Jan. 15, 2026, 7:03 a.m. ET

The Toronto Maple Leafs (23-16-7) and Vegas Golden Knights (22-11-12) meet Thursday at T-Mobile Arena in Paradise, Nevada. Puck drop is scheduled for 9:30 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NHL odds around the Maple Leafs vs. Golden Knights and make our expert NHL picks and predictions.

2024-25 season series: Tied 1-1

Toronto suffered a 6-1 loss at Utah last time out Tuesday as a heavy underdog (+240) as the Over (6.5) cashed, snapping a 10-game point streak. Backup G Dennis Hildeby played on the second end of a back-to-back and was under siege all night, allowing 6 goals on 41 shots. C Calle Jarnkrok provided the only offense. The Leafs are still 8-1-2 in the past 11 games, while the Over has cashed in the first 2 games of the road trip.

Vegas posted a 3-2 win in overtime on the road against the Los Angeles Kings Wednesday, and now it returns home on no rest. G Akira Schmid made 22 saves on 24 shots, while captain C Mark Stone provided the game-winning goal in OT. VGK has wins in 5 consecutive games, while posting at least 1 point in 6 straight games, going 5-0-1. The Over has a 3-2 edge in the past 5 outings. On no rest, the Golden Knights are 3-1-2, while the Over is 4-2 in those games.

Golden Knights RW Mitch Marner, who left Toronto after 9 NHL seasons in a sign-and-trade deal with Vegas this past offseason, plays his first game against the Maple Leafs.

Watch the NHL on Fubo!Maple Leafs at Golden Knights odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated 6:59 am. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Maple Leafs +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Golden Knights -135 (bet $135 to win $100)Puck line (PL)/Against the spread (ATS): Maple Leafs +1.5 (-220) | Golden Knights -1.5 (+180)Over/Under (O/U): 6 (O: -125 | U: +105)Maple Leafs at Golden Knights projected goalies

Joseph Woll (11-4-2, 2.54 GAA, .918 SV%, 2 SO) vs. Adin Hill (1-0-2, 2.73 GAA, .888 SV%)

Woll has been red-hot lately, winning 3 straight starts, and he hasn’t lost in regulation in the past 8 starts since Dec. 20 at the Nashville Predators. He is 3-0-1 with a 2.64 GAA and .912 SV% with 1 SO in 5 starts in January, too. On the road, he is 4-4-1 with a 2.76 GAA and .914 SV% in 9 starts on the road.

Hill is expected to return from a lower-body injury. He has been on the Injured Reserve since suffering an LBI on Oct. 20 against the Carolina Hurricanes.

Maple Leafs at Golden Knights picks and predictionsPrediction

Golden Knights 4, Maple Leafs 3

The GOLDEN KNIGHTS (-135) aren’t a bad play as moderate favorites at home.

The Maple Leafs had been hot, including a win in Denver against the red-hot Colorado Avalanche, but they were trampled by the Mammoth in Utah to cool them off a bit. Can Toronto be trusted? VGK has won 5 in a row, outscoring the opposition 23-12 in the win streak.

The Maple Leafs +1.5 (-220) will cost you more than 2 times your potential return, if you’d like a little insurance, and you cannot bring yourself to take Toronto straight up.

On the flip side, the Golden Knights -1.5 (+180) have won 3 of the past 4 games by 2 or more goals, so, if anything, VGK would be worth a look. Of course, 4 of the past 7 games by Vegas have been decided by a single goal, too, so it’s best to shy away.

AVOID.

OVER 6 (-125) is the lean, but go with a half-unit play at most.

The Over has cashed in 3 of the past 5 games for Vegas, while going 5-3 in the past 8 outings, and 9-4 in the past 13 outings.

For Toronto, the Leafs have had a total of 7 goals in each of the first 2 games, on the road, while going 4-2-1 in the past 7 road outings.

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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