Each day, our writers here at Last Word On Hockey look at the games and give in-depth analysis. Our team breaks down the key matchups, storylines, and stats, then makes predictions based on how they might play out. For this edition, we will look at the Tampa Bay Lightning taking on the Philadelphia Flyers in Tampa, FL. Don’t forget to check out more NHL Predictions, as our writers continue this series throughout the 2025–26 season.

NHL Predictions Flyers and Lightning

Time: 7:00 p.m. Eastern Standard Time (EST)

How to Watch TV: The Spot, NBCSP

Location: Xfinity Mobile Arena in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

2025–26 Season Series: Lightning 1, Flyers 0

The Tampa Bay Lightning (26-13-3, first in Atlantic Division) host the Philadelphia Flyers (22-12-8, currently a Stanley Cup Playoff Wild Card contender in the Eastern Conference) in what should be a lively matchup between a high-scoring powerhouse and a gritty Flyers squad looking to climb the standings. Earlier this season at home, Tampa blanked the Flyers 3–0, with Brandon Hagel scoring two goals and an assist and Andrei Vasilevskiy stopping 20 shots for his first shutout of the year. 

Matchup Overview

The Lightning continue to impress with their offence clicking and their defence well-structured. Recently, Tampa beat the Colorado Avalanche 4–2, handing the Avs a rare regulation loss. Brandon Hagel scored the deciding goal, and Nikita Kucherov extended his point streak, while goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy made 31 saves to stymie one of the NHL’s best teams. 

Philadelphia is riding a solid 22-12-8 record, boosted by recent roster stability after signing Christian Dvorak to a five-year extension, where he’s tallied nine goals and 16 assists this season. 

The Flyers’ offence has shown balance, with Trevor Zegras leading in goals (17) and points (41) so far this season and Philadelphia generating a respectable 0.44 power play goals-per-game. 

Tampa Bay Lightning Outlook

Tampa Bay’s record reflects a team clicking on most cylinders. Through 42 games, the Bolts have scored 145 goals (6th in the NHL) while allowing only 111 (second best in the NHL), giving them a +34 goal differential that’s a testament to balanced scoring and disciplined play. Top forwards like Nikita Kucherov (20 goals, 41 assists), Jake Guentzel (18 goals), and Brandon Hagel (18 goals) provide consistent offence.  Vasilevskiy remains a backbone between the pipes with a .901 save percentage and a 2.33 goals-against average, keeping Tampa competitive even when the Flyers throw pucks from everywhere.  While Tampa’s power play sits around 20.0% on the season, its penalty kill is stout, limiting opponents’ chances and forcing the Flyers’ special teams to earn every inch. 

Keys to Victory – Tampa Bay

NHL Predictions thinks the Bolts need to set the pace early. Tampa thrives when they score first. Forcing the Flyers to play catch-up is not their comfort zone. Stay disciplined since the Flyers have a serviceable but middling power play, so staying out of the box keeps Tampa’s defence on its heels less often. Secondary forwards like Raddysh, Cirelli, and others need to chip in if Tampa wants to wear down a pesky Philly defence.

Philadelphia Flyers Outlook

NHL Predictions thinks the Flyers boast a competitive record and have shown they can string wins together, but they still trail Tampa in both goal differential and consistency.  Offence is led by Trevor Zegras (17 goals, 41 points) and backed by Christian Dvorak’s strong 25-point pace since joining Philly. Philadelphia’s power play, while not elite, contributes at just under a half-goal per game, enough to tilt tight contests. Goaltending and defence have improved, but allowing high-danger chances against a Lightning squad loaded with finishers could spell trouble. The Flyers must maximize scoring opportunities and stay disciplined to keep this close.

Keys to Victory – Philadelphia

The Flyers need to strike on special teams. Capitalize on the man advantage and avoid falling into a “one-goal behind” hole early. Defend around the net: Philadelphia must clog shooting lanes and make life uncomfortable for Tampa’s shooters. Finally, they need balanced scoring. Zegras, Dvorak, and other contributors need to find the back of the net to relieve pressure on goaltending.

NHL Predictions: Who Takes the W?

This one plays like high-octane offence vs. structured attack. Tampa’s top guns and balanced play give them a slight edge, but the Flyers have enough talent to make this a barnburner.

Prediction: Lightning 4, Flyers 3 (OT)

Prop Bets of the Night

Always check lineups and betting lines before placing any wagers or locking in daily fantasy starting rosters.

Lightning Team Prop – Over 3.5 Goals (-120): Tampa’s offence should find multiple scoring chances against a competitive but leaky Philly defence.

Flyers Anytime Scorer – Trevor Zegras (+140): Zegras is Philadelphia’s offensive engine and likely to be involved offensively in a tight contest.

Final Thoughts

This matchup delivers speed, skill, and enough strategic chess to keep coaches awake through three periods and overtime. Tampa wants to fortify its home-ice dominance, while Philly aims to punch above its weight. Expect a physical, fast-paced game with plenty of fan excitement.

Main Photo Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

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