it does with Edmonton. The Oilers are 8-3 this postseason, losing one game at home and two on the road. For the Stars, however, home ice was crucial in Round 1 against the Colorado Avalanche, and not having it almost came back to bite them against the Winnipeg Jets.
The Stars are 6-1 at American Airlines Center this spring, with the only loss coming in Game 1 against the Avalanche. On the road, they are 2-4, winning one game in each series away from Texas. After winning Game 1 against the Jets, they were shut out 8-0 in their next two games in Winnipeg and have been outscored 22-9 in total on the road this postseason. As good as they’ve been at home, it has been a consistent struggle on the road, making their home games against the Oilers, especially the first two, extremely important.
Before Game 7 against the Avalanche, coach Pete DeBoer said that home-ice advantage only matters in Game 7s. No one would be surprised if this series went the distance, so the fact that the Stars potentially have four games at home really could be the difference.
Another thing to consider is the matchups DeBoer can get at home. He double-shifted Rantanen a lot throughout Round 2, and since they get the last change at home, how he deploys Rantanen will be yet another thing to keep an eye on.
Depth, Depth, and More Depth
If you’ve been following my coverage of the Stars throughout the postseason, you know that I’ve been belaboring this point for the last couple of weeks, but it is more true than ever the deeper the Stars go. Players from Finland cannot be the only ones putting pucks in the net if the Stars want to finally get past the conference final.
Rantanen leads the Stars in scoring with nine goals (19 points), Hintz is second with five (10 points), and Johnston (eight points) and Granlund (seven points) are tied for third with four each. The fact that three of those four players are from Finland is hilarious, but more specifically, those three players are all on the same line. That’s not going to fly against the Oilers, it’s just not. In addition, Harley also has four goals, and having him score more goals than all but four of your forwards isn’t going to fly either.
Dallas Stars center Mikael Granlund and left wing Mason Marchment and defenseman Thomas Harley and center Tyler Seguin celebrates after Granlund scores a power-play goal against the Winnipeg Jets during the first period in game four of the second round of the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs (Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images)
Mason Marchment has only one goal, and Robertson has yet to score. Robertson is a pure goalscorer, but he has only played in six games. He’s looked better as the series against the Jets went on, so you have to think he’ll get rolling here at some point.
The one name that really jumps off the page is Duchene. In 13 games, he has only five points, and like we mentioned earlier, they’ve all been on the power play and none of them have been goals. He has 12 goals and 36 goals in 64 playoff games. That works out to one goal every 5.3 games and one point every 1.7 games, so it’s not like he’s expected to light the lamp on fire. However, he’s coming off the second-highest regular season point total in his career and has become an important part of this offense. The Stars need more from him, plain and simple.
Jake Oettinger Needs to Be the Best Goalie in the Series
On paper, the Oilers have had the second-best goaltending in every series so far. However, they won both series, and when the dust settled, their goaltenders were better than their opponents’. Here we are again. The Stars have better goaltending than the Oilers, but will it matter this time around?
After their series against the Jets concluded, DeBoer said that special teams and Jake Oettinger were the main reasons they are going deep in the playoffs once again. But generally speaking, his has not been talked about very much at all. He has been spectacular and is giving his team a chance to win every night. They don’t always take advantage of it, but the chance is always there.
Related: Jake Oettinger Has Been the Stars’ Quiet Postseason Hero
Amongst goalies who have played six or more games this postseason, Oettinger is second in save percentage (SV%), .919%, and fifth in goals against average (GAA), 2.47. Between Stuart Skinner and Calvin Pickard, the Oilers have a save percentage of .886% and a goals-against average of 2.94. Clearly, the edge goes to Oettinger. However, as shaky as the goalies have been at times for the Oilers, when they’ve needed a great game, they’ve gotten it, including back-to-back shutouts by Skinner to close out the Vegas Golden Knights.
Western Conference Final Starts on Wednesday
Game 1 gets underway on Wednesday night in Dallas. On one hand, a good start to this series feels more important for the Stars than it does for the Oilers. On the other hand, the Stars jumped out to a 2-1 series lead last year, and the Oilers won three straight games to take the series 4-2.
If you care about my prediction, I do think the Stars have the ability to win this series, but either way, this feels like a seven-gamer. If these four keys don’t pull through for the Stars, it’s going to be hard for them to dispatch of the Oilers, but they certainly have what it takes. We’ll see how it all plays out, starting on Wednesday.
